Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Ok, just looked at models and have seen this setup before.

Bottom line is that this is a dangerous storm with icing. I think, looking at model temps, that the snow may be overdone south of the NJ/NY border.

I would decrease the totals I put for all areas except north of NJ/PA. Just think by time everyone gets up in those areas, you will be hearing the ping of sleet. Happens with these storms where there is not a solid cold air mass to the north. I could be wrong but most areas will get 4 to 8..and then sleet.

Areas to the north will get there 8-12 AT LEAST. Regardless, this is a no drive day for many and I would plan it that way.

Then we turn our attention to the weekend storm and think the models will start to agree more once we get rid of this storm..so figure models have a decent idea of whether we get a full blown blizzard or not by tomorrow night. Only thing that will need to be worked out is how far west and north it gets. Right now everyone on this site is in the snow spots and heavy snow spots.

 

lol...good point GG...so lets break it down.

We just finished the first of 4 storms modeled.

Tonight: storm #2 big ice thread from central PA to NJ/PA border. L.I. looks to eventually go to rain..as does the city but when? North of the PA/NJ border could get 8..further south..to 12 or more..further north. THIS HAS ICE STORM WRITTEN ALL OVER IT FOR SOME...SO those that prepare for stuff like this..get the gas and generators ready.

Storm #3 This Sunday night/Monday Could be a huge snow storm for all..could be a blizzard for many...could be slightly out to sea with south of nj/pa getting the big snows. Leaning big storm.

Storm #4 Next Thursday the 13th..been on the models now for 3 days.

 

Really not liking the ice setup here guys and girls. Not at all. I know we all..or most of us..want snow and would love to say north jersey is going to get a huge snowstorm tonight and tomorrow but with the snow that fell yesterday..and then this storm..its screaming power outages.

I would set yourselves up for possible power outages tomorrow. While I know they are saying 8 inches for many areas, really think this turns to a sleet/freezing rain storm for many south of NJ/PA border...at least.

I would prepare for that...and at least you would have it if the storm this Sunday/Monday happens. You guys know I dont throw that out there much and you know that last time I put that out there what happened. Just think the local media isnt concentrating on the ice part. This is a 1 to 1 and a half inch precip storm..meaning all snow would be 10 to 15..so if you are getting only 6 inches of snow, well do the math..thats a lot of ice.

 

Generators are the best..a must Brook.

I really dont know..the answer to that is one model will eventually agree with the other model because if we are sitting here on Friday and no agreement, thats a problem..but that will not happen. I would guess around tomorrow nights outputs, there will be agreement. If the storm the GFS had happens, Newark will have no flights Monday. If the EURO storm happens..there will be delays so either way, its going to be a problem.

Lets see where we are tomorrow at this time..or maybe even tonight a model will fold to the other.

 

Thats this storm...did they say rain? What city again hiker?

 

I will say this..look out your window for those up north here..see all that snow on the trees? Hasnt fallen off yet right? Thats a problem..a big problem.

 

Ok Hiker..this is the radar..thats the little mess to the right of the big blob right? lol..not sure what that is? Problably the warm front ahead of the storm. It will not last long I think.

LINK: http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/southeast-region/weather-radar

 

With this storm no jonnny..other way around. More north brings the warm air aloft...ALOFT north. That is the word for this storm. You can get snow at 40 degrees and you can get freezing rain at 20 degrees. For this storm, the temps are there but the temps above are not after several hours of snow.

So for you, you start out as snow and then go to sleet..once you go to sleet you are not going back to snow..and what you hope for is that it stays sleet for a long time.

Anyone that knows sleet is that it bounces off of everything. Freezing rain sticks to everything. So once you get sleet you do not want to go to freezing rain quickly here. Now for NYC east, it will actually get warm enough for rain I think.

Areas west of I95....guys...not everyone but areas west of I95..10 TO 40 miles west..will get major icing.

So dont buy the big snow numbers unless you are in the Lower Hudson Valley on north. Areas in NW Jersey...poconos...even parts of NNJ will be getting anywhere from 3-7 inches of snow..and then icing.

 

Also, again..not sure about all of your locations but the trees and power lines by my house even with the sun out..are still hanging with snow. Im telling you, this is the perfect storm for disaster with power outages. The snow that will fall overnight will stick to the snow already on the trees and power liness..same kind of snow..and then the sleet will dig into that snow...and then the freezing rain seals the deal..and just adds up weight.

Again, not sure where the ice storm sets up..but its coming big time for some parts of NE PA/NW JERSEY/MAYBE ALL OF NORTH JERSEY/CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONN...AND VERY VERY LOWEST PARTS OF NY STATE.

 

Snow blower guys...get up very early..get the snow that falls overnight outta here. Once the sleet and freezing rain kicks in...its over.

 

Dead on GG...very important.

Latest short term models have NNJ east of lets say around exit 53 on RT 80 getting over 6 inches of snow before sleet.

It comes in very hard and heavy from the beginnig and I doubt any schools and most businesses close tomorrow.

OH...THE STORM NEXT WEEKEND? OUT TO SEA ON MOST MODELS....thats right..out to sea. Now yesterdays storm went bye bye on many models 5 6 days out too..so the question is..do the models grab it back tomorrow night..the night I told you guys the models would understand the pattern after this storm.

So lets see.