Year in retrospect: How did the Revis trade work out?

I love how the FO Homers here insist they know the Jets would have still taken Milliner if Revis was still on the roster. That makes no sense at all. You have Cro, Kyle Wilson and Revis, and you use your sole first round pick on Milliner???

All this "They had him higher on the boards!" nonsense ignores there was no need to draft a cb, and that Milliner as it was had a history of injury that is still problematic in assessing his value.

So it is logical the next person in line was Richardson, and that is most likely who they would have picked if Revis was still on the roster.

I know this offends the FO Homers and the Revis Haters, but it is what it is.

Let's put it this way - are the Jets a better team with Milliner than Revis? Depends, doesn't it? It depends as I said before on what Milliner ends up doing, and also whether that money left over is better spent elsewhere. Neither of which we know now.

But that doesn't stop the Revis Haters and FO Homers from saying such things as "At least we got that asshole off the team!"

And of course the Richardson nonsense - "If we had not traden Revis, there's NO WAY we would have gotten Richardson!"

Nonsense. Just self serving nonsense. The homers here just love that stuff, though.

 

If the Jets keep Revis that means they extended him to a big money deal. Given his history of wanting money up front that means the Jets likely have almost no cap room this year and they probably let Cro go instead of reworking his deal.

Then they take Milliner because he's obviously above Richardson on their list and they want to play him opposite Revis.

There's just no valid reason to think the Jets were going to be able to keep both Revis and Cro after extending Revis. They'd have needed the cheap CB opposite Revis to make things work.

They re-worked Cro anyway to get some cap space for the year.

There's also the cash out of pocket factor. Revis deal would have required a big chunk of cash for the year. Cro's rework gave him a big chunk of cash on the year. The Jets weren't going to do both of those things.

 

Can you quote a source saying that the Jets had Milliner clearly higher than Richardson?

And you and i have argued this business about too much money at cb before. I don't buy that, either. There is no rule that requires a team to underpay at an opposite position, such as LG vs. RG, because the other is paid much more.

A word about BPA - Ftr I don't think any team goes purely by BPA. First of all where someone ranks on the draft board is not pure science, and devoid of speculation. That being the case, need can override a board based partly on speculation. A team in need KNOWS it has a need, while BPA is partly guesswork.

And let's addd another factor that should have been obvious to this discussion. At this point it is clear that Richardson was the better pick than Milliner. Yes that could change if somehow Richardson turns to crap, or Milliner vastly improves. Or really both.

But assuming we can say Richardson was the better pick, what does the Jets being WRONG to think Milliner was the better prospect have to do with Revis?

Nothing. Absolutely nothing.

 

The best source for how Milliner ranked compared to Richardson is that the Jets took Milliner before Richardson.

If you really want to argue that they reached for Milliner with Richardson higher on their charts and a handful of 1st round CB's still available on the 13 I don't know what to say to you about that.

CB's went on the 9, 12, 22 and 25. It's unlikely that the Jets promoted Milliner over Richardson when they had several other good options if Milliner was gone on the 13.

 

Agreed. I feel that the only way we do not draft Richardson is if Tavon Austin was available. Drafting Milliner makes zero sense with Revis still on the roster. I know people always claim that Idzik is a BPA guy, but his BPA is out of the chart that he and the scouting dept made up based on needs. CB was not a need until Revis was traded.

 

It's quite simple. Rex tells Woody he'll only agree to the Revis trade if he can use one of the firsts on a CB. Since Milliner was originally projected top 5, he was impossible to resist at #9 after losing Revis. If Revis stays, we draft a CB in the 2nd-4th rounds (if Cro leaves). It's never just BPA or just need. It's ALWAYS a mix of the 2. The draft board is formed based on need and future needs. From there BPA takes over. If they didn't take Milliner at 9 he'd probably would have been gone by 13, whereas Richardson could last to 13. This could also be part of the reasoning. They might not have gone CB at #9 if Milliner wasn't there. Of course it's impossible to say.

 

I think the point is that, no one actually knows what went on in the Jets draft room that day. Nobody has a clue who would have been picked had Revis been re-signed. It seems silly to argue about something that no one can prove.

 

welcome to the offseason

 

Nonsense. The Jets had to replace Revis, and Milliner was there, so they took him first. You do not know what they would have done if Revis was still on the team.

And of course you ignored the part about how the Jets were WRONG to rank Milliner higher. In fact it could be argued they took Miliner because they were afraid too many other teams needed cb's so they did not want the one they had highest go before they could later get Richardson.

You simply have not isolated the variable since by draft day Revis was already gone.

 

Absolutely agree. The point of those who are supporting the Revis trade is they say that trade is what brought Richardson to the Jets. That is not a fact. They don't know that at all.

What we do know is that if the Jets really thought Milliner was better than Richardson as a prospect, they were WRONG. That is a fact. And their being wrong had nothing to do with Revis.

 

you dont know that. who knows what the jets would have done had they only had 1 first instead of 2.

