Thinking about it more, RGIII is the toughest for me to grade. I guess if I imagine I'm redrafting them, RGIII looked different coming off an injury and the rumors surrounding how he caused some power struggle in WAS, that all looks bad. But how would he look in a system like Chip Kelly in PHI? Fast paced offense that helps the QB and RGIII limited his INTs overall in WAS. The offense also becomes more dynamic if the QB is a threat to turn the corner and beat defenders with speed instead of just McCoy. Would be interesting, although it could open up RGIII to more injuries. More plays and what not. RGIII and Foles are two toughest I have figuring out. Will be interesting to see if Foles can keep his INT % ridiculously low. We've seen QBs do it in the past and then see their INT % bounce back to their career averages afterwards, but there are cases like Brady and Rodgers who have kept their INT % in the 1s for a good majority of recent years. Foles was ridiculous over the top keeping it under 1
RGIII is a running QB with good touch but he's going to be injured most of his career because he's not that big and he's already been jammed up a couple of times. Foles is a system QB who just has it. I wish the Jets had traded for him last year. We had some pieces that were very attractive at the time. Foles reminds me of Tom Brady both in how I perceived him coming out of college and in how obviously wrong I was as soon as he got a chance to actually play. He's got it.
I would say better than just good touch. I always thought his freshman year he could advance as a QB even when he lost his athleticism since he was a great pocket passer. I think he never was fully healed from his knee and you could tell with the inconsistency of his footwork and stepping into throws in the pocket this year. Do you mean system QB in a bad way? It has a negative connotation.
Luck has got such a heavy load to carry though. He's following in the footsteps of the most prolific passer of all time, a guy who took the Colts to the playoffs 9 years in a row and 11 out of 12. That's just a very hard act to follow given the year to year dynamics in the NFL. I think in ten years we're going to look back at Andrew Luck's career and think he was a very good QB but he never turned into the guy we expected. He has two years in with the Colts now and 46 passing TD's in a wide-open passing era. Peyton Manning had 52 in '98 and '99. He led the Colts to 423 points and the #3 ranking in 1999. This last season the Colts finished 14th in scoring with Luck under center.
Foles has a good arm and what he wants to do is drop back and throw a high percentage pass around the hashmarks. If the safeties come up to take those away he throws one deep up the middle to punish them. You can tell a highly effective passer when he can throw the number of balls Foles throws within 5 yards of the hashmarks without getting picked off. I'm just so glad the Pats don't have him. It would suck like hell for Belichik to have a junior Brady clone waiting in the wings. BTW, I don't think he's as good as Brady but he's going to be very good as long as the Eagles give him good physical targets to throw at that can make some yards after the catch.
As strictly a QB. Luck. Wilson Foles Tannenhill RGIII (I suspect RGIII may bounce back but this year without the ability or threat to run he just wasn't good in the pocket without the Read Option available to him.
Steve Young was able to get that monkey off his back, why can't Luck? Luck cut down his interceptions in half, and he was still performing well when Reggie Wayne went down. Once they get some weapons and a running game, I think statistically he could really put up some great #s. So far, Luck played well and his teams has made the playoffs in the first 2 years. There are different roads to greatness no doubt about it.
