Damn it cbg..how did I have you wrong????? you are closer to the tappan zee bridge right? I always thought you were closer to rockland county east of 287 in ny!
with that said CBG they probably have you right. I always had you west about 20 miles. Yes, 4-8..but that far north and the quick hit early...you have to get at least 6..maybe 8
Dead on GD..we just used are last one. Good point. If the Sunday storm comes, then we are looking at adding days. There will be more snow days...too many modeled still. If the one on Sunday/Monday happens, you come into play down there too.
yes Jay North of west nyack,,,pop on by anytime and I will give you a cold beverage or on a nite like tonite a hot beverage, you are always welcome,,,that said thanks again
ok...SHORT TERM MODEL BUT SNOW MODEL. BEWARE: These models sometimes have a real problem differentiating sleet and snow..and while I know this will make some happy, I dont know if I would buy NYC getting 8 to 10 inches. What this map tells me is the concern we talked about for major icing is real. So take this map and use it for snow up north...but be careful and use it more just knowing the yellows and oranges mean heavy snow and ice:
CBG...one day I will take you up on that..and same for you heading down this way. Perhaps one night a lot of us can get together for a Jet night...Brook and I have discussed this many times. We will do it in the future bud.
What all those oranges tell me down by CMAN and central PA is that even if CMAN and those areas go over to sleet/freezing rain..they will get pounded.
Looking at the short term models, the only thing saving some from a devasting ice storm (and thats not a lock..not at all) is the speed of this storm. Its basically a 10 hour event for many. With that said, the short term models...12 hour models..are showing a changeover for many south of NY State except extreme north Jersey...but never a changeover to rain. Some that switch over will get 6 or 7 hours of sleet/freezing rain..with temps in the upper 20s. Some will get the ice storm. And if anyone tells you they know exactly where that will setup..they are a liar. You just cant do it. If you are within 30 miles you did great. Right now I80 south to west of I95...to the PA/NJ border is a good bet..but not a great bet. But you get the general drift.
Im sure some have you have seen this but NJ under a state of emergency for tomorrow. I dont not make fun of this at all...but boy oh boy..christie loves these. I do totally agree though..totally on this one. edit: Article: Gov. Chris Christie once again declared a state of emergency in advance of the storm headed to the Garden State later tonight. Christie also authorized the closing of state offices tomorrow for non-essential employees. “Tonight’s winter weather is expected to produce snow and ice, creating hazardous travel conditions and affecting areas throughout the state that are already recovering from yesterday’s storm,” said Christie. “I’ve authorized state officials to continue all necessary actions to assist, and my Administration will continue monitoring conditions throughout the remainder of the storm. I encourage all New Jerseyans to drive carefully and remain off the roads if possible so that our first responders and public safety officials can safely respond to any emergency situations.” The storm is expected to dump up to another 10 inches of snow on New Jersey, followed by sleet and rain. Forecasters are warning of the danger presented by up to a half inch of ice on tree limbs and power lines. The storm is expected to begin around midnight and continue into the morning. It follows yesterday's storm, which dumped up to a foot of powder in some portions of the state. It's followed by yet another storm expected to hit the state this weekend.
Marshall and Jonny..well part of jonny. Here is your snow forecast from your own NWS...SO come on Marshall..even showing you the love up there..and I hate "up there".
Here is a futurecast for 3am. You can see the dark blue...real heavy snow right off the bat. CMAN getting an ice storm it seems..but you get the drift. If you decide to wake up at 8am, you miss the heavy snow..1 or maybe even 2 inches an hour the first several hours.
Anytime FO. Tough call..thats starts the tough area. Would think a quick thump of snow..perhaps 3 to 5 before a switch over to sleet..and then freezing rain. Your area is in the section where ice could be..could be a major problem. Let me see what your NWS has for you.
F.O. I mean..thats a lot of ice bud. Alot of ice: From your NWS: Overnight Snow before 4am, then snow and sleet. Low around 31. Light northeast wind increasing to 5 to 9 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Wednesday Rain, freezing rain, and sleet before noon, then rain or freezing rain likely between noon and 3pm, then a chance of rain after 3pm. High near 35. Northeast wind 10 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.3 of an inch possible. New sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
