Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

WTG JIl!!!...european model a bit by itself here but thats fine with me..if you take it verbatim:

Snow starts Saturday afternoon..becomes very heavy at times Saturday night ending Sunday noon..with 12-16".

Now..the problem? Today is Tuesday...but that is still within its range bud....checking to see if the GFS leaned that way.

 

What happens a lot of the time C is the trend starts with these models one way or another. Right now, they continue to trend colder and stronger. They continue to bring the storm a bit more out off the coast which is great. When that trend starts...it continues to a point when just before the storm, it recorrects itself just a bit.

There lies the big problem. Where does it end up. This storm was once a gulf of mexico special and now is a a transfer storm The Euro had a massive and very deep storm off the Jersey coast.

Now..warning you guys for the new phrase of the week..and you will know it inside and out when we are done. We have used it before.

MILLER B STORM and thats what this storm is. Just to set it in your mind..a MILLER A storm is a storm that gets its act together in the Gulf and is a single powerful storm that rides up the coast.

A MILLER B storm is a storm the runs towards the Great Lakes and throws its energy to a new storm anywhere from the Jersey coast to the NC coast.

Lets get 2 things straight right now.

1. I despise Miller Bs. They are a real tough call. They bust a lot.

2. With that said, just so no one can say Im prejudice, half of the greatest midatlantic/north east storms were Miller B's.

You will here me bitching quite a bit this week...so see ya tonight.:rofl:

 

Yeah...this has real potential CBG.

Now, for the NWS to have this already for the weekend..very very rare. This tells me that they think this is almost certain..to give 70% chance 4 days out? Very rare indeed.

Saturday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Saturday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
LINK:http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClic...2&site=all&smap=1&searchresult=Wayne, NJ, USA

 

I mentioned to CMAN about a week ago that you are always a bit hesitant to be in the big hit zone 5 days out..but we are no longer 5 days out..FJF and CBG are in REAL good position to get hammered this weekend.

Brook too..CMAN too but Miller B storm? Where does it set up off the coast..Delaware? Virginia? New Jersey?

I have seen Miller B storms where schools close before the storm starts because of predictions of over a foot..and those areas do not even get snow flurries. Visa Versa.

Checking models but right now? North of I84 gets hammered big time...areas in North Jersey are right on the fringe..and CMAN in southern PA gets 2-4.

By tonight..its very possible that CMAN will be in the 12-18 range. Thats was the trend.

Checking stuff now. I usually get up at around 430 5 am..but Im sleeping like crap lately!!

 

lol..I hear you...need sleep badly.

Dont go by the high on Saturday...they do not even think what that means other than the model is spitting it out..and that number could be true before the storm. The temps should drop.

Ok, Miller B storm right?

Storm forms west of the Rockies and travels along the lower third of the country. Gets to around Texas..bit east..and starts to phase a bit with the northern jet and starts to pull some moisture out of the gulf.

Then THIS storm starts to head towards us. If thats all the happens, we get our snow..maybe 3-5. But at some point on Saturday, that storm will merge with the Arctic jet...but where. DE? Near A.C. NJ? Does it phase?

See, regardless we get the storm. Yesterdays EURO had a full blow merge and there were huge numbers from PA/NJ/DE/ north.

Last nights numbers showed the phase but more north...giving areas north of I84 to eastern Maine big numbers..but giving us the numbers from the original storm...3-5.

The players have not even made landfall on the west coast or are still north of the border right now, so the models tonight will start to digest better data.

Again, MILLER B ...major hesitation going out on a limb. If todays EURO shows something big...I would give it still no more than a 50 50 shot of foot or more snows.

With that said, I would say we have around a 80% chance already of getting the 3-5 snows.

TIIMING: Saturday around noon..heavier at night..ending Sunday morning between 9-11.

 

Ok guys..will be on tonight.

Right now? Im still sticking with hating miller b's and as of right now..not jumping on board. The Euro model today starting doing the maybe stuff...Too many things need to happen..but lets see tonight. Hopefully I will eat my words.

Still a light to moderate event of 3-6. Heading into the city with wife and boys after school for some thai food and the tree blah blah blah...just looking forward to my thai food if you want the truth.

 

You know cman..I go to the city much less than I used to..which is sad. Kids are older and its either the Garden or dinner but only about 4-6 times a year.

Froze my balls off tonight. Had a great...and I mean great dinner at..damn..forgetting the name. They actually have 3 places within a block. Its on the corner of 46th and 9th?..10th? Im blocking out..right down the road from Broadway Joes. Wow...food is awesome. Been there 4 or 5 times now.

Where the hell was I going with this..oh..we get into the city in 25 minutes..parked and all from Wayne. Just flew through tunnel. Reason Im bringing it up is..for the younger guys...those that are close to the city..we take it for granted. I just get such a natural high as soon as I get out of my car. Love the place. 34th is the balls bud. You can go to every other city in the USA until you get to 34th and its like getting to earth and making a left.

Love it.

Checking models now.

 

Yeah Cman...Miller Bs.

Friday is a good guess but sometimes..I dont know. Sometimes it just has to happen and its all guessing.

I will never forget one storm about 5 years ago..miller B..forms off the coast of NC and goes up the coast. Over a foot of snow for everyone from Virg. to Maine predicted. Schools close..businesses start sending their people home early etc.

Now a Miller B is a secondary storm...so you sit there..and just watch this blank radar..checking the area around NC. Its just blank. The weather channel has stopped all coverage. They have someone live in Virg, MD,DE, NJ,Conn, MASS.

All of a sudden, off the coast of NJ you start to see the precip start to fill in fast...a storm is forming...500 miles north of where its modeled. By the time it gets going, only Eastern Mass and Maine get any snow at all.

Not a flurry south off Conn.

Miller B.

EDIT: Now, this storm is different by the way. The initial storm that will throw its energy to the coast will drop at least 3-5 inches for many...including you. Thats pretty certain. I didnt want anyone to think this could do the same with a big fat 0.