The setup as of today CMAN looks to be a changeover to rain for you guys. Its such a huge question mark for 2 huge reasons which we will discuss all week..because the storm on Saturday may have the same setup but further to the south...with your location maybe a more snow and ice setup. Here are the 2 things we will be discussing at nausea all week. 1. This is a miller B storm...meaning the primary storms forms in the Tennessee Valley..or cranks up there..and then heads to the Great Lakes. What happens after that? Because our friend the polar vortex will be in the area of Quebec, storms that head to the Great Lakes get trapped...imagine a basketball full court trap. Ball handler gets to the side court with nowhere to go..so he has to dish off. Same thing with the storm...it has to throw its energy somewhere in order to keep the flow and escape. So where does it throw the energy? Does it? Right now the some major models are saying it really doesnt...but how can that be? Goes against physics. If it does what it should it will throw the energy somewhere between North Virginia or as far north as central Jersey. The lower the toss...the more snow you get. The higher the toss..the better chance many areas transition to rain/ice. Hope that makes sense and if it doesnt..just ask and I will attempt to explain it better. 2. Does the primary storm heading to the Great lakes not head to the Great Lakes but more up the spine..left or right of the Appalachians. If thats the case the toss is easier..and would probably be more south..meaning more snow for the southern areas of the forecast. So to answer your question, I would say the NJ/PA border up north is the battle line for snow freezing rain, sleet against rain. Right now the first storm looks to far north with all the above mentioned to bring you only a front end thump of snow that could range from 2 to 5 inches since the storm will start overnight...with colder temps. The main part of the story is that there is plenty of time...plenty of time to have all of this moot, for if the first storm comes through and changes the dynamics, then we could be talking about a whole different animal. Once the models totally grasp the Monday storm and add to that that this storm located off the west coast spinning: enters USA soil so we can get better info for the models to digest...things could change dramatically...and we could go back to the original forecast of a huge snowstorm for many. A lot would have to change..but that has been the trend all winter long and would not surprise me in the least. Have mentioned this numerous times...Sunday night...we will be able to clear up 2 or 3 upcoming storms much much better. EDIT: I sometimes reread what the hell I write and want to make sure when reading you understand my use of days...lol. When I say Saturday...thats next Saturday. Ok...this is better. I talk about the storm this Monday that stays south of us for the most part. The storm we are talking about is Tuesday night/ Wednesday. Then the storm on Saturday..a week from tomorrow.
and for NYC he is probably right CBG. I mean, if he is not saying things like all storms 5 days out have trended colder and snowier but right now this storm should start as snow and change to rain for those close to I95..THEN he is doing his job. If he came on and said this storm should be mostly rain...and thats it...then he is not. People hear a guy say that and then the models change and everyone says what idiots weather guys are. If you at least take a minute and paint a picture, you leave the door open to still seem to know what the hell you are talking about..lol. Hope that makes sense.
Read an article today about how places like facebook etc had a snowmaggedon chance for next weekend and I remembered the model I posted and thought hell..hope they didnt mean guys like me!! I was very specific that the picture I posted was for the whole week but apparently, people were posting pics like that and saying it was the all from one storm next Saturday. Have to be very careful with this stuff..very careful...lol.
and now the latest GFS 24 hour snow totals for the Tuesday night Wednesday storm. As much as we can say this is still far out...hope you guys get why its stupid for anyone to just say its just going to change to rain and this is a nothing storm. I mean..check out these numbers:
and what do we learn from the above map..it trended south...the primary storm caved to a more southern TOSS and without even looking at a model on these numbers yet, its easy to see the secondary storm formed off the coast of South Jersey/DE. This is why this storm has always been one of huge potential...and this map does not even take into account icing..which many areas in pink and yellow will still have deal with.
One more thing I should add...I post these model outputs so that when I say it looks like a foot for some...you guys get how I come up with this...and where. Most importantly these are model runs..and we look at the next model run and see if precip field moves north...south...shrinks etc. But they are fantasy runs...and of course will not be the final solution. Sometimes this far out they could be closer to final runs. If you put a gun to my head and asked me where do the runs go from here..I would just say colder and hope you dont pull the trigger with a vague answer like that. I just believe you have to take past storms and how the models handled them this far out and say that this will come further south with the bigger numbers..and that means further south with the icing problems too. We can Sunday night, then take the model runs and post pics of each one in a single post and see whats trending...and get a decent idea what might happen. Hope that makes sense!
