It doesn't look like AFC/NFC cross match ups are scheduled for the first game although this would be a unique scenario. SEA/CAR, SEA/GB, SEA/SF are all potential games. DEN/NE, DEN/CIN, DEN/IND are all potential games. 2012-2013 BAL won, played DEN in 2013 2011-2012 NYG won, played DAL in 2012 2010-2011 GB won, played NO in 2011 2009-2010 NO won, played MIN in 2010 2008-2009 PIT won, played TEN in 2009 2007-2008 NYG won, played WAS in 2008
Extremely unique, I think it would be a no brainer, the game itself wouldn't be able to get any hotter than opening day. But let's see what happens Sunday first.
My guess if Denver wins, the opener will be Broncos vs Niners. If Seahawks win, it'll be Seahawks vs either Broncos or Green Bay. Not going to make the champ go to an away game
Andrew Luck probably has more upside potential, but of the top four qb's from 2012's rookie class, Wilson has accomplished the most so far, to be sure, and has looked the most consistent. But he has also for some reason not looked quite so sharp lately. He's still got command of their O, but his passes are not as crisp. Perhaps he is feeling the pressure. Could be a big factor in the SB. I know Manning did not like the cold earlier in his career. I remember that playoff game in NE where it was snowing at game time, and the Colts never were in that game. But I don't think that bad weather favors Seattle, either. I think Denver wins it, but I say so with not much confidence.
Peyton manning postseason games 35 degrees and under: 2002 at NYJ: 41-0 L, 14-31, 137 yds, 0 TDs, 2 INTs 2003 at NE: 24-14 L, 23-47, 237 yds, 1 TD, 4 INTs 2004 at NE: 20-3 L, 27-42, 238 yds, 0 TDs, 1 INT 2012 vs. Bal: 38-35 loss(2OT), 28-43, 290 yds, 3 TDs, 2 INTs totals: 92-163, 902 yds, 4 TDs, 9 INTs, 57.3 rating, led Os to 9.5 PPG
Can you directly correlate that to the weather, or perhaps the fact that 3 of the 4 teams he played turned out to be the best team in the league that season. And the jets were a team on a roll. It is too simplistic to correlate it entirely to the weather and ignore the team that he played.
It's tough. Overall in his career, according to Yahoo, there is a slight but not huge drop off in Peyton's play with weather. Yahoo says in "cold weather" he has a 92.6 passer rating versus his overall career average of 97.2 But if we had to guess, the majority if not all his cold weather games are on the road. His road passer rating is 94.4. It's also inexact because I believe it only takes into place temperature at kickoff. What happens if it gets warmer or colder during the game? The funny part, Yahoo has Peyton with better passer rating in 21-40 degree weather than in 41-60 weather so I'm not really sure if any of it makes sense. It might not be enough sample size to draw an actual conclusion.
Let's look at what his opposing D's did the following games: 2002 Jets: shut Indy, allowed 30 pts at oak the next week. 2003 NE: held Indy to 14 pts, allowed 29 pts to Car the next game 2004 NE: held Indy to 3 pts, allowed 27 pts the next week to Pitt 2012 Bal: held Denver's O to 21 pts, allowed 29 to SF next game Indy/Den total: 38, 9.5 PPG opps allowed the next week: 115, 28.8 PPG
does it matter what he did in Cleveland for a meaningless game in the cold or does it matter in the biggest games what he has done?
Thats the way I view it, Luck does have more upside but if Wilson can win this game he will take a HUGE step forward. Wilson would be leading the race early on, a Super Bowl in the sophmore year is a huge accomplishment regardless of who is playing around him. Wilson will be able to play out the remainder of his career with little to no pressure. He is on the same track that Roethlisberger was on pretty much.
it matters if we are saying the weather is the factor. though I think you are saying that it is more the big game that Peyton has trouble with, not necessarily the weather, even if the weather doesn't help.
it could be coincidence? he has struggled indoors, outdoors or wherever mostly throughout his postseason career but he has been great this postseason so maybe it won't matter? but I think it's a troubling sign.
Well considering I'm not comparing a game in Cleveland to the "Biggest games" he played, your question is pointless. I would rather look at all the pass attempts PM has made in different weather situations than pick and choose random games. I mean you are pulling games from 2003 and 2004 and say they are "biggest games". Are you claiming games from 10 years ago are more relevant to how PM will play in weather than games that happened in the regular season or playoffs this year? That's why it's better to take all his pass attempts in such weather, because it spans his whole career, long time ago and recently, and spans all his attempts. The worst weather related passer rating PM has is in rain/wind. He helped his team won a SB in wind/rain in the "biggest game". Does that mean if it's raining/windy this SB the Broncos and PM will have an advantage since the previous PM team won in the biggest game in those conditions, not to me. I think it for weather terms, worst case to best case for PM and Broncos precipitation, bitter cold, cold, mild to warm. Add heavy winds to each category to make it worse for the Broncos. Even though Yahoo has his passer rating in frigid>21-40 degrees>41-60 degrees, there are very few pass attempts in the frigid weather so I'll still say frigid is worse than normal cold for his arm and keeping it warm and active at his age
If the Seahawks get precipitation, I think they become favorites. While they still rely on their pass offense, they don't rely on it as their main attack. It compliments their run game very well and their defense has rarely put them in hole where they need to abandon the run. The most pass attempts they've had Wilson throw in a game this year is 33, the first game of the season. Against NO, they needed him to throw 18 times and 25 times against SF. They are confident in their ability to keep a game close so even if they get down 7-10 points, they hardly ever panic either. Any type of wind/precipitation that makes it harder for the Broncos to pass will make it easier for the Seahawks to stop them and keep the game close even if the Broncos break a big play here or there. I still haven't read anywhere if Sherman is going to follow Demaryius Thomas around the field. I really hope he does, will be a great matchup to watch throughout the game. I think if the Broncos offense notices Sherman sticking to one side, they'll notice it quick and exploit it. I'm also interested to see how Julius Thomas does. His size is no longer as big as a factor as it usually and the Seahawks are going to try to hit him (and everyone) as much as they can. My biggest fear is that the refs start deciding the game calling touch pick plays and touch PI calls. The Seahawks hold receivers, the Broncos use picks to free their wide receivers. Let those two strategies play out except for blatant breaking of the rules.
the most recent example was his failure in the 2012 postseason, is that recent enough for you? he did very little in that SB, his D dominated including scoring a TD, his top 2 RBs averaged 4.8 YPC on almost 200 yds. he got the MVP b/c they tend to give it to QBs even though he didn't deserve it.
More so than ever, the winner of this Super Bowl is in a superb position to repeat. Usually I am one to argue that the winner cant repeat and ive been right for the last decade but I will admit whoever wins this championship will have a great opportunity in 2014 because both are in great financial situations, both have many injured players returning, both dont have many people to pay either.
I agree but I usually would give a team like a 5% chance to repeat but I think ill give the winner about a 15% chance. I dont think it will happen either but I think they have a better chance than any team of the last decade
you have been as right as predicting it will rain...eventually. there are very few repeat Super Bowl winners in history. 8 out of 50. sorry, it doesn't make you right when you claim it, it means you can see the obvious.
Technically I have more credibility than most people on this Super Bowl, I was like one of three people on this board to predict Seahawks-Broncos and im the only one that actually picked the Seahawks. (Dark Knight predicted the Broncos to win) Everyone likes to bring up the few times im wrong, but no one ever brings up the many times ive been right.