Andrew Luck is very overrated. More so than his INT numbers which can be alarming, I am concerned about his accuracy which is poor. There's this perception out there that he belongs among the tops in the league in QB discussion. I certainly don't think so. I think the jury is still out big time for that kid. He's had a lot of - for lack of a better term - "luck" come his way. For games decided by one possession, he is an insane 15-2 or something like that. That's an element of randomness that will not hold up. Even the greats are closer to 50-50 in that regard. He has been making up for his poor accuracy by completing the deep ball - which is nice, but it will catch up to him. Teams will limit that. He takes too many chances, presses too much and has below average accuracy. Honestly in a way, he reminds me of a younger Mark Sanchez. There was a lot of randomness / luck in Sanchez's early career that led to many calling him clutch like Luck. But the accuracy, poor decision making, etc. caught up to him. I could see it doing the same with Luck. Anybody rating those QBs from 2012 has to have Wilson Ranked #1, how can you not? I understand he had a great team around him, but he has done his part as well. Very accurate, poised, plays under control and makes the plays they need when it's time. When it's all said and done, for all the fan fare attributed to this class, I could see him really being the only big prize. (RG3 injury problem would be to blame) My rankings: Wilson (sizable gap) Foles maybe (one year is not enough) Luck RG3 (if not for his injury he'd be higher - he's a huge question mark) Tannehill
I think he's overrated if people are putting him in the Brees, Brady, Manning, Rodgers "elite" tier which I don't think any QB outside of those 4 should be put in right now. Quick definition, my reasoning of "elite" is that you play well enough to help your team make the playoffs and in doing so also cover major flaws in your team. These 4 seem to do it consistently that no other QB has right now. Anyways if you put him in that group I defined, definitely overrated. Besdies that, you are correct on one possession games. That's why their Pythagorean win total was well above what it should be. This link I read yesterday actual mentions the Colts and how they bucked the trend as they overachieved last year but kept the pace instead of regressing http://www.footballperspective.com/pythagenpat-records-in-2013/. It will be interesting if they can flip the trend again. At least through Nov. 2013, throwing the deep ball statement is not completely accurate. http://regressing.deadspin.com/charts-who-are-the-best-deep-passers-in-the-nfl-1469917039 Wilson takes more shots than him down the field, so if it's going to be shut down for Luck, the same has to be said for Wilson. And Wilson has a very strong run game to help in PA while the Colts had in my mind a bust of a RB in Richardson. Football outsiders is down for me, but if I remember correctly Luck led in the league in dropped INTs in 2012. However, in 2013 he cut his INT % down to 1.6%. The adjusted INTs are not up for 2013 yet, but I find it hard to believe he would lead the league again in dropped INTs. If he does, I will start to rethink what I think of him, but I don't think that will be the case. In my head, I pretended the NFL is having a redraft, contracts don't matter, how would I rank the QBs if I was drafting for my team. The way I ranked them is how I would draft them if I'm building a team. If I have a set team in place like the 2009 Jets or something, what Wilson was able to do and adjust with SEA, I take him right away. But if we have a flat, 0 other team members right now, and I have to pick a QB, I'm still taking Luck ahead of Wilson. I could very well be wrong about this. Maybe being in a system that allows Wilson to pick and choose his spots will get him to develop better than Luck. Maybe the Colts mismanage Luck and send him down the Stafford path where they just ask him to throw, throw, throw and that's their game plan. But if I was ranking/drafting them, I would still go Luck Wilson Foles RGIII Tannehill Cousins. As I said earlier, I actually think RGIII is the hardest to rank because of his injury and the supposed power struggle within WAS that he was allegedly part of. The other problem is I don't think RGIII was fully healed. Foles is another question mark but man his ability to avoid mistakes, while can urt the team at times, is pretty impressive. EDIT: Overall though, I think you bring up some key points about Luck. The one possession wins is staggering. That has to drop eventually, and will people get over influenced by wins/losses instead of judging how Luck plays the game? The other thing is the dropped INTs. That isn't up yet, but if he leads the league again, well Luck is Lucky so far . You bring up great points though. Wait and see for him. I agree overall, if people act like he's a top QB in the league, he's not there yet. Off the top of my head, no way was he a top 5 QB this year. Also off the top of my head, I would say he doesn't make the top 10 either, but that one I'm not as sure about as top 5. Maybe he sneaks in at #10 or 9.
