Thats a great move SS for one simple reason. If you are taking the entire Turnpike...somewhere on the turnpike will be a disaster bud...great move.
Will be checking the 930 1030 models which hopefully will lock things in. But one thing to remember..its 12-9 today. 12-9. While some of the storms have been rain..some ice..and tomorrow snow...one thing to remember is how early in the winter it is. This is a helluva start. Even if the projected 2-4 from the NWS falls..and if we were to get any kind of storm this weekend..and that storm is coming but might still be a snow to rain event..but if it comes, this is one of the fastest starts to an active winter I can remember in more than a decade. A lot starting to happen and its 12-9-13. Remember awhile ago, CBG mentioned if during a drought, which we are still in, can you make it up in the winter and we are about to find out in the next 3 weeks that you absolutely can.
all players are on the field. Here is the storm..just east of Texas and south of Illinois. It will continue to move east and start dragging moisture from the Gulf of Mexico overnight. Want to really say this will over perform but the speed of the storm has me biting my tongue. It will do better than the NWS 2 to 4 for many though. LINK:http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/national/weather-radar?play=1
Is this another morning in which I need archeologist tools to free my car? stupid me didn't even have an ice scraper. I had to use my hands.
Down here in Freehold, NJ, right on the boarder of central/south jersey, should i expect 2-4 or 6-8 inches?
Jay I will be checking in before then but also at 9 30 and 10 30,, I await your words of wisdom,,,phasing,,,now casting,,,,and such :rofl: On a more serious note am I bolting out of the city at lunchtime to get home in this mess or possibly earlier ? Or will there be no mess ?as usual let me / us know what to expect,,,,,,,,,,no preasure buddy but the kids want to sleigh ride and go on the tubes,,,,again no preasure :up:
gq...my memory sucks...where are you located? lol..very good..no...this is a much less ice storm..very little ice involved. Mostly all snow..if not snow..then rain for areas right on coast MAYBE or eastern L.I.
Freehold is on the higher side of the models and where the banding MIGHT form..I would lead toward the higher amount..no doubt.
Tough call CBG because if the timing is correct, lunch time will be at its hardest but you are traveling from the city up to Rockland county? Sorry bud..but you might be on the very lower end. Instead of a tube..you might need like a really big sheet of paper.
Spoke to early cbg..model jogged a bit more north...you can use the tube bud..but still in the 2 to 4 range up there I think.
930 model NAM just came out and its more juiced..a bit more. Ok..bottom line is we do this for fun...but heres the deal. This storm truly is one of those storms that makes no sense with the model predictions. None. I have a feeling many are either going to bust..or go over the predicted numbers but actually hitting the predicted numbers? Most will be in the minority. The reason for that blab is because 2 things. 1. This is a very strong storm when it does start to snow. 2. This is a very fast mover. Deadly combo for a bust. So how does such a strong storm drop so little snow? Of course because how fast it moves. Because it moves so fast, if it trends 25-35 miles off course..which it probably will, some that are predicted to get snow will get very little. The safest bet for heavy snow is central jersey/southern jersey DE and parts of MD. but areas north because of the higher snow ratios and slightly colder temps..if we get the same amount of precip..totals will be higher. Tough to explain but I just dont buy this being a 2-4 inch storm for many. It will either miss that mark for a decent amount of people or over perform. Leaning towards over perform because of the snow rates. There will be a couple hour period for a large group that it will snow possible 2 inches an hour. Now you get the puzzlement behind the 2-4 predictions. Will keep checking models tonight but thats the thinking boys!
I missed the early updates,,,,,,just catching up,,,,,maybe there's a 1 a m update ? Or maybe we just wait until the morning and see what happens ? jay good stuff thanx again,,,,be safe all
hey cbg...no real updates but as I stated..something real fishy about the numbers predicted by the NWS of 2 to 4 or1 to 3 on our local news 12. Something is just not adding up. To have numbers that low either means you have a very strong storm that just grazes us..or..well..thats it. I just do not see that happening. I get that this is probably a 6 to 8 hour event..no more. Still, the snow will fall hard during a 3 to 4 hour period. I really think many will get more that whats predicted on the high side of the prediction. No other real updates..its a nowcast thing. Start time was 6 to 7 am but if that happens..this storm needs to motor even faster. I would think it would be after 7. Will be on in the morning.
What I noticed on tv this morning is that the local guy ( ch 7 ) moved that heavy snow line much further north than last nite, it still says 3 to 6but he has it real close to my neck of the woods,,,,,,regardless I have a plan in place for the kids,,,,,,and if this event does happen I will blow out of work no later than 11and white knuckle it home,,,,,,be safe all look forward to the updates today Jay,,,,I'm off to make the doughnuts :rofl:
Good thing I had to get to work early today. It's been snowing in Livingston NJ for 20 minutes already.
No snow in Philly as of right now. All local schools closed though in anticipation. Local weather saying 3-6 inches. Most of the snow from Sunday washed away with rain Sunday night.
You guys are gonna get a bit more than we get out here DF. They're calling for 3-5" here. Looks like perhaps 2" on the ground already.
