Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Discussion in 'BS Forum' started by jaywayne12, Dec 25, 2010.

  1. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    man...take a day off...my head is spinning lol..

    HIKER..very good shot for a snow event down south for Thursday...will be on tonight to take a look but that is the storm that RIGHT NOW will miss us south..the one I liked coming north. No model has it coming north right now..but I wouldnt go that way until tomorrow night.

    I just hit the 7 day GFS real quick and again...a bit of an icy night Saturday but then temps go into the 50s! Superbowl Sunday. They had those temps last week for Superbowl and then went back to 20s..now 50s again.

    Will be on later tonight..after midnight but a real quick look at NWS and other than light snow Tuesday nigth and Thursday night the real story is the temps...I cant remember a perioid like this in a very long time..all week. Temps below zero a few nights.

    See ya later.
     
  2. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    Back from the airport,,the surprise party and now off to pick the kids up from this other late nite party,,,,maybe Jay is at one of these late nite festivities ?,,,,,,,,,out to warm up the car and off I go,,on behalf of the snow lovers let me say here and now that I hope the latest model runs have begun to tilt next weeks " possible " event in our favor and not Woody n company,,,,just sayin
     
  3. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Hey guys...was stuck in Clifton NJ all day today. Amazing how they got a dusting..and just 7 miles west here we got almost 3 inches with this front. A front that moved through kicked off a little storm off the coast and it held on for a bit.

    Bad news CBG...bad news right now. Cant completely write it off but no model is coming back far north with our storm this week. HIKER and the people down south are in for quite a shock. Areas that rarely see snow along the Georgia/SC/NC/VA border..some areas just inland may get 8 to as much as 12 inches of snow!

    Its an unusual setup but the cold high pressure in place wins the battle this time...AS OF RIGHT NOW.

    Of course we will keep an eye out..and changes could come.

    Week in a nutshell right now shows a clipper come through Tuesday that may give us what we go today..couple inches..and then perhaps that might be it until Saturday..when a storm comes up and could start as snow and then change to freezing rain and perhaps rain by early Sunday morning before ending well before the game.

    Now the temps are a bit of a battle between where the cold front stalls out against warmer air to the south. Right now a 50 50 split on the models whether the temps will be in the 30s or upper 40s low 50s for the game.

    Will check back in tomorrow night but not totally writing off the storm for Thursday until Monday night..when most players are on land..but right now, unlikely.
     
  4. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    To quote my buddy Charlie Brown,,,,," ugh "
     
  5. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    I hear you CBG..but a bit of good news in the future.

    Have to admit with all of this very very cold air, we have had some decent snows. Usually, the cold air forces storms south. After the Superbowl, we will get into a bit of a more normal temp pattern...while the jet stream starts to offer a very active pattern.

    Now the storm problems will not be whether this one or that one gets hit..but who gets rain who gets snow..more on pattern.

    Superbowl storm that was supposed to hit night before has been pushed back..for the Superbowl. It might just be real uncomfortable with drizzle etc.

    After that, rain or snow? every 4 days or so for a few weeks with some big ones possible.
     
  6. GordonGecko

    GordonGecko Well-Known Member

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    yuck

    [​IMG]
     
    #5026 GordonGecko, Jan 26, 2014
    Last edited: Jan 26, 2014
  7. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    Jay,,,,I know the last few storms showed back up a couple of days before,,,,I would think Thursday could still come our way with 4 days to go or with the cold air pushing down south do you give it no shot for us with the latest info ?
    Ps drizzle or rain next Sunday would really suck,,,I would rather sit there while snowing then raining ,,,,just sayin
     
  8. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    The Superbowl forecast is going to go back and forth until around Wednesday because of a stalled front. North/warm...South/Cold. Today its back south so we are looking at temps in the low 30s with snow showers.

    Now, let me tell you something...yeah CBG it has trended back north but with the Tuesday/Wednesday disturbance..now its tough to say how far north it trends but it would have to trend really far north..with that said the NC/SC/GA/VA..there will be areas near or at the coast that might break records with their biggest snowfalls ever. Latest models show over a foot of snow for NC/SC areas and perhaps even further south.

    Few models have 12 to 16 inches. Amazing how close we came up here to getting that storm..but someone is going to get pounded but south.

    Will keep an eye on tonight's runs for any changes.

