Oh thanks CBG...i only apologize if I tell you a big storm and nothing happens..lol...but thanks very much sir! Again, tap me on the shoulder if I ever call for several inches of snow with a rain even that turns to snow...I should know better by now.
Here is a model I use a lot. Its accuracy is decent...but I love the animate button to give me starting times and temps/rain snow lines. Its not great with the rain snow lines but if you follow the timing, you can go back and look at the major models for the times it chooses for changes. 1 PLUS 1 kind of stuff. Link:http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Hit the animate button and you can actual pause it..then hit the + - buttons hour by hour to truly study each hour. That is how I came up with the start times in my previous post. Its a solid model....but you cant take the precip type verbatim. See...I give away all of my secrets so you guys truly understand there is not a genius here...just a bit of a hard worker...lol.
Not going to go out on any limb here but here is the NWS forecast. I think this is slightly underdone.: Sunday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. North wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the afternoon. ME I think this starts by very late Sunday afternon. Sunday Night Snow likely before midnight, then rain, snow, and sleet between midnight and 3am, then snow, freezing rain, and sleet after 3am. Low around 29. Calm wind becoming east 5 to 7 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. ME: I think again a little paranoid and safe...I really think we hit at least 3" Monday Rain, freezing rain, and sleet, becoming all rain after noon. High near 45. East wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. ME: Notice the high at 45..that high will be hit well after the storm is over. It says the rain goes through the afternoon...dont think so..should be over by late morning. Monday Night A chance of rain showers, possibly mixing with snow after 9pm, then gradually ending. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. West wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday A slight chance of snow after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 20%. ME: This is because of that storm I mentioned showing up on the models but just south of us...they leave it, rightfully so, at 20 percent because of the chance it can go 50 miles or more north. Will be on tomorrow early afternoon if there are any changes..if not..will be on a few hours after Jet game for the night.
A few minor changes...just checked the Euro and it does keep the storm producing very light rain in the afternoon on Monday so it may stick around a bit longer than I mentioned...I really dont think so..but they are the experts. Also, the Euro shows the precip starting around 7pm Sunday...I still think at least a couple hours earlier...but more importantly..its a very gradual increase in intensity. So it starts out as light snow and becomes a bit heavier later in the evening...say around 10 pm according to them...probably more like 8 pm it gets heavier. But that really does not make a difference because we will be nowcasting baby!!
Nice job Jay ,Now we will see how this plays out,,first things first have to wake up the troops and then go cut down a xmas tree,,,,later we will keep our eyes on the sky and on the ground :up: If anything is on the ground around dinner time ,,even if it's only a little,,,,we break the sleds outta the shed and have a little fun ! Keep us posted buddy :grin:
Boys and girls going to the JET game..this storm is WAYYYY ahead of schedule...sorry I didnt peak earlier to give you a heads up..but currently it should start before the game ends..and it comes with a bang..I like the fact that I predicted more than NWS...i tihink we hit 3 inches before a very late night changeover easily. CBG..enjoy the tree! I did mine yesterday...you will have a great night for it.
Incredible down there cbg...will turn to rain by tonight. We will have snow in the next 45 minutes to an hour. My guess is it should be snowing by no later than the end of the 3rd quarter.
I love having direct tv,,,watching eagles lions,in heavy snow,,,,,jay is this what is heading our way ? If so,,,omg
Amazing what happened to our south today...amazing. The crazy thing is the NAM...and other short term models had this strip of heavy snow..but they always do and weather people down there were not buying it..for a second. Most Philly weather guys had a total accum of 1-3 today...some areas around there got almost 10" of snow. Huge bust down south but to the credit to the northern weathermen..they did not bite because the storm was tracking almost directly west to east. Here local NWS still says snow overnight changing to sleet and freezing rain before changing to rain..but looking at the local radar, i think this comes in pieces...there will be a little lull until just before midnight when the snow/sleet comes back in heavier but all all..a 1-3 event. Tuesday still chance of a few inches....then late next weekend. Will be on and off all night watching radar just in case there are changes..and it could change.
Just looked at the RAP model and it shows precip drying up...then reforming in our area between 10 and 11 with some heavy bursts of snow then sleet. Will still be a real tough overnight..will keep an eye on radar refilling in..because all models show it happening. If you looked at the current radar, you would think the storm is now over..but its not.
Jay,,,,nothing here yet,,,,,,,,,hows my commute look,,,,,white knuckler ,,ice or just wet ? I am gonna set the alarm and wake up ,,,if the weather / roads blow I stay home,,,,if not,,,,,a working I will go :rofl:
Tough to say...radar is COMPLETELY dry but is supposed to fill back in around 10 to 11. I think that will happen but during this wait..temps rise..so I think the rush hour should be slushy..but around midnight will have a much better idea cbg.
got up early...very very very icy out there guys..be careful this morning. Do not see this changing over to plain rain until late morning..be careful out there. Its just flat out freezing rain falling by me right now.
real hmmm on the tuesday/tuesday night storm..right now? Could be a very nice 3 to 5 AT LEAST for many. Those numbers could go up.
this is officially an ice storm right now by me. You cant even walk on my driveway. Too bad many will wake up and not know what it is like outside until they take their first step. The NWS notified people too late overnight. This will be a delayed opening for many schools at minimum. I cant believe how much ice has fallen in one hour and temps all the way to south jersey are still below freezing so this will not get above freezing until well after rush hour. Be careful guys....its very bad out there.
quick update on Tuesday storm. If..IF models are correct...snow comes in overnight tonight actually and ends early afternoon Tuesday. Depending on the models..they range from 1 to 3 to 3 to 6..and I think I would lean to the higher amounts. So that would mean back to back bad morning commutes. Although the biggie has not hit us yet, you can see what we were talking about a few weeks ago...the pattern has begun for crappy weather the next 2 to 3 weeks at least. Big storm this weekend is 50 50 right now.
Work,,,,nope took a mental health day :up: Drove the kids to school......that was fun :up: Now what does today, tonite ,tomorrow bring,,,,,Jay get your helmet on and a bat in your hand you are on deck. :rofl:
Got a decent amount of snow by the Jersey Shore yesterday, probably tailing off the storm that hit Philadelphia, though most of it is melted now due to the rain. Are we in line to get hit with this 3-6 I'm hearing about?
I almost cracked my asshole open walking out to my driveway this morning. The only thing that kept me on my feet was my penguin-like balance on ice
