think so FJF..but as Im sure you saw earlier...I posted possible bust areas..and the Hudson Valley is a possible one bud. Dwindling chances now but its on the northern fringe of precip..and only the radar while its happening can say for sure.
NOW...FJF...here is what Im talking about. Here is a more southern solution track and you can see the incredible cutoff when you get north of Jersey:
Jay What time you think I should leave office(Right next to George Washington Bridge) to make it safe home(Madison )?
Jay thanks for posting all this stuff / info ,,,,I really like the analysis ,,,,always found this shit fascinating ! Just drove home fom L I ,,,,,listened to a few radio stations,,,880 am,,,1010,,,, wplj,,,,and a few others,,,none of them said more than 3 to 6.....one said 2 to 4 ,,,all said " with lesser amounts north and west ". This was a half hour ago, are they still not on board or oblivious to what you have written Jay ? Keep em coming buddy I love the updates and look forward to them . If the snow amounts are higher or are beginning earlier please let us know as I plan on running out of NYC no later than noon and earlier if u say it is wise,,,,,we will deal with Wednesday when it comes but let's get home safely to the families first,,,,,,,nice. Job again Jayster
right now Brook, I would think no later than noon? But tomorrow, i might be on here saying we still have 3 hours to go before the hard stuff. I would go no later than noon..but remember we have some models that want to bring this heavier stuff in mid morning..so check out this site.
noon seems to be the time of latest departure right now CBG. Why are they saying that? Because its nice and safe. lol...all I can say is every model has queens in the 1 foot range and that might not happen...but we also are dealing with a storm that yesterday the NWS had Tuesday down for Partly Sunny. My point is, if it trended this much in 24 hours, I would take very high number they gave and say at least. I really think most people get 6 to 12..now Im not trying to paint a broad picture..those around I95 and to the east get 12..those to the west COULD go down an inch ever 7 or 8 miles from I 95. I know that sounds nuts but people 40 miles west of I95 could get only 4 to 6...I just doubt it right now.
Thanks Jay. I have an important meeting at 1 that I can't cancel. So I will roll the dice and leave at 2 pm.
Now..again..please check out this map which is a bit more conservative..please check out the difference between NNJ and Southern NY State. You have an area of about 30 miles that goes from 10 inches to 2 inches. This will have a large cutoff area. Real tough call where that sets up.
Update ? Anything changed in the latest run ?all systems still go ? Will check in again in a little while,,,,
Just upped SePA to 12". Looks like I'm in the game Finally!! Too bad I gotta go to work in this and drive 60 miles round trip today. I'm gonna check with the customer and pray he reschedules..
cman!!...in the game buddy. So they upped the numbers to 12 huh? You were always in prime real estate buddy. Not much changing here. Models have kept the track of the storm the same...but have expanded the snow totals north. My only fear for those that want snow is wiith the polar vortex dropping south...the people on the north side of the precip field..lower hudson valley...is there a fight to get heavier snow up there. Other than that...wide range of 8 to 12...parts of central/eastern nj could get over a foot..and quite honesly this storm bombs out and many getting close to 12 would not surprise me at all. Juat get the feeling at around 7pm tonight some will be getting more than expected. Get home by noon if you have to work..and enjoy. Snow is about an hour or 2 away. Im sure its snowing by cman already. CMAN..CANCEL THAT TRIP BUD...BY THE TIME YOU WANT TO GET HOME IT WILL BE A BITCH DOWN THERE.
Jay you are scaring me man. Earliest I can start driving from office will be 1:45 PM. It is a 45 miles trip for me.
Is this the site to get those weather maps? http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php Can't get it to work, always getting broken image links
Thats the one I use GG...broken links? That shouldnt be the case? Hit the view maps butotn then the model of your choice...then hit view. Just tried it for GFS and it worked. Snowing here in north jersey...Brook..145 is cutting it close to the heavy stuff bud..real close. Hey, the highways will be fine but just add half hour to an hour to get home I would think. Besdies delays, snow ends by very early morning, so your flights should happen. Looking at latest models man...somewhere in NJ to NYC through L.I. is going to hit a foot..and perhaps counting. My guess is central jersey..but you never know. Blowing snow later tonight and toomorrow will be a bigger issue than last storm...thats a fact. Because there was less blowing snow than forecasted last storm, they are not keying on that too much because of the late bloom with this one..but its going to howl tonight and tomorrow am.
thanks bud, realized that I had my AdBlock running on Chrome and it was stopping the maps from displaying. Looks like NYC is possibly going to end up dead center in the kill zone when all is said and done Nova Scotia looking at 2 feet+ out of this system
Yeah GG..NYC is going to double their total for the year. I believe they are around 15 right now..and Im not kidding, I would not be surprised if they get over a foot and closer to 15 when all said and done. Still no real changes but at some point around 3 or 4 pm...we will see who is going to get the band setup and the heaviest snows..and who will bust. Looking long range we can almost lock in a very cold superbowl game with a chance of a snow storm that would start saturday and end early sunday morning. Would lock in the temps..and just track to see if the storm does happen. Long range models a couple days ago showed maybe warm temps..but that doesnt seem to be the case now.
