Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

GREAT question. As of right now..and this is totally from the models...the coast of Georgia...Georgia...SC...NC..VA...MD...DE..and even NJ..just around Cape May...get snow?

Now southern storms happen but not like this..you dont have a storm come up the coast like that. You get a storm that cuts south and hits the NC/VA and maybe MD..an scoot out to to sea.

Certain model runs have this storm brushing 7 states? Not happening. Never can remember that happening.

So yes, in a nutshell for us...right now it lost the idea of the coming this far north but has it? Its doing all the right things except a track that is so uncommon its tough to buy.

Bottom line is this is pattern for two things that can happen.

1. Areas that rarely get snow...all get snow.

2. A more northerly inland correction is made in the future.

History tells us to lean with number 2...but we shall see.


EDIT: In fact this brushes North Florida coast with snow before Georgia. The one thing we know is that we have something really different we can track...and it can easily just go out to sea. Right now its not doing that.

 

Hell..FM..thats a ton of pressure....lol..but thanks.

Yes..Miller A storms Superstorm of 93...blizzard of 96...Miller A's

Again..thanks for the props..but its just reading models...a weird and kinky form of cheating..but thanks.

 

From the NWS for the weekend. I cant remember the last setup for this but I think it was Christmas Eve when we had that quick snow that came down hard and gave us a white Christmas. Now the models are saying take that and multiply it by 4. This could be interesting.

Saturday:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
502 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2014

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>071-078>081-177-179-251015-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
502 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BANDING AND/OR SNOW SQUALLS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. GENERALLY A COATING TO
2 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. LOCALLY 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF NEW YORK CITY.

HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS ANY HEAVIER SNOW
COMBINED WITH MODERATELY STRONG WINDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES. IN ADDITION...UNTREATED AND ELEVATED ROADS WILL
BECOMING RAPIDLY SNOW COVERED DUE TO THE FROZEN GROUND.

SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT

 

Looking at the long range...heating bills this year..killer stuff..this cold weather just doesnt let up.

2 thngs to look at...1 is the temps..and 2 for thursday they are saying partly sunny skies..so they are not buying into this storm staying south of us right now...which could happen. We shall see.

From the NWS:

Today Mostly sunny, with a high near 17. Wind chill values as low as -2. Northwest wind 7 to 9 mph.

Tonight A slight chance of snow after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12. Wind chill values as low as zero. Southwest wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday Snow likely with areas of blowing snow before 4pm, then snow between 4pm and 5pm, then snow likely after 5pm. High near 27. Wind chill values as low as -2. Southwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

Saturday Night Snow showers likely with areas of blowing snow before midnight, then a slight chance of snow showers between midnight and 2am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 11. Southwest wind 10 to 14 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 19. West wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.

Sunday Night A chance of light snow after 10pm. Cloudy, with a low around 17. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday A chance of light snow before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 0.

Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 16.

Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 1.

Wednesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 19.

Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 3.

Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 25.

EDIT: Again...I should point out..this is not an actual storm..its a clipper with a cold front for Saturday..not a coastal storm.

 

True GG...had the usual January thaw that lasted a week..and then right back into this. Brutal. Waiting to see the GFS model at 1030 to see if it brings this storm further north for next week.

There does come a time..unlike CBG and FJF who makes a good living from this white stuff that I get a bit sick of the cold. Would much prefer being on an Island..where the goal is to be in about 8 years off of the coast of N.C.

Would have no problem staring at the ocean tracking this stuff from there...I think.

 

You can bet this will be the last time in many years the NFL goes with a cold venue. Lol..take that to the bank. Not that there will be 100 percent a storm..or even teen temps..both can happen..just the fact that they are going through all of this nonsesne just in case. Not worth it:

NEW YORK, Jan. 23 (UPI) --
The NFL has determined any decision to play the Super Bowl on a day other than Feb. 2 would have to be made 36 hours in advance, it was reported Thursday.

The Newark Star-Ledger quoted NFL Executive Vice President Eric Grubman as saying a time frame has been worked out if bad weather forces a change in the Super Bowl schedule.
Denver and Seattle are scheduled to kick off the Super Bowl in East Rutherford, N.J., at 6:30 p.m. on Sunday, Feb. 2.

Long-range forecasts call for the possibility of snow on that date, but the NFL has decided the game could be played on any day from Friday, Jan. 31 to Monday, Feb. 3. The chief question would be whether league officials wanted to play the game ahead of a possible storm or wait until the snow moves through the area.

"We would need 24 hours to move the game time," Grubman said. "We need 36 hours to move the day."


A snowstorm that hit the region this week gave crews a chance to clear the stadium, concourses and parking lots in a "dress rehearsal."

The NFL gave itself a passing grade on the snow removal exercise.

Grubman said it would take 18 hours for a complete cleanup of snow from the stadium area.

LINK:http://www.breitbart.com/system/wire/upiUPI-20140123-230228-5461

 

came about 100 miles north...lets see if that continues..NWS still shows partly sunny and this time I get it...but its not even in their discussions...and that I do not get. Its a bit of a longer shot than last time..but its still really a nice shot.

GG...wow..thats incredible. Remember the ice storm in Dallas several years ago..that would be like a trip to Hawaii if game time temps were ever in the teens.

 

then again CBG..now the NWS is saying wait a minute..the EURO is saying it might be closer to the coast.

Again, while this could be a bigger storm than last...its also a bit more of a longshot..but something they are putting on their list to watch also:

FROM THE NWS:

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG
INTO THE EAST COAST...AND SEVERAL H5 SHORTWAVES WILL DIVE INTO THE
BASE OF TROUGH. SFC LOW FORMS OVER THE GULF COAST...AND THEN TRACKS
EAST. 12Z GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE LOW OFFSHORE AS IT TRACKS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING SIGNS THAT THE
TROUGH COULD BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. IF THAT HAPPENS...THERE COMES
THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE LOW WOULD TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND
PRECIP WOULD SPREAD FARTHER WEST. THE GFS IS KEEPING THE REGION DRY
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHEAST CT. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST...AS CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO REMOVE POPS AT THIS TIME. IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE...IT WILL BE DRY AND COLD AS THE SFC HIGH WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE LOW OFFSHORE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY
CHANGES TO THIS TRACK.