 

this 1000000%

 

The one thing people seem to be missing is that this isnt about Revis vs Richardson. This is about Revis vs Richardson + Milliner + $14 million to spend elsewhere + installation of youth

I can already make an argument that Sheldon ALONE had as big of an impact as Revis would have had. Now the Jets are able to install quality talent over multiple roster spots than have Revis take up one roster spot and leave the others roster spots filled with players of lower quality due to the lack of money to spend because of Revis's contract.

 

What the hell is wrong with all you guys? The only thing more futile and ridiculous than predicting this year's draft is going back and trying to rewrite last year's.

Take the dog for a walk; it will be more productive.

 

Why do QB's throw to Sherman? When Sherman gets treatment like Revis did by not throwing to his side of the field,then Sherman should talk. Sherman has a way better secondary then Revis ever had. Saying that . I hope Revis/Jets reunite when he is a free agent again. Was a huge fan favorite.

 

of course it worked out... having a top notch passing defense never won us or any other NFL team any rings. i look at alot of the recent superbowl championship teams and MOST of them didnt have elite cornerbacks. Then we put the guy on the athletes forbes list for a year or 2... then he not only wants to be the top paid corner but the top paid defensive player.. FROM CRUTCHES! anyway sheldon is a BEAST and already one of my favorite jets he got a richard sherman type swagger with him. still got a 3rd rounder to get out of the deal. this a no brainer..

ps. i do miss having revis though.. he changed the way i look at ALOT of WR's after he matched up with him.. still not worth 96 mill.

 

First of all, it's one year into each of their careers, so it's a little hard to say they were flat wrong. Sheldon regresses next year, Milliner picks up where he left off, you never know.

I hate judging the value of a trade purely on who was drafted using the pick. There's more variables than that. When the Jets traded their best pass rusher since the sack exchange for a late 1st, it wasn't a fantastic deal on paper, at least until they drafted the best center in the NFL. If they drafted Vernon Gholston with that pick, it doesn't change the trade at all, but it changes the perception of it.

If we look at "$16M Revis for cheaper Richardson and a 3rd" in a vacuum, of course it looks like a good deal. But it's not quite that simple.

Plus, there's the cap room acquired in this trade. If that cap room allows us to sign a good free agent on top of the 2 young players, then that adds to the value of the trade.

BB, I think you're being too harsh when it comes to this deal. To me, it's pretty clear the Jets preferred Milliner over Richardson; if they didn't, they would have drafted Richardson first. There's a chance they went out of order on their draft boards, but without that evidence, I think that's a pretty fair assertion. Would they have drafted Milliner over Sheldon with just 1 first rounder? Who knows...

I don't understand people who are "just happy Revis is gone." He was the most dominant Jets player of my lifetime. I wish he was still here. But he's out to play for the highest bidder. I can't blame him, but to give him cap-crippling money off an ACL injury was a major risk and a huge deterrent to building a great roster.

This offseason will go a long way in proving whether or not that trade was successful.

 

Mack,

Actually I think I agree with what you are saying more than not. Especially the who knows what the Jets would have done with Revis still on the roster and only one first round pick. (Of course I have my opinion about what they should have done, and likely would have done if they were smart, but I never claiemd to have absolute knowledge in that regard. I was merely arguing against the notion that Richardson would not have come to the Jets if Revis was not traded first.)

Having said that, I have previously addressed the relative values of Milliner and Richardson, and acknowledge that the current perception of them might change going forward. Yes, it's only been one year, and I was encouraged by Miliner's improved play as the season went on. Still, as it stands right now, 99 out of a hundred fans would say Richardson was the better pick. Add in that if Revis was still on the team, there would have been no need to replace him.

People can talk about BPA all they want, but imo need is always a factor in drafting. It should be. Add in the marketing efforts of a team, especially Woody Johnson's Jets, and they knew they had to make a big move to replace Revis. Do I KNOW this was a major factor in picking Milliner with their first pick? No. But it sure looks that way, and in any event as I said Richardson, so far, looks like he was the BPA, not Miliner. Why is this relevant? Because as it stands now Richardson should have been the first pick if BPA was the primary metric.

I also agree that who was drafted is a poor measure of the value of a trade of a player for picks. But it is not a totally unfair measure, imo, and here's why. Trading an existing player is very much more the devil you do know, while a draft pick for a college player, no matter how much scouting was involved, is much more the devil you don't know. So if a valued player is traded for a draft pick and the FO turns around and uses it poorly, that does tell you something. It tells you that the variable of the difference between potential and realized value in the draft pick in this case worked against the team. It happens, and should always be remembered any time a valued player is traded for a pick.

As for your remaining points, I also do not agree with those here who hate Revis in personal terms. He was the best player on the Jets at least since Curtis Martin, and arguably going all the way back to Joe Willie. Those here like a poster who will remain nameless but whose handle begins with a Z act like jock holders for Woody Johnson, who did not even try to cut a deal with Revis. THAT I hold against Woody, and so the deal TB reached with Revis is not what the Jets necessarily had to agree to. My pointing this out and having appreciated Revis's contribution to the Jets makes me a jock holder for him????

I don't think so, but if FO Homers want to say that, I will survive their insults.

As for the cap space freed up, I have acknowledged it but also pointed out it also has to be wisely used. It is not always when we talk about the Jets, such as the contract extension for Sanchez. Whether it will be going forward? We shall have to wait and see.