You know whats amazing Jil? It went bang indeed bud...the snow totals are not exactly like the GFS but this will trend higher. I know you know this but when the ensembles come out..each model has dozens of different runs and then the ensemble run averages them all out and it more accurate USUALLY...the numbers will be even higher. The ensembles have shown this storm for awhile now while the actual run to runs have been all over the place.d CMAN!! You are back in play with over 6 buddy...at least.
snow totals from the euro main model..the ensemble model will add a few inches...guaranteed. LINK: http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2013123012/harrisburg/ecmwf_tsnow_harrisburg_18.png
ok..a couple of things here..some football related. The Eagle game will be brrrrrrrrrrrrrr...but the Packer game might match the great ice bowl..thats how cold it will get in Green Bay. Secondly, Im running like crazy today..but if i were just sitting here, i would have posted a million more times..this storm has POTENTIAL to be even bigger.
and last post for now..guys...heres the deal..no joke The storm on thursday/friday can dump more than a foot for many. The storm on Sunday could start as snow and end up being a major rain storm? with 60mph gusts..and major flooding because of the snow pack...and then it goes down to below zero the next day. Early hint...fill the gas cans for the generator just in case.
and the european ensembles showed the next storm all snow....SOOOOO....lol...jon jon..you dont want to know what that adds up to..but if the models are right..lets play math 3rd grade? 14+14=? Winds: 40 first storm...50 second storm....= f-u-c-$-e-d.
Jay I have zero problems with my addition my when you talk 2 nd storm I lose you,,,,,are you saying snow Thursday ,,,,,rain Sunday ,,,,and snow again next Wednesday or are we talk 14 + 14 = Thursday + Sunday ?,,,,,,,,,,,Ps my Friday plans went from indoors to outdoors just like that !
FJF...Will explain a bit more in a bit...but its very late Sunday. CBG..sorry for the confusion but I was posting exact model runs and that can be very confusing. One model had a huge snowstorm for thurs/friday..then had a starting snow huge rain and damaging wind storm Sunday night. Later the model ensembles said no to the rain changeover and showed mostly all snow for Sunday/Monday. So bottom line is this..Im sure by now the tv is filled with this storm and we all have to realize..the only time its sure to snow is when it starts. These are model runs...and fun as crap...but the storm has also trended to the point where cman gets clobbered. Soooooo..its trended more south but we call get snow now...does the trend south continue? Beware..but right now 2 huge storms may hit us Thursday/Friday Sunday night/ Monday. Both show very windy conditions where some will have blizzard like conditions. Be on in about an hour to make sure nothing has changed.
Hey Drew...right now I would think 6-12 and I hate when people use that broad of a range but still early. Lets put it this way..if it ends up being 6, something really wrong happened. If it ends up being 12..then it could end up being 16 too. Lol...want to know something...that really makes sense to me and might be the most brilliant thing I have ever written. Joking aside is that if it gets to the 12 range...with a fluffy snow...it could be 16. Whenever I talk weather with other weather guys and we talk about the blizzard of 96...only 1.65 inches of precip fell for most. Thats 16.5 inches of snow. But it was so cold that the ratios were not 10 to 1 but 15-1...20 to 1 for some. Sorry for the long explanation Drew...but 6" and its a bust...12" and it could get higher...most definitely could get higher.
Ok...im lazy and I admit it but this storm needs live maps and not links..so Im going to start posting maps tonight. Did it one storm and its more impressive that just giving you guys links.
Hey Jay , the only thing better than reading this thread is reading this thread while watching Rudolphs Shiney New Year with the kids :rofl: Get those maps and ratios and updates up here buddy !
ALSO TO quote that wise man George Costanza about your being lazy,,,,,," Your not in the mood ? Well you get in the mood "
Ok..now have to work on the sizing lol..but you get the point..but jonnny is left out..and we sure as hell dont want that. Oh boy...corrected...you guys THAT ARE INTERESTED..ARE IN FOR A REAL TREAT THIS STORM! Im going to kill Petros memory. Anyway...this is the 1pm Euro first storm.
I figured 12 seemed reasonable judging by all the reactions. I'm due back to work on Thursday.. a nice blizzard would be welcomed to extend that vacation until next Monday. Thanks for all that you do, jay. Will keep checking here over the next few days.
Hey Jay it's not the snow that concerns me since I got the snow blower ready to go but what are the winds looking like here in Bergen County NJ(Fair Lawn). Great job with the updates although I always sigh whenever I see this thread get bumped. LOL.
I hear you Greg...and the winds could be up there late thursday and friday morning. I would think sustained 15-25 with gusts over 40? I cant remember blizzard winds but I think its sustained over 30 for a 4 hour period? Something like that..and thanks Greg...I do enjoy it so its no big deal and easy city.
Problem with that Drew is that it starts around sunrise Thursday but doesnt really kick in until very late in the day or evening. The overnight Thursday and very early friday will be real rough...so Friday could be...could be a lock...but Thursday might be passable for many.
So, if my girlfriend was planning to drive back to Rhode Island this weekend, would it be advisable to drive back on Thursday instead? Because if I'm reading that map correctly, some places are getting nearly a foot of snow.