Andrew Luck # of regular-season games with more than 1 INT: 1 6 INT's in 5 regular-season losses (including 3 against STL) 5 offensive 4th Quarter drives resulting in Wins, including 3 in the last 6 mins IND O-Line ranked 24th overall and 28th in PB by PFF (although SEA's ranked 26th overall) Despite playing at Home in a Dome, in Outdoor Temp <40 F, Luck produced: CMP ATT YDS CMP% AVG LNG TD INT SACK RAT 55 83 567 66.3 6.83 69 5 0 1 105.8 He also played better Outdoors than Indoors, despite playing slightly better at Home than Away (discrepancy due to horrendous game indoors @ STL). BY QUARTER CMP ATT YDS CMP% AVG TD INT SACK RAT ATT YDS AVG LNG TD 1st QUARTER 95 160 1,110 59.4 6.94 4 3 5 81.0 6 35 5.8 17 0 2nd QUARTER 98 169 1,006 58.0 5.95 6 1 15 84.6 16 75 4.7 12 0 3rd QUARTER 83 134 942 61.9 7.03 8 2 8 96.7 17 150 8.8 29 2 4th QUARTER 67 107 764 62.6 7.14 5 3 4 87.9 24 117 4.9 28 2 Most interestingly though (at least in my opinion): Luck threw over 30 passes in 12 games and still managed to produce this line-- CMP ATT YDS CMP% AVG TD INT SACK RAT Attempts 31-40 of game 68 102 802 66.7 7.86 9 2 0 111.6
On top of the 30+ passes in a game, the majority of them came without Reggie Wayne at WR. He threw 43 against MIA 35 against JAX, 38 against DEN (when Wayne got hurt) and then after Wayne was out the remaining 9 games of the season: 40 47 36 39 32 46 32 37 37 I would have to look at the Colts season more closely, but it seems odd airing it out more once Wayne got hurt. I'm sure there's a reason for the shift, but immediately seeing that it's odd
Very good post. A well written rebuttal. You are one of the best posters here. I appreciate the links - some great stuff there. I guess I would say I just have to disagree with you on Luck/Wilson. I still rank Wilson way higher... I really like the accuracy from him. I think Wilson would be successful most anywhere - although having the talent he does have is certainly helpful. We both seem to agree a lot of Luck's successes may be fools gold at the moment. You shot down my deep pass argument pretty good, but I still think just watching him, you get the feeling like he can't do much and then hits the deep pass helping him. Maybe it's not to the degree it feels like though. T.Y. Hilton is the real deal on that team and is going to help him for many years. The dropped INT stat is meaningful. I remember when Sanchez was playing well and yet led in that stat, most, including myself said it was meaningless. But it meant a whole lot once teams started latching onto that thing. Not saying the same will happen with Luck, but it is concerning...
Thank you! I enjoyed your posts too :beer: Yeah I'm just not able to make the leap for Wilson. I think he could be successful anywhere, but I'm not too sure how successful he would be. I definitely understand where you're coming from. The accuracy, the pocket awareness, the ability to keep his head up when scrambling. I was surprised to see this year, Wilson had 12 fumbles and Luck actually had a lower INT %. I don't know if the fumbles will be an issue going forward, but something to keep an eye on. Yeah I'm excited to see how Hilton progresses. Hopefully Wayne can come back healthy and help out Hilton. Wayne must be a great WR to learn from. Agree on fool's gold. It's hard to figure out. The team overachieved in 2012 and Luck led the league in dropped INTs, but then he cut his INTs down and the team overall kept on succeeding. The one possession wins kept on happening and the 2013 Colts became an outlier. Another season, more time to watch Luck play. Oh definitely dropped INT is meaningful. I wrote it off as dumb in 2010 with Sanchez too. But the more I read about it, it's more adjusted INTs than just dropped INTs and there is a set formula and definitions they use to describe it. It's just a good way to judge tipped INTs and INTs throw right at a defender, etc. Luck severely cut down on his INTs from 2012 to 2013. It will shed a lot of light when we see the adjusted INTs numbers from Luck for 2013 if the INTs were really cut down or again he got some luck. It will be interesting going forward. I do think overall Wilson is in the best system to develop as a QB with Foles second. To be honest, seeing all these QBs will be fun. It was fun to watch Big Ben, Eli, and Rivers and they're now veterans. Hopefully this group have similar lengthy careers.
If you had to pick one of those guys to be your QB for the next decade it's going to be Luck hands down. Wilson is very good but he would be less effective in a system where he had to throw the ball 30+ times a game and carry the offense on his back for long stretches of the game. He's also much smaller than Luck and less likely to withstand the pounding that the NFL delivers over time. Nobody else taken in that draft belongs in the conversation with Luck. Foles and RGIII maybe in the conversation with Wilson but not clearly so.
