You answered your own question already. They're HYPOTHETICALLY elite; GMs have no idea at all whether a top Qb prospect (even one they really like) will turn out to be the next Peyton Manning or the next Ryan Leaf. Sometimes the cost of the unknown outweighs the benefits of chance.
Because any quarterbacks that are considered truly elite prospects go in the top 5 overall as the rule. In this draft the only such prospect is Bridgewater. Every other QB in this draft has significant reason to doubt that they may even be a starting caliber QB, such as (1) play against terrible opponents, (2) limited numbers of years playing, (3) playing in gimmicky systems, or (3) major issues in mechanics/decision making. So even at the 18th pick, we are looking at very risky picks when it comes to QB. Until the coaching staff is ready to give up on Geno, QB isn't the biggest position of need on this team. We're in a great position to take a shot in the 2nd and 3rd rounds to take a shot at someone without risking that much.
1. There are so many variables between now and the draft time. We don't even know if Sanchez will be still on the roster by then or not. [I would think that, with sufficient protection and talent around, Sanchez can be a viable option at QB - 2009 and 2010 tells me so.] 2. The keyword here is, the chance. Yes, he has a good chance to be just that; a franchise QB. But if I didn't tell you yet, I also strongly believe in the competition one faces during college days - and Blake had barely any if at all. I am thinking rather highly of him because he did well during the non-conf games, coming away at 2-1 mark against nationally ranked opponents, but I still have my reservations. 3. My belief in the draft is that, you must get a day 1 contributor out of the first three rounds - drafting a future QB flies directly in the face of this belief, as I do not support the notion of starting rookie QB come the new season. But that's ok - I am willing to sacrifice one full year's production if it is used to groom the new QB; QB position is that important. But I will not sacrifice 1st round production for a QB prospect that a. did not face elite competition much and b. still needs a lot of corrections. So if anyone else is willing to reach for him - good for them. It's their loss, and not mine. If they can afford to take him, more power to them; but this team needs more than just one QB, and I will not sacrifice everything because he is a QB either. Simple as that. Regardless of what I think he might become a few years down the road, the fact remains as such. 4. It would make things quite easier if Jets can trade either Sanchez or Geno for a day 1 pick. If that happens, I probably won't mind throwing 1st round pick on Bortles. [I know it's not happening in this universe anyway.] 5. Also, it will depend a lot on who is remaining on the board; if he happens to be the best value at that spot, then I'm picking him, despite the reservation I have.
This is the crux of the argument. You don't reach for a prospect at QB when you are still evaluating the guy you took in the 2nd round last year. If a great prospect drops to you maybe you have to take him but there are two great prospects tops at QB in this draft. Let the draft progress naturally and get the best player available at each pick. That's how the Jets profit from the position they are in right now. Lots of picks to make, lots of talent out there in the first 4 rounds. Just go get 5 good prospects to add to the haul from last year. There will be QB's that people in this thread like sitting there in the 4th round. Some of them considered by some to be 1st round picks at this point.
Not that anonymous GMs are to be trusted, but this is interesting... http://www.rotoworld.com/player/cfb/131397/johnny-manziel An NFL general manager told NFL.com's Ian Rapoport that the 2014 quarterback class reminds him of the QBs in the 2011 draft. Ladies and gentleman, that isn't a compliment. After Cam Newton, the 2011 class was filled with duds such as Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder. Of course, that doesn't mean that the 2011 draft class was subpar. On the contrary, the top 15 included: Von Miller, Marcell Dareus, A.J. Green, Patrick Peterson, Julio Jones, Aldon Smith, Tyron Smith, J.J. Watt, Nick Fairley, Robert Quinn and Mike Pouncey. This year's quarterback group is very deep, but some believe that it doesn't possess a blue-chip prospect.
2011's Rd 1 had some of the best defensive players drafted in years. The 30th pick turned out fairly well.
Manziel was unreal last night in the 2nd half. On one hand, he looks awesome. He can feel the pressure, his change of direction and quickness are off the charts, has great vision and accuracy, and a very good, if not great arm. He's a great leader. On the other hand, I didn't like his rolling his eyes and sulking on the sidelines when A&M's D was powerless to stop Duke at times. I'm also not certain that he will have the same escapability or same positive effect in the NFL that he does in college. In the NFL players are bigger, faster and quicker. With his small stature, he could get seriously injured if he tries to run as much as he did against Duke last night. In the end last night, it was his running ability, not his passing that enabled A&M to come back and win. Take away all his designed runs and scrambles, and Duke probably wins. He's also fairly short, and I'm not sure how strong his arm is, and if he could succeed in the windy northeast for example. I also think that if he got in an NFL WR's face like he did Evans last night, the WR might clean his clock. Then there's his off-field activities and persona.
He's Drew Brees with a little less arm and a lot more leg. He's either going to be a great QB in the NFL or he's going to get hurt like Michael Vick or he's going to flame out to his personal demons. Good luck figuring out which.
good post nc!! he looks like a real exciting prospect but there's alot to be seen on an nfl level. very interested in watching bortles who is playing now. his drop back and quick release remind me of marino!! although this guy has great running ability also. we'll see.
IMO Ponder sucked at FSU. He was probably the most curious 1st round pick at the QB position not named Tebow in recent memory. I didn't think Geno was a 1st round pick and he is way better than Ponder.
Bortles looking less than human tonight. He'd do well to stay in school after this season. P.S. Actually, make that to a pretty damn good. He did throw 2 picks, but he threw for 3 TDs and ran in for another. That's pretty damn good, against 6th ranked team nonetheless. This kid is going to be an interesting case.
This is going to be a fascinating draft. Who's in? Who stays in school? Who was over-hyped? Was anybody laying in the weeds the whole time waiting to be a high pick? I can't recall another draft like this one, with so many underclassmen thinking about crashing the party and so few QB's from the usual big programs in play. Somebody ought to write a book about it.
I tuned into the Baylor-UCF game tonight primarily to watch the battle between Bortles and the Baylor kid. I had seen Baylor play a game earlier this season, but had never seen Bortles. I was actually disappointed in both. Bortles looked very good early and he surprised me with his speed, but looked almost pedestrian in the 2nd Qtr. The Baylor kid looked good in flashes and pedestrian in flashes. I actually got bored and stopped watching. I think the Baylor QB was staying in school anyway, but think Bortles should as well. I think if he has a very good year next year he will be the #1 QB taken and probably #1 player in the draft. I don't think either will happen for him this year. Teddy Bridgewater will be the first QB taken and quite likely the #1 pick. If he isn't, Jadaveon Clowney will be.
Did you see him in 3rd and 4th quarter? He was pedestrian in 2nd - that's about it. He was looking very good running sprint option on the last TD drive - then had a few clutch throws for the last FG that made it a 3 possession game. P.S. I am thinking it is more of an artifact of Baylor's poor defense than Bortles being the kick-ass QB prospect.
