Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Also, that storm that was being advertised by Accuweather for Monday looks like maybe snow showers right now. As I mentioned in my post about it...never really bought into it with no model support.

THought that maybe that week we would get something good but now it seems snow showers.

Will say this, sometime next week between Tuesday night and Wednesday night, records will be broken. We will probably get below zero and perhaps Tuesday night some areas might get double digits below zero..and this is not including wind chill..not including wind chill.

Next big storm on the models for long range look to be the end of next week..perhaps Thursday or Friday.

Superbowl Sunday looks dry now but has to be watched...as we talked about a few days ago, it looks like we can lock in below normal temps..so this will be far from perfect..and unlike any SB game we have seen in since the start I believe.

 

The Euro ensembles just came out and are showing the chance of a storm that would form almost in Florida and go straight up the coast. Some members showed the storm getting close to Virginia and then perhaps heading out to sea...and some showed the storm going straight the coast and giving the entire east coast a huge storm.

So we now have a model showing something wiith one run...huge run tonight and tomorrow but the Euro is struggling this year..so lets see if we get any agreement.

 

lol..sorry CBG!!..DIDNT PUT A DATE!

That would be next Wednesday/ Thursday. Sorry about that. I just reread it.

The storm Accuweather posted for Monday is not going to happen in my and many others opinion right now.

Still showing the chance for a few inches day before superbowl sunday....and cold for the game..20s max.

Im here tonight..will be studying models.

 

Ok Staff..will attempt to answer what I can here...but I never knew you to be so upset about the model runs and how off they are...I may have missed that here. I have typed in bold below what you wrote.

In a nutshell Staff, if for one minute anyone thinks a weather enthusiast like myself or the thousands that write about it without a degree care about the calculus part of it...I couldn't in a million years.

How I get my information and how I judge what a storm will do or will not do is by history...by model runs..by certain model consistency....and here is the huge key..the huge key...but model biases. Every model has a strength and they all have weaknesses. Any good PRO has the ability to know in his head model biases.

Not until that actual storm is underway will you ever really here a pro meteorologist talk about deep rules of math. Frontgenisis etc. Where banding should setup and these are things that are not my cup of tea. Many will notice that when a storm starts...Im generally quiet and try to learn and inform by reading the true pros because thats when their education takes over. With all that said, they still have too many errors to count..because that last most important piece of the puzzle is that its mother nature.

I have said this a million times...trillion times. You would figure by now there would be the Michael Jordan of weather. That one guy who is so brilliant...so amazing...100 percent dead on..that all other weathermen could try to win the Title but they never can while he is in his prime. It will never happen. There will never be a Michael Jordan of weather. There is not one weatherman I know who I think is heads or tails better than the rest.

There should be right? The models are there for you...me...and millions of others to see and read and study. I mean there has to be one guy that just looks at them and says bingo...Superbowl Sunday will be 22 degrees and light snow from 710 to 822 pm.

Aint never going to happen.

The only thing that they all agree on is every 2 to 3 years, every model gets an upgrade. With those upgrades, half improve..and believe it or not...true story..half become worse than they were.

The weather will never be perfected. I can remember my favorite storm of all time..the blizzard of 96. That storm was nailed by almost every model a week in advanced.

Here we are almost 20 years later and although and argument could easily be made that the models have improved...and the high resolution models have...storms will being nailed 20 years ago also.

I can get pissed occasionally over models going back and forth but I really do not see much of a change over the past decade.

The only thing I will totally agree on is the funding for things like this have been in the toilet for years...reason being the EURO model has surpassed all American models. The Euro is having a below average year this year..but has ranked supreme in the past.

I know I probably didnt answer all you questions Staff...i just dont get too involved in some of that stuff.

 

If you read above FJF, the NWS already put out a special weather bulletin for this.

Believe it not it is a fast running clipper that passes well to our north..but all in all its just a front...with MUCH MORE COLD air coming through.

It will, according to the NWS snow very hard for a short period of time.

 

fjf...here is the post.

 

OH MAN GG..lol..how wild would that be!! forgot all about that. Im telling you, there is a lot of model agreement right now.

Let me check out this real quick. I know the EURO had it..let me check the GFS.

 

Ok guys..declaration time. Both models..the EURO AND THE GFS both show a near miss for next Wednesday and Thursday...1 storm..and guess what..thats exactly what we want to be right now.

Every storm has been a near miss until about a week away except this last storm that came out of the blue a little closer to the event.

I will say this..just looking at an almost identical setup between the 2 models...this has the setup to be a huge HUGE HUGE storm for next Wednesday/ Thursday....HUGE.

Polar Vortex in the center of the country acting like a pendulum that sweeps the storm from the midwest at the top...swings it down to the Gulf of Mexico and says drink up...and then swings it back up to the north along the ENTIRE COAST.

Even areas in Georgia..SC....NC...VA...MD...DE...NJ...PA...NY....CONN....MASS..right up the coast.

