Tannenbaum's problem was that he believed the draft was about getting specific players at all costs. In fact the draft is about getting the best players available when you pick. Teams that try to cherry-pick players out of the draft wind up where the Jets are now. Teams that just take the BPA wind up where the Seahawks are now.
I'm not saying he would or not but I think judging our GM on what he did last year is misleading. I think the consensus going into last season was to take this season and evaluate going forward. I think they knew they weren't going to be in contention and had a lot of $ coming off the books in 2014, so they wanted to be more conservative. I really think we haven't seem the real GM as of yet.
If we were a playoff team every year with a few pieces to add then I would trade up. In our case, we need all the picks we can get.
I think it's easy to point out Idzik is more conservative in nature than Tanny. The money available is for Free Agents signings and keeping ahead of the Jet's finances to build the team. I'm just astounded how people talk about trading picks like it's going to happen. Trading in the draft is generally the exception not the rule.
What we saw last year overall was damage control with a twist. The cap cuts were easy. The renegotiations with Holmes and Cromartie probably not quite as easy. The draft strategy was to try to rebuild the offensive line on the cheap while getting a few blue-chip prospects elsewhere. The free agent strategy was purely damage control (the twist), keeping the cap stable and setting up a deep 2014 draft. What we see this year is what Idzik and company really have in mind. They have cap space and picks and a few more fairly easy cuts to make. Whatever happens with all that is going to tell us what the plan is.
We'll have likely 12 picks Most likely not all 12 will make the roster so I wouldn't mind trading up if the value is there
Sigh. LISTEN!!! Jets DO have 12 picks - BUT only 4 in the top 100. [Usually 3 - but Revis trade resulted in 1 extra at round 3.] 4 extra comes in 5th (1) and 6th (3). And you can't trade the comp picks away either. In other words, Jets SHOULD NOT TREAT THEMSELVES LIKE THEY HAVE 10 PICKS IN TOP 100. They don't. [Trading up certainly qualifies as one of these stupid behaviors.] Look it up yourself. It does not look pretty - I warned you. http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?teamId=3430&type=team
With all the factors taken into account I would say the only way I see the jets trading up is for mike Evans... And it's only a few spots up to get in front of Baltimore who have a need at wide receiver as well. And I would not be mad at all
That only shows our picks and not how we faired against other teams. Picks beyond the second have a less than 40% chance of sticking in the NFL more a couple of years. For late rounds its in the teens.
No way am I trading up for Mike Evans. Trading up can be done occasionally, but more often than not, it hurts the team in the long run. No scouting department is flawless, and if you whiff on that pick, you're set back for years because it means you wasted all those other picks, too. The teams that are in the Super Bowl year after year have quarterbacks and quality depth due to strong drafting. The Jets trading up for a receiver right now neither gives us quality depth nor does it give us a chance at a long-term quarterback answer. If Watkins fell to the teens, it might be close to the proper value where trading up becomes an option. But in our scenario, there has to be such a ridiculous gap in value between the player you're trading up for and the next best player to even consider the move. The Jets don't have the talent base to not take as many chances as possible at getting potential answers at multiple positions.
From 2001 to 2012 the Jets found two players in the 5th round or later who started more than half their games in more than one season. Erik Coleman and Matt Slauson. As a comparison the Bills found 5 players who did that, including Kyle Williams and Stevie Johnson. The Fins found 5 players including Yeremiah Bell and Reshad Jones. You have to find a few long-term starters in the late rounds. If you cannot do that then you're putting a lot of pressure on the depth chart in terms of the one and two year vet free agent work arounds or the high priced slot filler. The Jets haven't drafted a long-term starter from the 5th round on during the post-Parcells era. They used 27 picks in the class from 2001 to 2010 without ever getting a guy who started 4 seasons for them.
I'd still like to trade back at this point. We desperately need depth everywhere but D line. If we could nab an extra 3rd it would help our franchise much more than giving up a third to get a slightly better player imo. Right now I feel like WR/TE is our biggest need and past experience says that the sweet spot on value for that position is NOT in the top half of the 1st round.