Jay it all makes sense thanks,,,ps met Lee Goldberg today down on Bway he was kicking field goals,,no lie,,,anyways I call out to him get his attention and say,,," hey Lee " he looks at and I say " is it gonna snow monday or what ? my buddy is a weather geek ( sorry Jay I mean that in a good way ) and he says snow monday and posiible ice storm wednesday " Lee says,,,,he is watching monday and he thinks it stays south,,,and Wednseday could be icy he is worried about it ps he hit the 2 field goals I saw him attempt :grin:
lol....great stuff CBG...very funny. The Monday storm I have not discussed much only to reference it to maybe setting the pattern for the following storms. I really do not see it dumping anymore than a few inches up here..and little if anything Lower Hudson Valley on north. Now south Jersey might get a bit more. BUT MUCH MORE IMPORTANTLY, the EURO just came and guess what..it trended more south and colder with Wednesday storm which means the Lower Hudson Valley gets a very good snow storm for the most part. The EURO model is a very conservative model with precip totals. Still, it has over 8 inches of snow for Lower Hudson Valley and only icing the last 3 or 4 hours. Again, this has been the trend this entire winter. From Maryland to south of Albany and east, this area is the magnet for storms. Storms look to be too warm or miss us south and then trend to bulls-eye as we get closer. While one storm may not hit the Hudson Valley as hard, it hits North Jersey hard..but the bottom line is 5 days ago, a major snowstorm was modeled for our area. As time passed, the models backed off and went warm because of the reasons I gave in that long post...primary into the Great Lakes and little if any transfer. In the past 12 hours models have gone back to the big snow storm..one run at a time..but thats the trend..and again, remember when I said remind me if I get off course with the trends? Well, we didnt..and mentioned all along that this might be the case. If you go by tonights Euro run and GFS run, Areas north of I80 to the NJ/NY border..including the Poconos too get a good snow event followed by icing..not much rain at all. Areas north of that border get mostly snow..and probably over a foot. This latest trend even put CMAN back in the winter storm chances as he now sits with snow first and then long icing. A few more trends and we are back where we were more than a week ago when the models showed an all out snowstorm for almost everyone. Again, Sunday night...does the trend continue or does it revert slowly back to what it had just 24 hours ago? Im going to check real quick on the the next weekend storm to see if that trended back to major snowstorm.
Amazing...now what changed so much. This is a storm 8 days away..so again, please do not think Im over hyping this. Earlier yesterday, after 5 days of this model showing a huge snowstorm next weekend, the models for 48 hours showed a snow to rain event..no big storm off the coast. Then tonights GFS said wait a minute...storm back on..and then the EURO shows this: That L off the coast of Virgina is a very low deep low pressure...or in laymen terms, a major snowstorm. So, all it means is that we are back on to track a CHANCE of 2 big snow storms this week. Very impressive picture, I must say.
Ok...overtime today and tonight..lol. Will be on a bit tomorrow and then a lot later tomorrow night after midnight but here is the wrap up for the week. 1. Superbowl Sunday: Mild day with on and off showers..cold front comes through around game time so temps should slowly drop into the 30s during the game and maybe a few showers. 2. Monday storm: Models have trended north with this storm but nothing huge up here. Right now it looks like perhaps 4 inches down south..and maybe a few inches up north. Nothing much...lower Hudson Valley may not get anything at all. 3. Tuesday night Wednesday storm: After models showed a huge snowstorm more than a week ago, a few days ago they backed off to first snow to rain...then..snow to ice to rain...then...snow to ice and a major ice storm north of i80...and now...all out snow storm lower Hudson valley and perhaps even north jersey Poconos with a possible Ice storm west of i95. 4 Saturday/Sunday storm next weekend: After the models showed CMANS Snowmageddon for a almost a week, they backed off 3 days ago and showed the same change as Tuesday/Wednesday storm...snow to ice to maybe rain. NOW today the models have gone back to a potentially heavy heavy snowstorm for the entire midatlantic and northeast...even the coast. 5. The following Tuesday and Wednesday potential for a big snow storm around the 12th. 6. 2 weeks from today around the 15th, another potential for a big snow storm. Now thats a lot to follow and lets see how good the models do for all of these storms.
someone get jay a cup of coffee! good write up jay, thisis going to be very interesting leading in to tuesday. keep up the good work. we all are sitting on the edge of our seats
Hey Jay no pressure ,,,lol,,,,but this winter I started passing along your info on my Facebook page ,,,whenever you said heads up,,,,,i gave em a heads up,,,,needless to say you have a bunch of people that " Like ". What I pass along,,,,then there are the " haters " ,,,some of the posts are like these , quite funny,,,,,ok back to the updates , keep em coming
lol...cbg...facebook haters? Im good bud..dont worry...Im good. Just checked the models and Mondays storm did indeed come north..perhaps 2 to 4 for NYC. Surprises me. Central South Jersey..let me post a map..I think CMAN gets into it too. Cant..but even cman could get 3 to 6 at least with this. Something else to check out.
so TWC just went all in with 100% precip on wenesday. right now calling wintry mix. still showing 40% chance snow on monday. that number going up jay?
Finally got to use Big A on the last storm and he performed magnificently. Had the driveway and all sidewalks done inside 20mins. I'm ready!
I dont think so FJF..regardless if it does...I cant see anything over a dusting making its way that far north..but then again, this had also trended north. Will check tonight bud.
CBG..just curious..could care less about the haters..but do you post images that I post on here? Have you ever posted images? Pics? Its ok if you do, just curious.
