FOR THE SUNDAY MONDAY STORM (sorry for shouting but too much going on to get confused) Here is the discussion from the NWS...I will bold in my remarks so we understand this losing the storm I have talked about: TREND WITH MUCH OF THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN AWAY FROM INTENSE PHASED ENERGY PIVOTING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SE OF THE REGION (you guys get it, they are saying the trend for a storm phasing and becoming huge)..WITH INSTEAD A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WITH WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH LOW.( a flatter zonal flow that produces no such storm but a weak quick mover) THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. a bunch of different runs from the same model BUT 12Z OPER GFS AND A PORTION OF ECMWF/GEM/NCEP ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AS INTERROGATED BY SBU CSTAR ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY...STILL INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW CLOSE TO THE COAST. PRIOR EXPERIENCE IS TO NOT JUMP ON MID RANGE GUIDANCE TRENDS..(what we have talke about..let the local media say its now not happening..but we have seen this all winter of storms the models lose...then find) .BUT INSTEAD MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH GOING FORECAST...AND THEN FINE TUNE FORECAST AS SHORTWAVES IN QUESTION BECOME BETTER SAMPLED 2 TO 3 DAYS OUT FROM THE EVENT. SO POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO EXISTS FOR THE SUN/MON PERIOD...BUT SPECIFICS IN TERMS OF SNOW/RAIN AMOUNTS AND ACCOMPANYING IMPACTS CAN NOT BE PREDICTED WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE AS OF YET. Around 10pm will be on to give a final look at the overnight storm. Just checked some future-cast models and its seems for those north of i80, the storm comes in so fast..and dump so much snow in the first 4 hours, that many will get over 6 inches even with a switch over. Another good thing about this fear of icing we have been talking about is how fast this comes through..maybe it keeps the icing down. Hope so.
Ok..just took a quick look at the short range models and this thing about the storm coming in fast and hard is going to win over the major icing...which means we need to revisit the snow amounts..up..up...up. For north Jersey on south..and for NYC..and perhaps western L.I. If you go by the short range models and there is a lot of agreement with them..here you: CMAN: Sorry, still lower at 2 to 4 and then sleet/freezing rain North Jersey: 7-11 then maybe sleet for the last 2 or 3 hours. Lower Hudson Valley: 10-14 Mass: 10-14 pretty much everywhere except within 30 miles of the coast. NYC and Western L.I. 5-8 and then heavy sleet. The reason for this change is good news for the icing..very good news. Now thats for parts north..there will still be an inbetween area where the sleet/freezing rain comes in faster and that seems to be central Jersey and still could be NE Jersey along with NYC and parts of L.I. As far as NYC..it would take a lot to have an ice storm there. Now, good way to know if your area is about to enter a tough ice time is twofold. 1. Of course...the sleet turns to rain. 2. The key..temps are in the upper 20s..not 31 or 32. Freezing rain will not be that dangerous with borderline freezing temps unless its a drizzle..this will not be a drizzle. Temps need to be at least a few degrees under freezing. SO..overall good news for snow lovers and ice hater north of i80..more snow and less ice hopefully.
yep GD..this is an inch at least event. I think some areas up north will start as snow around 3am..and have near 8 inches by 8am..thats how hard this comes in. Its only a 10 hour storm for the most part...another real quick hitter..perhaps the hardest and quickest out of all of them.
Hiker..i was wrong..looking at that now on radar that is the storm that this storm hands its energy off too..its the one that will keep the storm more snow if it take command. Here you can see it really filling in along the coast. LINK: http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/northeast-region/weather-radar?play=1
Just started snowing in Central Ohio. Radar was showing snow for a few hours, but I guess it wasn't cold enough to reach the ground. It's been snowing moderately to the north of us for a few hours. The divide line in Ohio is I-70, to the south a sleet mix. Seems to be moving fast to the east/north east. Huge storm that is predicting an inch an hour and mix with freezing rain. Should clear out here by sunrise.
Thanks for all that you do, jay. Many schools around here have called it already for tomorrow... not mine. Here's hoping.
NWS site says 2-4 for me tonight with ice and then another 2-4 wednesday,,,,,,,,id rather listen to Jay,,,just sayin
Yep Drew, we got the call at 7pm for no school. Midterms right now too. So thats two cancels for the boys during midterms that gives them more time to study? They always ask me the day before..school or no school..I knew (big deal..we all knew) no school but Mom gets pissed at me because they stop studying so the call comes and my oldest son says...Dad, you dont get credit for that one..you said you were not sure...the youngest one says...Nah..mom would have killed him if he said no school. So the youngest gets women already. I cant see how anyone west of Central L.I. gets school. The only reason all of L.I. might not get the call is the quick change to rain that may happen there. Checking short term models now and will be on for at least a few hours and NP Drew..anytime.
The dump in the early AM might bring more cman..it really might. Just that models bring in the upper level warm air quicker down by you and then it drags slower as it moves north..to a point near the lower hudson valley where it stalls except east of the Mass/NY border.
Great pick up WW on the bolded. Its called VIRGA. I remember a storm 2 years ago that was called the VIRGA storm by weather geeks. It came in and looked like it was snowing for 7 or 8 hours..but the atmosphere was soooo dry, it never reached the ground. People to the north were screaming. The radar was full...but nothing to the ground. It usually happens with all storms in the first half hour to an hour until the ground level moistens up enough.
I work at a hospital in Stony Brook and they cancelled classes before 1 PM.... Love reading your stuff Jay.... Helps us medical residents stay on top of things.
lol...very proud of you guys..you listen and learn. You guys will make me useless by next winter...nice pick up FJF.
Great name..WUT...thank you very much. Great job for what you do for others my friend. Anytime I can help you out just pm me or post here.
Jay,,new city,,,,I believe thats LHV but are you talking north of me when u say Lower Hudson Valley ? Do you consider me NWNJ ?
Ok..very important map here..and very important the way we read it. This is a total precip map..NOT A SNOW MAP. So you can see the size of this storm..and the high amounts of liquid precip it will dump. This is the biggest storm of the year precip wise. So you can see my concern for people that turn to frozen precip for a long time:
No no...I had you right. You are bordering on NJ correct? Buddy, i think you do better than 4..there low number...I put you at at least high number of 8. Let me check.
