cbg..I had a great asian dinner..great dinner. Good friends with the owner and chefs and they took great care of us tonight bud..ty!! Yes..you are correct...and that little dot is over 2 feet. NOW..BE CAREFUL. Here is the way I play the NAM until i hear from the GFS in 2 minutes...take the NAM snow amounts 48 hours out and multiply them by .75 States 14? 14x.75 = 10.5 Nam tends to overdue precip amounts with some storms..but heres the kicker to that..if the trends are now going back to a bigger storm..then the NAM will be higher tomorrow..right? So perhaps todays number makes sense..if that makes sense. Lets see if the GFS did the same thing and came in stronger.
Jay I hear its moving more north than northeast so far and NYC is looking at about 4 inches. You never know with weather so I'll definitely be watching, I have plans for Saturday should I be worried?
And the latest GFS...at first glance you say oh no...but remember...the GFS had nothing earlier today..the whole setup was much better tonight..and will get better tomorrow guaranteed...trends trends trends....so yes..MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS. Right now, you take these amounts and the Nam amounts above and split the difference. THE GFS:
Hey OB, I would say the models are trending with the storm more north...but the amounts are rising even further south..tough call. 3 Models for nyc I have just looked at NAM: 10" SRF: 8" GFS: 3-5 NYC is a tricky forecast because its going to snow..not rain..its closer to the center for the storm...NNJ will not get more than NYC..I mean in this setup, I really do not think so. NYC really has to be watched closely..and man...Long Island REALLY has to be watched very closely...certain models show eastern LI getting buried. Saturday should be totally fine bud. No model right now has the snow ending any later than 4pm Friday and most have it ending late morning...good to go.
One thing with all of this crap thats going around has to be remembered..and I know Im going to keep forgetting. Thursday night and early Friday will be very very dangerous to be out there with a broken down car or whatever..even if you only get 5 or 7 inches of snow. Important...moderate snow falling and temps diving to rare numbers while its snow..you will have moderate snow falling...temps in low to mid teens..and wind chills below zero. So even if this plays out as not a bomber of a storm...that above paragraph..thats what you will be hearing most about thursday night.
I'm sure you would know more about the storm tomorrow evening correct? It's still extremely early to be exact on the forecast.
Again..dont take it from me..but its not being talked about yet..this from the NWS..its very simple to the eye but you have to digest it for a second: Wednesday night: A chance of snow, mainly after 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 25. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Thursday Periods of light snow. High near 30. Northeast wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Thursday Night Snow. Low around 13. Blustery, with a north wind 14 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Friday Snow, mainly before 2pm. High near 13. Chance of precipitation is 90%. This is for north jersey...not Alaska.
No doubt OB...problem is tomorrow night I will be out until 1am...so will post as soon as i get back in...the local guys should start getting accurate by tomorrow evening..lol.
Lol news 12 the Bronx was saying just a chance of a flurry yesterday so I'm sure you understand my skepticism when I hear from local forecasters. I heard more on CNN today though about it, the storm is actually surprisingly big.
Jay not to get sidetracked but do u still see something big for Sunday ? Because NO ONE has mentioned it at all,,,,,all I have seen is a chance of snow showers,,,,,,stay on top of it all,,,ps will u post the Euro results tonight, they come out around 1 a m correct ?
all over the euro tonight CBG..i want that trend to continue...it must continue. Sundays storm is still a rain event for us here but has trended east with the temps so not out of the ball park yet...especially with the models still trying to digest where this all goes. BUT..its not longer historic of course..but would be a very hard wind blown rain. Now, once the models see how this departs..its a brand new ball game. Where does the cold sit etc. Here is what its showing now. Temps in the 40s and 50s...rain and wind..with temps dropping into the 20s by storms end..brutal. The only thing that is 100 percent definite is that once THAT storm leaves...get ready for the icebox because its going to be brutally cold tuesday....till the end of the week. Highs will not hit 20...lows below zero for many.
Yeah OB..I hear you. This storm has so much potential and so many good players in it..but they might not all be used correctly if that makes sense. Used correctly...very big storm. Not used correctly...3-6 except eastern LI and CONN and MASS getting the big snows.
Not sure if I can get my second wind and make it another hour,,,,if I am not here ,,happy new year all,,,,,,,if I am here,,,LET'S. TALK snow !
Euro didnt budge..so we are left with a consensus thingy here...until tomorrow. north of I80 and over 6 East and north of central L.I. 6-12. Until you get up to MASS...especially eastern Mass...10-16. Hudson Valley...6-12. So...tomorrow is another day. Will be on for a few in morning..a few in afternoon..and then after midnight.
Made it fortune ball dropping and the euro,,,,,:rofl: See u guys on new years day after some sleep,,,,,,happy new year all
lol...got up for some water..checked the models real quick and saw this from the NWS that pretty much confirms that even if its only bad for several hours..for several hours things will really get tough out there. From the NWS..going back to sleep: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 446 AM EST WED JAN 1 2014 ...A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW...NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST...AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... NJZ004-103>108-012215- /O.EXT.KOKX.WS.A.0005.140102T2300Z-140103T1800Z/ EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX- EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION- 446 AM EST WED JAN 1 2014 ...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... * LOCATIONS...EASTERN PASSAIC...BERGEN...ESSEX...AND UNION COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 9 INCHES. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. * TIMING...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. * IMPACTS...THE ACCUMULATING SNOW...ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...WOULD PRODUCE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
and even more dangerous...make sure you are equipped with heating or back up heating just in case..because overnight thursday and Friday...Friday night...again..from the NWS: TEMPS PLUMMET THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING TO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS INTERIOR AND LOWER TO MID TEENS COAST AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SE OF THE REGION AND NW FLOW DRAGS IN ARCTIC AIRMASS FROM THE NW. WINDCHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO LIKELY ACROSS CITY AND COAST AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES. TEMPS AND WINDCHILLS DONT REBOUND MUCH AT ALL ON FRIDAY...MAKING FOR THE MOST FRIGID CONDITIONS THE AREA HAS EXPERIENCED IN YEARS. &&
so it looks like a 6-12 event starting tonite into friday morning, seem right jay? sorry about the questions, trying to lockdown a contingency plan for the wife and kids if i am going to be doing an all nighter thru this