    Now once the Superbowl passes...the most active pattern of the year kicks in with disturbances almost every other day..some back to back. The big question is where the tracks for all of these line up. I have no idea how the models will handle all of these disturbances but if what they are spitting out now is accurate, we will have some first couple weeks of February to look forward to.
     
    #5028 jaywayne12, Jan 26, 2014
    Last edited: Jan 26, 2014
  9. Greenday4537

    Greenday4537 Well-Known Member

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    weather.com kept saying rain tomorrow. I was excited because my car could use it. Now they are saying no rain at all. Did whatever small system that was coming through move or just disappear or what?
     
  10. hiker

    hiker Well-Known Member

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    The WU forecast just keeps adding inches every day to the prediction, and I should be out of the worst of it here just south of Charlotte. I do have relatives on Oak Island that sound like they are in for a rude awakening. Freaky to have a snow storm coming in from the East as opposed to the West, where the Apps take the brunt of the accumulation. I can't recall that happening before, though I know it does. Incredibly rare, though.
     
  11. statjeff22

    statjeff22 2008 Green Guy "Most Knowledgeable" Award Winner

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    My sister and brother-in-law just moved into your neighborhood (Tega Cay) about a month ago from Massachusetts. They've had some temperatures in the past month that have made them feel they were back up north, but nothing like what we've been getting here, of course.
     
  12. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    just a frontal system that passed through. Woke up this morning to some wet ground and I have no idea if it was rain or snow showers that passed through..yep GD..my car could use a good downpour too. Between that new liquid lime? crap they put down before storms and the salt..my black car had a salt and pepper bearded look to it.
     
  13. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    This is some crazy cold stuff this year..crazy.

    That storm down south is going to bring many areas to a standstill. We go down to North Topsail beach every year and they received 3 inches of snow a couple years ago and it just sat there..no plowing equipment..nothing.

    They are forecasted to get as much as 6-10 with this storm. This could shut down many areas in the south for days.
     
  14. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Not much to say except that storm for Thursday is south..but the the storm the south is going to get has actually crept all the way up to DE and parts of South Jersy..some models even have NYC getting some light snow so you can see how far north it has trended..a few days ago, no one further than VA was getting a flake.

    Long rang still looks like rain shower day before Superbowl and then cold front comes through the morning of the game...game time temps a bit above freezing and falling below freezing by games end with maybe a snow shower.

    There is not a beast of a storm on the models until arouind the 5th of February..some minor ones before but nothing huge. The one on the 5th is a bomb..fantasy storm..bomb.

    We...again...shall see.
     
  15. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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  16. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    Saw that Jay put a few posts up and I got excited,,thought maybe ,,just maybe,,,,,,oh well no biggie we have another 5 weeks hopefully we get a few more good ones in,,,,,ps temps are dropping just walked the dog it's getting cold out there
     
  17. typeOnegative13NY

    typeOnegative13NY Well-Known Member

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    were about to get a rare winter storm here in the eastern Carolinas. Icing will be a problem. It has been frikin cold! Got down to 14 here on th coast the other night. Its a bitch for me because as a carpet cleaner/restorer,my van cannot freeze with all the water lines in it. So its portable heaters,and when it gets that cold,waking up every couple hours to check and make sure they are doing their job. So if the icing causes power outages here,im in for going out side an starting the van every hour or so. dammit.
     
  18. hiker

    hiker Well-Known Member

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    It looks like you will be getting mostly sleet and freezing rain, that's bad. And I get stuck with 3-6 inches of powder here upstate. Hang in there, hope we both keep the lights on the next couple days.

    Feb 7 is the day we set off for the Keys for a week, I am so ready for warm air and warmer waters. I like the cold, but its been burning up my lungs for over a month. I had to get steroids and an inhaler at the docs for this dry cough I can't get rid of, it only hits when I'm stuck outside for a long time. Which is every day. I'm starting to hate Winter like I do the dog days of Summer all of a sudden.
     
  19. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    Lonnie Quinn said last nite that the storm keeps trending north and that parts of our area could see some snow out of this especially eastern LI and the viewing area south,,,,he said it is just too close to dismiss,,,,,,,,talking Thursday
     
  20. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Taking son to an interview at Iona...will be on later...huge storm still on radar next Wednesday/Thursday.

    Good luck folks to the south.
     

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