Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

FJF ...this is what you call a back door cover bud!..lol..very lucky but we will take it..snowed for about an hour here like there was no tomorrow..incredible snow..then clear skies.

Joe...nice lucky hit!

Merry Christmas and happy holidays guys...that storm I mentioned for New Years Eve has been backed up a day or snow..maybe the 2nd..but on every model..its a bomber..we shall see...but i love the look.

 

quick update and I will admit to being asleep at the wheel the last 24 hours but a weak disturbance hits overnight tonite and will bring with it light snow...mixing with sleet and freezing rain in the morning.

Not a big event at all...but with temps being so cold overnight, would expect crappy driving in the morning.

Other that that, next system is a classic noreaster with a major problem. Shows up here on Sunday/ Sunday night but does not have much cold air to work with. Either a pretty good wet snow event or rain.

Then all eyes turn to new years day...and 2 days after. I have a feeling sometime between the 1st and the 4th there will be a huge storm. Question is are there one or two. Will have many details tomorrow night.

 

Nothing at all CBG. As you can see..very quiet.

Will have a full blown write up tonight as promised bud but quickly...here is what we are looking at.

As stated in above post, next storm is Sunday...perfect noreaster except temps. There is no cold air at the time was we are looking at a moderate rainstorm.

Then the day AFTER new years...major questions but some model ensembles say moderate storm...some say big storm. Then a few days after that ....same things.


SO....


Sunday...rain storm

Wednesday night/ Thursday possible snow...or snow storm

Following Sunday...possible snow...snow storm.

Will have many more details tonight

 

FJF..the further north you go from the nj/ny border..the better chance you can see a brief changeover to freezing rain and snow. It will be quick. I never trust these rain changing to snow before it ends forecasts. Dont get me wrong,it happens. Usually during a storm. When they say at the very end, it usually is the cold air pushing the storm out and drying out..so perhaps a bit for you..but very little if anything down here.

 

lol..and some of those darts might end up on the ceiling cman.

A lot of question marks and model disagreement for the next 10 days.

The one certain is the mostly rain storm for those south of Albany on Sunday..in fact rain could be heavy at times on Sunday afternoon.

After that...yep...dart board material.

Possible storm the day after New Years that could be a slight miss south..and then 2 days later.

Was going to post a big write up tonight but there is such little agreement, Im not really into talking out of my butt to make it interesting...lol.

What is happening with the models long term lately..in fact the past few years..is they have these fantasy storms about 10 to 14 days out...I mean huge record breakers...only to fizzle a bit or all together when they get around 7 days out.

So you try to look for whats real and whats not. If I posted every threat since winter started everyone's heads would explode.

So in a nutshell the post I have above sticks...and I would put the chances at around 50% for some kind of snow..and less than 20% for a real monster of a storm because Im just getting a bit sick of the long term models.

Now the European model...the best model..is different...it seems to never show an actual storm until about 5 days out. As good as it is...thats not much fun tracking. So right now it shows no phasing. Right on course.

I read this blogger who has been claiming the end of the world for 2 weeks now for the day after New Years and its the 6th time this year he has claimed so. Only to come on 5 days before the storm and say how the models screwed up...and that it will not happen...when it was never really clear it would happen in the first place.

So we wait and see. I used to get all of my weather info decades ago from reading the NWS internal discussions. You would read about the possibility of a storm 8 days out but unlikely. I would follow those by reading the next day...and the next...and the boom...now its likely.

And thats what watching models does. One day, they just spit out a real chance...and thats what we wait for...it will happen soon...just how big we do not know yet.

The real key for snow lovers is the pattern..the pattern...the pattern. If you look back in October, I posted about wanting to see something good..some solid little snows before the 15th of December. Will try to look back for that post. It starts the pattern that usually ends up with one or two huge snowstorms that year. When it does not snow before Christmas its more pot luck. I really believe the pattern has been started for something big at some point this winter. You have storms coming up the coast..but not the huge phase...or in Sundays case, not enough cold air. Sooner or later it will happen.

 

Ok...every so often I get one right...because we are ahead of winter snows so far this year...perhaps not south where CMAN is.

I also looked at the post before this and was wrong about 3 out of 5 things concerning something else...so no bragging here. You can go back and find 55 mistakes...but this bolded part USUALLY leads to a busy season.

 

wow...just looked at the models for next weeks storm..and now agreement? So...we have something to track for next thursday and friday that could be a nice nice hit.

 

no tease cbg...its major alert time for next thursday and friday. Potential for 6-12..some models have blizzard..not biting totally yet but lots of agreement..except the american model...damn americans.

 

now both the euro model and other models have the storm forming too far north for the big one..only a 2 to 4 event..and that will change. Not sure if it will enough for a big storm.

 

lol..lots of time cbg!..dont worry...the models will come back a bit at least..this has 5" of snow at least in it...i really believe that. Now can it be a monster storm? just takes development about 180 miles more south on the secondary.

ITS A MILLER B STORM...again..i will not rant about that too much.