IMO(and I've said this all along..The Jets should stay put at 18 and HOPE that Kelvin Benjamin is still there. Draft him at 18 ( He's easily just as talented as Mike Evans with longer reach and a MUCH HIGHER ceiling). Then the Jets should either draft a beat of a TE (ASJ is the only guy i'd take at 69), a safety, or another Wide Receiver in round 2...Landry,Beckham Jr.,DaVante Adams,Jordan Matthews or Paul Richardson & then with our 1st 3rd round pick I thik we should draft my favorite TE in the draft ..C.J. Fiedorowicz..With our 2nd 3rd round pics, we should draft either an olb(I personally like the idea of dropping Jackson Jeffcoat into our LB'ing core, but if he's not there then you take either Jordan Tripp or my personal favorite OLB Adrien Hubbard(Dude's 6'6 255 lbs and a BEAST. Then in the 4th round I'd try and get Stanley Jean Baptiste and hopefully we have another 4th rounder. With that pick i'd take Dri' Archer(a serious offensive weapon...Percy Harvin meets De'anthony Thomas. Round 5 Draft an OG...Dakoda Dozier or an Ot Seanthrel Henderson(i'm really big on this guy) 6. Take another CB or S...Eitther Antone Nexum or Deion Belue. 7.Tak Josh Huff at WR... My Perfect Draft looks like this for the NY Jets. Round 1)WR FSU 6'5 235 Kelvin Benjamin...if he's not available and Pryor is, I take him at safety Round 2) WR Colorado 6'1 172 lbs. Unless Austin Sefarian Jenkins is gone(which he will be) Round 3 a.) TE IOWA 6'6 262..If you don't believe in this guy I challenge you to go watch his highlights..He's a STUD at TE with super smooth..If he isn't there then I'd draft one of Jordan Tripp or Adrien Hubbard...Olb's Montana and Alabama respectively Round 3 b.)Craig Loston,Ahmad Dixon or my personal favorite, Terrance Brooks Round 4) CB Nebraska 6'3 215 Great,physical,skilled corner(watch his highlight reel..or CB UTAH Keith McGill..Also very skilled corner and even more physical than Stanley Round 4) RB/WR 5'7 175 lbs...The most DYNAMIC & EXPLOSIVE player in the entire draft IMO..We'd be doing ourself a disservice to not draft this guy Round 5) Best Available Offensive Lineman...Dakoda Dozier or Seanthrel Henderson(Different positions I know, but i'm high on both) Round 6) CB Nevon Lawsom, Antone Exum or Deion Belue or another LB Round 7) WR Josh Huff or BPA & I'd take Kenny Shaw as an UDFA. FA Signings.. WR- jeremey Maclin/Emmanuel Sanders & James Jones TE-Dennis Pitta...(Draft Marcel Jensen if C.J.can't be had. OL-Jon Asamoah or (yeah I want him) Richie Incognito, and Austin Howard OLB- Jason Worilds and Calvin Pace CB-Walter Thurrmond, Alterraun Verner, Brent Grimes, and/or Sam Shields (hopefully 2) S-Jairus Byrd or T.J Ward, wouldn't be upset with Antoine Bethea or Donte Whitner Cut Holmes, Sanchez, Garrard, Lankster,etc. Now I'm not crazy enough to believe that most of these moves will be made, but if they DO have an offseason similir to this then I will be an ECSTATIC JETS FAN!!!
As others have said, your not including Kerley, who has been one of the only viable receiving options we have had the last couple of years. That bumps it up to 3. Now your list is also not including the games started by Holmes, which cost a 5th round pick. Nor the 5th rounder spent to acquire Jenkins or the in the Edwards deal. When your constantly without those picks of course you are going to hit less. Quit going off of whole numbers and saying we are worse, start using a percentage or just find a site with the info you are looking for. Your just skewing stats to fit your argument the way you are going about it.
I do not want the Jets to trade up. However, I do not understand how people can say that trading up is automatically a mistake. We traded up for Revis, Id say that worked out, and if Julio Jones can bounce back from his injury, Id say that Atlanta cashed out on that deal too
