Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Discussion in 'BS Forum' started by jaywayne12, Dec 25, 2010.

  1. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    great scene CBG..great scene. i can remember George was out of work...and they are in the diner...Jerry on the left..george on the right..believe they were talking about Jerry sleeping with Elanie? Ketchup bottle goes squirting? lol
     
  2. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Oh no doubt GD...IF..IF this happens...she will never be able to drive back friday bud..perhaps saturday? Wouldnt count on it being a safe trip even saturday...IF..IF it happens.
     
  3. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    You are correct--------Jerry says in passing Conversation " oh I slept with Elaine last nite " :rofl:

    now back to our regularly scheduled snowstorm
     
  4. GQMartin

    GQMartin Go 'Cuse

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    holy shit, I love the pink.


    if we get pink, then I get the pink -- ;)
     
  5. jonnyd

    jonnyd 2007 TGG.com Funniest Poster Award Winner

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    jay, whats with all the "IFs" lately? is there a chance this thing doesnt happen?
     
  6. GQMartin

    GQMartin Go 'Cuse

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    What's the time frame on Thursday / Friday

    I just looked at the weather ap and the low is -4 in NJ on Thurs. WTF? I left Cuse because of this shit.
     
  7. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    Nodded off and here I am awake and not many new posts,,,oh well gnite all,,,I expect this thread to be off the charts these next few days
     
  8. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    That a boy Jonny...great question..nice pick up.

    No..there is no chance in my mind that this misses us..none...BUT..BUT..there are a few things that can go wrong..or in your case..right in this setup. It will snow..but a little difference could be 4 inches or well over a foot.

    1. The storm models faster than it is now not allowing the two systems to influence each other..in that case? 3-6 4-8 for many.

    2. The models have the handoff for one storm to the other too early...VERY POSSIBLE...much less snow down south...well...for PA,NJ..perhaps even the hudson valley and some of CONN...and only central and northern new england get the big numbers.

    A few more chances too..but much less likely. This is a miller b storm for the most part according to the euro model. A smaller storm hands off it energy to a coastal storm and I have mentioned here two things about a miller b storm.

    1. As chancy as they get...they are responsible for half of the biggest snow storms to hit the east coast in our history.

    2. They are responsible for the biggest weather prediction flops in history...remember when you would hear a weather report 2 days before stating over a foot of snow...and a few hours before it starts they go down to 1 to 2 inches....MILLER B STORM.


    A miller A storm is a storm that usually starts in the gulf of mexico and phases with a kicker storm..but its by itself its own entity...little margin for error...and much more reliable.

    Sorry for the explanation length but this is very important with this storm.
     
    #4548 jaywayne12, Dec 31, 2013
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2013
  9. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    gq...ALL OF LIFE IS THE ABILITY TO GET AS MUCH PINK AS POSSIBLE..I hear you sir loud and clear...lol.
     
  10. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    I would think minus 4 would be wind chill...thats not happening on thursday..now next week...I can promise you this...everyone north of MD is going to be in the minuses over night for at least 2 or 3 nights..next week..is going to be brutally cold after Monday.

    Starting time is around sunrise Thursday but not heavy..light to moderate snow all day pretty much. IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT....Thursday night and friday morning...pouring snow and when 90 percent of the snow will fall....long duration storm but starts out slow for awhile.
     
  11. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    EURO MODEL COMING OUT RIGHT NOW...If it shows big still...all aboard. Lets see..give me 10 minutes.
     
  12. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    and just like that...the euro says yeah snow...but its not a bomb.

    Thats why with these storms you can go crazy from run to run. It will change..but there is no foot of snow for anyone with this model right now.

    My gut feeling..well its not even worth it with a miller b..quite honestly? I have no idea and anyone that says they do is a liar..lol. Lets see tomorrows changes..because there will be changes.
     
  13. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    and the latest euro...now you see why i come on here sometimes after a big model run in shock over a change..compare this to the other pic i posted. Again..this will PROBABLY change:

    [​IMG]
     
  14. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    and..for comparisons...yesterdays run. PREVIOUS POST IS THE LATEST....THIS POST IS YESTERDAYS RUN.
     
  15. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    This is some crazy stuff,,,,,,,,,,,,,,keep em coming Jay
     
  16. FJF

    FJF 2018 MVP Joe Namath Award Winner

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    i like 6-9 easy to move and not too paralyzing. looking ahead what does sunday bring?
     
  17. jilozzo

    jilozzo Well-Known Member

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    dont like the NAM for the tristate area. oh well. leaning towards a combo Euro/GFS jay??
     
  18. jonnyd

    jonnyd 2007 TGG.com Funniest Poster Award Winner

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    I like the down-trend on the snow totals. can we get an update as to a timeline, Jay?
     
  19. FJF

    FJF 2018 MVP Joe Namath Award Winner

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    *waits patiently for an update*
     
  20. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    First off..sorry guys for the delay. Mom is battling stuff and we just got back from the dr office.

    Jil..if you want snow...I dont like any of the models right now. The GFS and Euro are in better agreement but for big snows? Im telling you..miller b storms..not going to repeat myself again...they just suck.

    This has the chance of not producing more than 6 inches for anyone...even in New England. The pattern is so progressive...too fast..that was always a concern but the EURO model? If that model cant get a storm right 5 days out...or even close..then its useless to even talk about storms until 4 days out.

    The models..while showing errors..would usually get the IDEA right..but the past few years...no answers here as to why they show these fantasy storms that just fizzle out.

    It will snow...many will get 3-6...and if you asked me to put out a grand on there not being a foot of snow? I wouldnt do it because if the models went back to the big storm idea? I wouldnt be shocked.

    Perfect example is the sunday night storm. The Euro..which is within its timeframe to have a very good idea..is showing an HISTORIC storm for this time frame.

    HISTORIC. Now some might get an all out rainstorm with winds gusting to 60...those west could get 3 feet of snow. The temp grade for those on the east side to west side of the storm is 60 degrees to 10 degrees...historic.

    But do you belive it? A few years ago, I would have created a thread for that storm before we had this thread with incredible confidence that something historic is about to happen...now?

    Will be on tonite before going out to break things down but right now...GOING BY THE BEST MODELS...the storm on Friday is a nice 3-6 for many with the heaviest snows falling Thursday night.

    Then...on Sunday night...one of the biggest storms in memory will hit us...rivaling the superstorm of 93? Not quite..but almost...and with that said I just putting that in here because thats what the models are showing...
     

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