Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

you got that much GD!!...WOW. We received a half inch up here. Where are you again? I know very close to the beach right?

 

and looking even further out..like we talked about a few days back we have a train of storms coming through until around the 16th of February and guess what? Maybe winter is over after that?

Lol..probably not..but it looks like a nice warmup after this run..like at least a week of nice warm weather.

But first..snow storms galore.

 

I mentioned earlier that this storm...unlike most storms this year had a few obstacles. One of the obstacles is that the models are in fantasy land...they are not. This storm will be juiced.

Another obstacle..especially those within 2o to 30 miles of i95 would be temps..and that is now officially a problem. There will be a rain snow line...and there will be a pretty significant ICE zone.

This storm will have cold air to play with..but that could spell trouble for many. This has ice storm written all over it..it also has rain written all over it for those south of that line. A line many might prefer but right now..its all about where does the ice zone set up..where does the heavy snow setup..and where does the rain setup.

Those in the snow zone get over a foot. Right now its lower hudson valley north. Areas along NYC and west to the lower hudson valley will be in the transition zone..and the ice will be very bad.

Again, this has dangerous storm in all forms written all over it. Now because of the strong high pressure to the north, it allows storms to reform more south..and locks in cold air that other storms wiould just nicely transition over to rain. I excpect the rain/snow line to trend further south. In this case that would thin out the dangerous Ice zone. Again, Sunday will be the day we get a much better grip on it but before that we follow the trends.

The Feb 8th storm is very much on radar also. We, as it stands now, have 2 very large storms to track.

 

It could be for some GG. I think NYC area MIGHT be ok because NYC has real trouble holding the cold air. Areas just west...bottom line is right now the big models show a storm that might actually go a bit west, not the perfect track for snow. Problem is the high pressure to the north really locks in the cold air.

Usually, these are the storms where it snows for 3 hours...sleet for an hour...freezing rain an hour...then rain. When the cold air refuses to budge..or moves very slowly out, you get icing.

Again, a more favorable snow track would squelch that because the line would setup in normal fashion..along jersey coast..MD/DE more coastal areas.

This has the potential for bad icing. Again, still 5 days away so we have time to iron that out.

Now, the day before, Monday, a smaller disturbance that was supposed to stay south is coming a bit north..so Monday there is a chance for a few inches of snow.

Then after this storm...between the 8th and 10th..is the best setup for a true noreaster all year. Im not going to get too into that now but if this storm is still on the radar next Sunday or Monday..its well...its the perfect setup and has been the perfect setup for 4 straight days now on all the models.

That would be next weekend.

 

Now just to show we are not snow leaning all the time..lol..around the middle of February the models have been showing a real warmup..not a couple day warm up.

I think at some point...this has to happen. If you remember we talked about how cold air has to build in Canada on north before it plunges south. This remarkable stretch of cold air at some point..well at some point the well up north has to reboot and will run dry. At some point this has to break and usually doesnt run the entire winter. Other than a few days in January, I mean..this is stupid cold.

Also, the next weekend storm is on the radar for areas way down south also. HIKER and our freinds to the south may get round 2 with this storm.

 

Just looked at the latest GFS model for next weekend. Im hesitant to get into it because I do not want anyone to think we are just passing the buck for the Wednesday storm because it might not be a huge snowstorm..because for some..it will.

The reason I keep bringing up next weekends storm is because its the biggest storm I have seen modeled as closely to the blizzard of 96 as I have ever seen. The track..the temps..the wind...the percip amounts..the speed. When you start talking about big snows for the south..and big snows for the north..thats when you start looking at that "special" storm.

Again, things could get ugly with the models but this setup. The big question for me is what does the first storm do the dynamics of the second storm. Where will the models be a week from today...or yesterday.

So again, not downplaying the first storm..but CMAN brought up the dynamics of a huge storm and how they happen..and the next weekend storm? It just makes a ton of sense in how its modeled.

2 storms....first one will have a big snow zone of over a foot..a pretty large scale ice zone..and then a rain zone to the south where 20 to 30 miles west of I95 seem to be where the zones all right it out.

A second storm that is too far out to believe..but well...it would be an amazing storm.

 

One last point...STAFF brought up his anger with models and how they lose storms and I totally get it. I think a few people might stroll in here and say ok..the models say this now but we will all push the blame off to the models when a storm doesnt become as huge as it was discussed. Its the MAIN reason why I have always been hesitant to start a blog. I have seen these guys get crucified when a storm several days before its supposed to happen...busts.

I think the main reason they gt crucified is because they beat their chests and give you the I TOLD YOU FIRST!! I got it right!! Instead of just giving credit to the fact that they worked hard..studied the models day and night..and then did the right thing and gave the models the credit...and the main reason I will eventually start one because i think..i hope i go out of my way not to pretend to know better than anyone else and give credit where credit is due.

The only thing a person that follows the weather and looks long term can take credit for is that every week pretty much..the models put out a huge storm. 70% of them do not have the backing of what they are portraying. So you do not go with everyone you see.

The reason for this long nonsense post is that Im always hesitant to speak highly of what the MODELS are showing long term..unles they make sense..and this storm next weekend makes a ton of sense.

Its a storm that I think the media will even start talking about in the next 2 or 3 days even though its a week a way. There is that much agreement.

 

lol...you might be in the ice storm area for next Wednesday Brook..but you will get snow buddy..and you will get 2 storms in 3 days it seems!

 

Yeah FJF..in fact the EURO posted a map that showed over 24 inches of snow for the lower hudson valley to Albany and then east to central Mass and Western Conn.

The only thing that could go wrong BESIDES how far out we are with the second storm is that first storm.if that ice line moves further north.

 

Ok..first storm first. Here is the NWS for next week. Again...60% chance of something almost 5 to 6 days out? Very unusual. Now for their predictions, you can see how its all over the place.

Tuesday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Wednesday Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Wednesday Night A chance of rain, snow, and sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

 

Actually Jonny..the first storm is a big ? for Newtown..very close to rain/snow.

The second storm would be next weekend.

Just saw temps for the Superbowl perhaps upper 40s..lol. Maybe showers during the day and then temps fall during the game.

 

and the models..well the Euro is saying stay tuned for Monday...THIS monday...this could get a bit more interesting..not a foot plus..but the 4 to 6 line is now in central jersey. Does it trend farther north and get stronger?