Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

looks maybe a tad late for the start..but a few hours..no bickering here..lol.

 

brilliant brook...brilliant. wtg! great move.

 

Heres the deal..as you guys know...I never toot my own horn and NEVER change where Im leaning...never. Well...maybe I toot my own horn a few times a year.....but understand...Im a model guy..and i pick and choose the models i like and sometimes i like the temps on one model..and the precip numbers on another model..and the track on another model..so is the case with this storm.

For the first time this year..Im kind of wondering why so many people are hedging down numbers and its all because of the mix thing. If this is a solid storm...its 12 to 24 up and down the coast from VA to Maine..up and down the coast.

The track is textbook benchmark...but the high..the cold source we have just experienced is what the fear is the big numbers. Its retreating like George Costanza after he get out of the pool...cbg will get that one.

So what do you do? A storm this big creates its own cold air through the strength of bringing cold air down the surface..but is it so strong that its pulling in ocean air?

There is no doubt NYC could have mixing issues...but still get over a foot..easily.

So what do I do here..lol..Im begging you..what do I do. I have never been this confused with a storm.

If Im right..no pats on the back fellas..this is just gut instinct that can sink a ship and not knowledge..just watching huge storms of the past. Even the blizzard of 96 had sleet mixed in for areas.

So you dont pansy out and you stick with the gut...and the gut says everyone east of i95 gets 12 to 18 at least and those east...might have mixing problems but still get a good thump of front end snow.

 

NOW GUYS..EASY HERE...THE NAM IS ALWAYS VERY ROBUST WITH SNOW AMOUNTS..BUT SOMETIMES NOT..but do you understand the problem Im having with this mixing stuff? Over 2 feet of snow for central eastern jersey? Again...THE NAME USUALLY ADDS ON 2 TO 5 INCHES

 

AND THEN YOU HAVE THE GFS? HUH? Its basically saying oh yes..huge storm..but it wants to take a nap between MD and CONN. This map has nothing to do with temps..it has everything to do with the GFS and Miller A storms.

 

and while the GFS is doing this...its also showing this as the storm..1 plus 1 is 3..no..5.

This is a HUGE storm off the coast..just doesnt add up;

 

GG...very very possible...very bud.

But not usually with miller a storms passing to the east. I just dont see how NYC goes over to mix to keep numbers down to 3 to 6...just dont see it.

 

now you see that storm over the great lakes? Jonny..thats your last hope bud..see how they intertwine? That is the only thing to kick the big numbers to the coast...that is a low chance..but a chance.

Thats the closest I have seen it.

 

and then..from our NWS..This forecast if not possible..not possible at all.
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Wednesday Night Snow likely, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. East wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Thursday Snow. High near 36. Northeast wind 8 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Thursday Night Snow likely, mainly before 10pm. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Blustery, with a northwest wind 16 to 21 mph becoming west 9 to 14 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

This forecast is not possible..either say mixed..or no...because you cant just get 3 to 7 inches and no mix. EVERY model has over and inch and a HALF over precip...so its physically impossible to have these numbers.

Guys..here is the real deal..VERY WET HEAVY SNOW..VERY WET HEAVY SNOW...and thats the worst news. This is a snowblower every 4 hours type of snow...wait until the end..and we will be calling CMAN to do our driveways with that bull he had down there.