WAY OUT THERE FOR THE MODEL..BUT HAVE SEEN THIS TYPE OF SETUP BEFORE. This is a true Miller A storm right now...my favorite.

Great setup and the only thing that could knock this one out is that the storm hits GA...SC...NC...AND VA...then gets swept out to sea. That is the only fly in the ointment...7 days out..and like this setup.

Players enter the field late Monday so models may go back and forth but this is a very very good setup. Will post model pics either later tonight or tomorrow morning.

 

np bud...read the above post..we have a good one to track I think.

 

GFS just came out.

Had a friend of mine one time asked me why get so excited about a few model runs that show fantasy storms?

Here is a simple answer that could take me pages to really fill.

When you look at model runs...and they show a huge storm...perhaps as low as 980 sitting on the 40/70 benchmark Long./Lat. and its 7 days away....why get excited about something that right now is in the 20 percent category? Because every 10 years or so...an actual 980 storm is sitting on that benchmark and its real.

So when you look at a model run...make believe right now..its actually happened..and you study it to see does that really make sense? Wheres the high pressure to the north...whats providing the real cold air. Is this a double phase...triple phase ala the superstorm of 93. Why is this model spitting this out?

I would say every year on average the models 7 to 14 days out spit out a solution with this crazy bomb sitting down south over the Atlantic maybe 15 times every year.. but all the features associated with a storm like...well they just dont add up. The storm goes negative too late..out to sea it should be. On and on you can find reasons why.

To date this year I would say the models have spit out a storm this deep perhaps 15 times...yet no person that really follows this crap has jumped on board because the ingredients to the cake dont add up.

You can go on accuweather forums and see right now 10 storms they are tracking because the models spit out a fantasy storm. Most of the threads just die...rightfully so.

The reason I always believed early this winter that we would get a huge storm...and Im not talking about any of the storms we have had this year..they have been nice storms..but a real huge storm was because the involvement of the polar vortex.

Think back to 3 storms we have had this year that were so rare...really rare. Snowing with temps in the teens to single digits. How many times have you seen that in the midatlantic? Maybe once every 5 or 6 years. Not talking about light snow or flurries..but snow really coming down with temps that low. VERY RARE...but that has been the trend for this winter.

The unusual very cold pattern. Past patterns with well below normal temps usually are winters of suppression. Storms stay to the south and areas like D.C, Virginia and N.C. get more snow compared to the states up north. Has happened many times.

The reason for all of this blah blah blah from me is that there is a solid chance that even though these very unusual winters with very favorable setups could force a storm like this to the south...they have not so far. Although the ski areas up north have fared worse than us in the Metro area...storms have still been able to make their way this far north.

Here is a future model for this time period



This has triple phase written all over it..or it has 3 jet streams so close to each other that they will somehow peck at each other.

Notice the huge dip all the way down to the Gulf of Mexico. That is the Jet stream with that pendulum effect we talked about sweeping the storm from top left...to down low...then up the coast. Notice the polar vortex dipping down to almost the gulf..allowing the storm to tilt negative as it hits the east coast.

Again..fantasy storm on paper...but haven't quite seen a model spit out something like this in a very long time.

Now again..on paper this doesn't even drop a huge amount of precip over land...but its the setup you want to see this far out...and every storm this winter has trended closer to land and the coast.

By Saturday or Sunday night we will either be discussing how this is not happening..but flying out to sea...or a storm we need to keep a real good eye on to do something rare.

Time frame right now? Thursday/Friday..and not exactly a quick mover either. Fantasy...perhaps? Ok..fantasy is probably the wrong word and a usage my wife would be very very very very worried about...but you get the point.

 

gg...thanks..and right now if you go by the GFS..it dumps only about 5 to 10 and closer to the coast..but forget about that right now. Totally not important..because if the trend of bringing this right up the coast and closer to the coast the whole way..those numbers would be dwarfed.

Again, I know you get it bud...roll of the dice..but you need ingredients and this is the best start to truly a big storm we have had all year. Considering all the cold temps etc, the ingredients have been there all winter and although we have had some really nice storms, they havent added up to the actual perfect setup we have had all winter long. Something has to give or we get 2 or 3 more of what we had and consider this winter well above normal even without a huge one..still think we have at least 1 out there.

If you took the GFS verbatim, it shows snows from Georgia to Maine. While that probably will not happen, you have to read between the lines and say why is it saying that. The setup is perfect for something unusual. The question is what breaks down not to allow it to happen. There are a few things but this is an IDEAL setup.

The fly in the ointment all winter long to having a real huge storm is the pattern has been so progressive. Very fast pattern making the perfect setup for all very hard to accomplish. This pattern seems to slow things down..and its been the one thing missing with the other good storms.

 

another thing....this is a miller a storm. My favorite...hell..anyone that follows this stuffs favorite...this is a miller a



notice...cut and dry..one storm..no transfer.

 

miller b....the 2 big storms we have this year...miller b...busts galore right?



Transfers energy from one storm to another off the coast..much can go wrong and does go wrong with Miller Bs


if this storm happens..would be a MILLER A.