I wouldnt say that yet FJF...but lower hudson valley is on the brink..but as CBG mentioned...the blues and greens have turned your way..lets see how far north they go..and long they stay. At some point the colors will begin to pivot to the east as the storm becomes parallel with your location. Right now storm is centered east of DE. so we have many hours to go..perhaps 6 to 8 of heavy snow.
lol...thanks CBG..but again..only the history of the winter combined with the models. The one thing we have to remember this winter is when I say might be a big storm in 10 days...then I say no..not happening..just remind me about the trends. Im sure I will go back to the old pattern of not remembering trends. Storm is off the DE. coast and bombing out. Millibars dropping fast. You can see the solid green which is all at LEAST 1 inch an hour stuff from Wilmington DE to South East Conn...and about 75 miles wide so there are many getting these types of snows now. I know Lower Hudson Valley is struggling but those heavier greens are not too far off. Do they make it? I say yes..but only for a few hours so enjoy them. RADAR: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/radar/site/DIX.shtml?DIX Keep the faith...DREW IN NYC...ENJOY THIS ONE BUD..this is a rare event when NYC is in the thick of the worst totals. Oh..the winds..the winds...the winds..hold on to your hat..because they are within 30 miles of really blowing and drifting snow down here.
now here is a short range model of ADDITIONAL SNOW. Not counting whats on the ground. Areas in central NJ will end up near 20 if this plays out. Again, we are talking about snow ratios of near 20 to 1..so even at 15 to 1..you take the amount of precip and multiply your location by 15 for 15 to 1..or 20. Example for the hard of hearing....if your location is .6..you will end up with 9 inches MORE of snow at 15 to 1 ratios.....or 18 at 20 to 1 ratios.
another great observation I just read from someone at accuweather is this. Rain..sleet was never predicted anywhere with this storm north of Virginia at least..and areas in MD and DE have had freezing rain and sleet. The reason for this is the storm is closer than predicted to the coast..which has allowed the heavier snow to move further north. Since then, those areas have changed to snow..which means the storm has begun to chug northeast..very slowly right now.
my area has just entered the dark green..close to 2 inches an hour...see you guys in a bit and follow the radar!!..it does not lie. RADAR: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/radar/site/DIX.shtml?DIX
Christie just put a state of emergency for NJ..doesnt take much for the big fella to put that out there. By me? This is the hardest snow I have seen in a few years at least. Unlike the real huge storms, guessing its just a few hours long with this band..we shall see. Had the wife knocking on the window so came back inside to tell me "the fire was getting a bit low". What a great life huh?
temps were in the low 30s for many when this started..temps now 15 here..visibility 1/4 mile..and winds are 20 gusting to 27. This is important because for blizzard criteria, all that has to happen is those winds..and right now we are still 15 mph below the criteria of 35...for 3 straight hours.
and because we leave no stone unturned...Times Square live: http://www.earthcam.com/usa/newyork/timessquare/?cam=tsone_str
I was watching the two lows..one off the coast..and the original inland and something was weird..the coast low had not moved. There might be a bit of a war between lows..have seen this before. Saw it discussed over at A.W. but its rare. If thats the case...its the reason why some models are projecting near foot numbers for many..and why the lower hudson valley might get into the heavy snow also...while their overall numbers many not get near a foot..still might see 6 to 9 from this.
heavy banding has setup up over Morris...Essex...and Passaic county over the past hour and its stuck there. Im in Passaic county so Im not complaining..this is inch an hour stuff at least and I wouldnt be surprised at all if Brook is getting heavy snows at home now..and I know he hopefully is just entering his trip back. Brook...tells us when you are home buddy..hope all goes as good as it can.
Looking at the radar..its official..this storm will over perform for many from central NJ to perhaps Sussex county. This storm has many hours to go with heavy snows still falling. A call of around 12 for many..and the low side of 9 for most of NJ except the lower coast. There has been a bust spot probably because the storm produces its heaviest snow to the north west..but closer to the eye of it, there has been a dull spot from the beginning. Doesnt start going crazy until around Seaside..or about exit 82. That will all fill in heavy soon.
NWS update..and they are sticking with 6 to 10 for this part of NJ. They could be right..we are just starting to get close to the 6 number but something tells me it might be a bit higher...more like 8 to 12..with some locations getting to 14. NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX- SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX- WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN- EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION- EASTERN UNION-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- 400 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...SOUTH CENTRAL CONNECTICUT...PARTS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. * WIND CHILLS...AS LOW AS 14 BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT. * TEMPERATURES...DROPPING THROUGH TEENS AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY DAYBREAK. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. * TIMING...SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...TAPERING OFF EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. * IMPACTS...FALLING...BLOWING...AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AND WALKING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA... POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE. PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO FRIGID COLD AND LOW WIND CHILLS COULD CAUSE FROST BITE. DRESS APPROPRIATELY.
Ok,,,kids are outside playing,,,,at least one is,,,,,,,,big kid / is playing Xbox,,,,,,bigger kid/ me is venturing outside to gas up blower and see what's doin,,,,,,,do you like apples ? Wife is on a cruise with mom n a gazzilion friends how do u like them apples ! Ps where is that snowman making kit ? Updates,,,,keep em coming all Pss these tv guys still saying 3 to 6 for me,,,,will let u know when I get back inside about my numbers thus far
Jon..Newtown right? I think you are in the 6 to 10 range and that seems on cue but perhaps towards the high side. Im not good at much..but I nail early dismissals school closings..lol..nail them. My kids friends call the house all night long. But its because of yeah..kind of knowing what the weather is but also knowing MY district so well. With that said, I think many that are getting over 6 inches of snow would NORMALLY still have school tomorrow but either will not..or have late start because the storm for the most part down here..is done by 2am. Perhaps a little lingering..but even by you..4am? The reason is because at wake up time, wind chills will be WELL below zero with blowing snow..very hard blowing snow. So, it would not surprise me if schools just say screw it and shut down. BUT NO SCHOOLS in NJ for the most part will open on time..and I would think for the most of central and eastern Conn. would be the same. 50 % no school..50 % delayed opening..100 % no way schools open on time.
Thanks Jay. I am back home safe and sound by 5:11 PM Almost 3 hours for 39 miles between Englewood Cliffs and Madison. For a guy who doesn't really know how to drive in the snow, this was a big test for me. Thank God no accident happened.
wow..great brook..wow at that time. I cant even remember the last time I got caught in a real long one. Have been fortunate to be with 20 minutes of home most of my life..holy crap. Great..great you are home. Enjoy the night bud!
