Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Discussion in 'BS Forum' started by jaywayne12, Dec 25, 2010.

  1. Marshall76

    Marshall76 Member

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    Boston area is getting snow at a nice clip, probably around 2".
     
  2. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Sounds right Marshal...I would guess NW Mass. got nothing really at all.
     
  3. Marshall76

    Marshall76 Member

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    Friend in Philly is flying to Laguna Beach( I Hate her) on Monday, she was curious how Philly will get hit?
     
  4. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    How much do you hate her? I would tell her, if you really hate her..all is good.

    And then..after she is really pumped for her trip..tell her she is f##$ed.

    If the storm modeled right now comes true, there will be no flights on the east coast on Monday...well...NC north?

    Be on later to talk about it bud.
     
  5. FJF

    FJF 2018 MVP Joe Namath Award Winner

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    stopping here, got about 5"

    thats a good start jay, 19" to go for the week
     
  6. Drew

    Drew Active Member

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  7. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    Wow not sure how much is out there but it was alot,,,,,wet and heavy,,,,thank god for the snow blower ! Even with the blower I broke my ass,,,,i had to make a nice path in the yard. For the dog and then I did a little extra because if we are getting a storm tomorrow it is just going to pile on top of this,,,,,,speaking of Tuesday nite ,,,,,what should we expect " oh great and powerful trend / model reader "
     
  8. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Yep...time to start focusing on Tuesday night Wedensday and might as well just come out with numbers right? lol

    Lower Hudson Valley 9-13 AT LEAST
    NNJ 7-10
    Boston area 8-12
    Western Conn 8-12
    Eastern Conn 4-8
    NYC 4-8
    Long Island 3-6
    Central Jersey 4-7
    South Jersey 1-3
    CMAN and southern PA 2-5

    Now a few have some serious ranges which I hate..but there are still major question marks with mixing issues and rain issues for L.I. and south jersey and CMAN.

    The models keep trending colder and higher so we will have to revisit this tonight and during the day tomorrow.

    BUT THIS IS THE IMPORTANT PART. You could be in an area thats 6-10 lets say and early in the storm you hit 5 and all is looking good and then boom..it turns to sleet. Once that happens, accums are basically over. That will...will..happen for some.

    I doubt the Lower Hudson Valley gets this or north from there. Mass and Hudson Valley could get over a foot easy if all stays the course.

    There will be severe icing for some and that will setup within 20 miles of I95 at some point but mostly all will start out as snow.

    Between those that got around 6 today..and then get a foot Wednesday...and a foot Monday...I dont know about anyone else but after using my blower with this wet stuff, I have no idea where to put the snow if that were to happen..lol. I got around 9 I would say with this storm.

    So, lets see what the models say but earlier today the NWS issued a Winter Storm Watch for my area stating that perhaps 4-8..and now they upped it to 6-10.
     
  9. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    AND FOR THE WEEKEND...i could post future snow maps...wind maps...etc..but lets just post this and study...and learn. This is the storm that keeps popping up on the models. So, safe to say it is a 1 to 2 foot picture...winds over 45...but that means nothing this far out..lets just post this pic and learn from this. Feel free to ask questions...will be on later:

    EDIT: TIME FRAME: IF TRUE, storm would start later sunday evening and end late afternoon Monday.

    [​IMG]
     
    #5209 jaywayne12, Feb 3, 2014
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2014
  10. Cman69

    Cman69 The Dark Admin, 2018 BEST Darksider Poster

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    This may sound like an endorsement, but Ariens makes one hella snowthrower. Got around 9" here and it was the heavy wet variety. Big A took care of it in around 30mins. I'm talking driveways, sidewalks etc.

    Thank God I had a snowthower. I'm not sure if I could have done all of this with a shovel. I laid down a good layer of salt tonite as there's no hard freeze associated with this storm so by tomorrow AM, I should be good to go along with a salt layer already in place for Wednsday's event.

    As far as the weekend's Snowmageddon event, I'm ready for it. Got 3 more bags of salt and a full tank of gas in Big A.

    Jay, you're the best man! If there was a medal, I'd recommend you for it for all the work you do for us!

    Thanks Jay!
     
  11. Brook!

    Brook! Soft Admin...2018 Friendliest Member Award Winner

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    I totally agree with what you say about Jay. We need to thank him in some way.

    By the way, I decided to buy a snowblower and after your endorsement, decided to buy a 28" one but home depot doesn't have it in stock and estimated delivery is February 18. I am at God's mercy if weekend storm turns out to be in the 2 feet range.
     
  12. Greenday4537

    Greenday4537 Well-Known Member

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    No snow accumulation here. Though that'd require it to snow. One co-worker claims he saw flurries but I don't believe him. Just rained all day.
     
  13. Fred Mertz

    Fred Mertz Active Member

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    Western Suffolk, Huntington
     
  14. Cman69

    Cman69 The Dark Admin, 2018 BEST Darksider Poster

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    It may be worth the wait Brook. The timing may not be the best but once you get a Ariens, you'll understand. I have the 21" deluxe and it absolutely chewed thru the wet snow like it was cotton candy. If you're thinking about perhaps another brand, just make sure it has a Briggs/Stratton engine. They're the most reliable in the business and made here in the USA.
     
    #5214 Cman69, Feb 3, 2014
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2014
  15. FJF

    FJF 2018 MVP Joe Namath Award Winner

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    hey jay, fwiw TWC sticking with the wintry mix for the h.v. with 1-3" of snow.

    sounds way off,no?

    edit,and they have the wsw posted warning of 6-12" lol kinda contradictory
     
  16. FJF

    FJF 2018 MVP Joe Namath Award Winner

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    paging dr jaywayne to the control room, dr jaywayne to the control room


    how is this setting up for tonite. does it ease in or are we waking up to the apocalypse tomorrow?
     
  17. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    lol...went to sleep early last night FJF..and man I missed some.

    Right now..well first off..for you..1 to 3? then ice? Ummm..no way jose. You get at least 6 and then the icing..oh the icing. Not sure how far north it makes it but this will be the storm after the changeover.

    Here is a tip for all. Shake those trees that could damage to wires of your house. You an look up today and although it looks like winter wonderland...the snow overnight and then the ice? Loss of power for some tomorrow I would think.

    Ok..give an hour or so. Right now, general 4 to 12...south to north..and then icing south to north.

    Sunday? GFS has the biggest storm in decades..and the EURO has the storm just off the coast and not huge damage. Problem with the EURO is that its done that with EVERY storm this year..about 120 hours out..it loses it..only to get it back 3 or 4 days before.

    So...still on in a big big way.
     
  18. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Stop watching the Weather Channel FJF...they are great once the storm starts but not with their local forecasts...their call for you? Put a zero behind the first number and a 1 in front of the second 1...more like 10 to 13 would make more sense...still checking.
     
  19. Marshall76

    Marshall76 Member

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    Jay, "Biggest storm in decades" could you be a little less of a tease, and give me Boston worst case
     
  20. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    lol..ok...now remember. I wrote "THE GFS BRINGS THE BIGGEST STORM IN DECADES" lol..not me..yet.

    If you go by the GFS model it brings over a foot..some areas over 2 feet of snow from VA to Maine..and yes Boston gets close to 2 feet. It also birngs winds at 35 steady and gusts near 60. Again, just a model run..or now runs.

    The EURO is not buying it TODAY but that has happened before. Still think we have a major storm this weekend.
     

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