This storm sucked. However,it could have been much worse. It ended up that the freezing rain had a lot of sleet mixed it,which cut down on the weight on trees and lines. So no powerloss. But the ice on the roads....what a mess. And no salt here. So 2 days later the roads are still very dangerous. I went out for a bit today finally,and its amazing how people not used to winter have no idea to cut down on the speed and stop tailgating. Just because there isn't 6 inches of frozen shit on the ground doesn't mean its not treacherous. Finally warms up tomorrow so I can catch up on work. A prediction. The tropical season will be one to remember for the east coast. Just going by what usually happens after one quiet season,and the trend after a very rough winter that ends early.
Hiker!! great timing for you my man. Great timing. Now wait a minute..Im sure you are not going by boat but by plane? Hmm...keep an eye on the flights. What time are you outta there on the 7th?
OK...VERY IMPORTANT...THIS IS FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK. AGAIN..THE ENTIRE WEEK. This shot from the EURO is the combined storms on the 5th and 8th. Now these are some HUGE numbers and I dont think we get there..but if you get both storms snow, you could be looking at numbers like this: The light blues inside the pinks are over 24 inches. Now there are things about this map that do not make sense unless you dig deep. For instance, since this is for the entire week and areas in central Jersey on south get frozen to rain with the first storm, how do they get such high snow numbers? Reason to believe its the south storm. So if the areas up north get such high numbers with the first storm, how do they get same numbers as the the south? Perhaps the south gets more snow the second storm which makes things all equal? Again, eye candy I would call this...BUT....have not seen a model with a weekly snow total like this in many a moon. So we have to breakdown each model to see what it shows for snow first storm...second storm. Thats our job the next 2 or 3 days.
I think thats the answer. Lets take my area in north jersey. I think right now, because of the chance of mixing issues that would hold down snow totals greatly, I get perhaps 3 inches of snow the first storm..and then 10 or more the second storm. Where FJF in Lower Hudson Valley gets a total of around 16..but maybe gets 8 plus 8. Right now the Euro has the second storm hitting higher amounts to the south and the first storm having less mixing issues up north giving them higher amounts there. On a forum I go to they are destroying this map saying I wish!! in your dreams!! Again, thats nonsense because there is no doubt we have 2 great precip makers coming..and someone in both zones getting between 20 to 25 inches is VERY likely. Not at all sure where that sets up yet. But many between the 2 storms will get over a foot...even if you turn to rain with the first storm.
hey HIKER...you have another threat for Monday too bud. What town or city are you from again? I need to do a better job down south for you.
The WU forecast is for rain all week, snow and freezing rain Friday night. We'll be heading somewhere down 95 after work Friday, spend the night somewhere around the GA border and drive most of the rest on Saturday. So I should miss most of the mess. Hope to be in Marathon at the resort sometime around lunch on Sunday. And I live in Lancaster, SC. So there ya go, Jay.
oh..ok Hiker..got ya. You are covered. Will be checking out model runs at 1030 and 1am if I can make it up.
ha..lol.. cbg..not much to add tonight...so heres what we have. The storm for Monday will hit mostly to the south of us. The storm on Wednesday RIGHT NOW seems to be a miller b setup that has the primary storm that cuts near the Great Lakes the winner..which means right now..some locations will get a really bad ice storm. Not liking this setup for the Hudson Valley with the ice. Looks to be a front end thump of snow..then a changeover to ice where it will come down heavy with sleet and freezing rain. That line right now looks to cut through very NW Jersey...Poconos...through the Hudson Valley...into Western Conn...central and Western Mass and so on. Before the changeover, some might get 3...some might get 6 to 8. This will be problematic where that ice zone sets up but where it does will not be a narrow strip but a broad 50 mile wide area that runs through 4 states. Then all eyes turn to next weekend with a storm that will be snow for most...and looks to be a large storm. Both storms are loaded with precip. This storm is much more favorable for overall snows. Then the following Tuesday..the 11th, another storm is modeled and then the following Friday..the 14th...another very large storm is modeled. Again, playing the percentages, no matter where you are located, one of these will go boom in a big way snow wise...and one will be a very dangerous ice storm. I think the models will start to narrow things down for the rest of the week on Sunday night when the first player enters California and we are able to get more reliable information for the models to digest. So until then you will see back and forth and come Sunday night, we can pretty much get a good idea if we are talking snowstorms like we have had this year already...or something bigger.
EURO model just brought the storm on Monday further north..was it just a run? Not sure..but it brings 3 to 6 up here and then makes the strom for Wednesday a snow/sleet/freezing rain/rain nightmare....we will see later runs.
There's like 2 inches of snow in Atlanta and people are flipping their fuckin cars and the city is in turmoil. 2 inches. All you have to do is slow down a little bit..... I don't have winter tires and have never flipped my vehicle driving in way worse conditions. You can still see the goddam roads and its pandemonium. No offense to anyone in the south, but seeing this shit on the news was borderline comical. SLOW DOWN.
Jake, it just blows me away. The politicians down there can talk to they are blue in the face and I would just aske one question. Besides sprinkling it on a good steak, do you guys understand the different uses for SALT. SALT. SALT. Temps down there were in the lower 20s..not 0...lower 20s. Salt laughs at lower 20s. The bottom line is these areas do not have the equipment to handle highways with just SALT. Doesnt seem to be a huge conversion for trucks to have salt on them. Spreaders I would assume are known to the south. HIKER mentioned that Brine was put down BEFORE the storm. For us up north, we know that when the snow starts to fly, the brine gets piled up with snow within minutes. Half inch an hour snows or higher will accumulate on top of brine. Sleet laughs at brine. I will never understand it. Just tell the truth and say we do not have the salt trucks to handle all the highways. Period. Then agaiin, Im sure people in the midwest laugh at us when we close schools with 6 inches on the ground..and people in Alaska laugh at the midwest when they close down schools because of wind chills below zeor....horrible circle of life. Ok...having a real problelm with the storm on Wednesday and our snow and ice lovers in this forum may not be happy with what Im rooting for but im really hopiing this storm trends west..bringing us even warmer temps. The all out snow storm for lower hudson valley..north jersey....NYC...Jonnnys Newtown and CMAN down south would need a miracle trend south....slight chance...but if this storm just trends slightly east..where I think it will trend..the lower hudson valley and ares of NW NU...Poconos...Western Conn...Western Mass...NY state etc will be in for quite the ice storm. This is a horrible pattern of cold air that will be very VERY slow to move out and a ton of precip from the Gulf of Mexico to Maine. I do not like this setup. You should actually be rooting for snow..which many will start out as...turning to sleet and freezing rain..and quickly to rain. Some will have that setup but at some point the cold air will not budge out. Those areas will be in for a ice nightmare. So...Monday believe it or not is still on the table for 2 to 7 inches...higher down south...lower up north jersey. Right now, not even the Lower Hudson is getting more than flurries...but this storm keeps jumping north. Then the above Tuesday night/ Wednesday storm. Then the forementioned next weekend storm. All the storms will be guided by what the Monday storm does in my opinion. So again..not until Sunday night will we have a good idea of whats coming. After the next weekend storm there are two more to follow...a storm every 2 to 3 days.
I would say not slim FJF..I thnk many will get front end snow. The question is who ends up with snow and that might be limited to the very north. You area is in the line for some very bad icing FJF..very bad. To make matters worst, the second storm that weekend has trended to ice also for us down her..but still all snow by you.
ahhh...the beauty of mother nature...that spinning thing off the coast of Northern California/Washington/Oregon is our Wednesday storm:
