I would say you have a decent shot of staying all frozen throughout the whole storm..with maybe it ending as rain at the very end. I really cant see anyone staying all snow south of Albany. The problem is at some point the warmer air aloft will take over..but may never make it all the way to the ground. If it doesnt make it to the ground..then you get sleet/freezing rain. Now, the trend has been a bit colder and colder each solution..so I may be taking that back tomorrow night FJF..but right now, I think at some point you have to turn to sleet at least. Im going to check NWS for your local weather right now..one second.
here is your local forecast for your area. Sunday Partly sunny, with a high near 33. Sunday Night Snow, mainly after 1am. Low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Monday Rain, freezing rain, and sleet likely. Cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 70%. You can see the high temps for Monday..now that high could be reached after the storm departs. Still, your area for Sunday night only says Snow..which is a great start. The switchover for you may be after rush hour or during...but at some point overnight, I would think you would mix with sleet. Here is your link for you local National Weather Service. The good..its good stuff...they do a great job. The bad?...they are about 6 hours behind the latest models unless a big change...so you have to come here to find out the changes during the storm in actual time!! lol The link:http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClic...Hopewell Junction, NY 12533, USA#.UqFPDNjYFKg Hope this helps.
Here is the NWS discussion. I know some of it sounds like mumbo jumbo...but I will highlight how difficult that actual prediction is for Sunday night..which I believe will be the more aggressive storm: Discussion: THE NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN IS A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...WHICH EVENTUALLY LOOKS TO PHASE WITH A PASSING SYSTEM THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE MONDAY. 12Z MODELS SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN BRINGING IN THE PCPN...SO HAVE TAPERED POPS BACK TO ONLY SLIGHT CHC UP TO NYC/LI FOR LATE SUN AFTN. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE WITH THE TIMING OF THE PCPN LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z MON...WHICH UNFORTUNATELY CORRESPONDS TO THE COLDEST TEMPS...AND THUS ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED WINTRY PCPN. WITH COOLER TEMPS IN PLACE TO START SUN...HAVE A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW...WITH PSBL SLEET EVEN OVER INTERIOR REGIONS SUN EVENING. AS THE HEAVIER PCPN MOVES IN...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS BRING AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY OVER TO ALL SNOW WITH PSBL SLEET WHILE KEEPING MORE OF A RAIN/SLEET MIX AT THE COAST. RIGHT NOW...THE GUIDANCE HOVER OVERNIGHT LOWS RIGHT AROUND FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE AREA...SO CONFIDENCE IN TYPE OF PCPN RIGHT NOW IS FAIRLY LOW....WITH REFINING MOST LIKELY NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER AND HAVE A BETTER HANDLE OF THE HOURLY OVERNIGHT TEMPS. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP IN WARM AIR ADVECTION WHICH SHOULD PUSH MOST...IF NOT ALL AREAS ABOVE FREEZING AFTER 12Z MON...AND THUS SWITCHING ALL PCPN OVER TO ALL RAIN. THE MAIN TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY PUSHES THROUGH TUESDAY...SO COULD SEE LINGERING PCPN MON NIGHT INTO TUES. Bottom line with the first bold is they truly have no idea who will get what exactly or when the changeover happens for who. The second bolded is a new twist of hanging the precip around most of the day monday. Not really important because by that time, almost all areas will be light rain. So, what to take from this? Hanging out Sunday night looking out the window or taking a nice walk should feel winter like. Light a fire and enjoy it because by late Monday morning, it would be dreary drizzle..slush all over the place. At least we can pick two times, unless you are very close to the city, that will have a real winter feel to it. Late Friday night should be cool...as will Sunday evening and Sunday night. Leave the Jet game on time and all SHOULD be good.
I will say this FJF..and some others to the north and very west...someone..someone is going to get a very very nasty ice storm out of this. Where that sets up is a big ? right now. But it will be somewhere between NW NJ..and very north east PA up into NY State. This storm is screaming ice storm for someone. Very cold temps at the surface..very moist warm air riding over the top. Some areas, that surface cold air will never get pushed out...in those spots...major icing..and perhaps loss of power.
Stay on it Jay,,,keep us posted,,,,,,,you will have it more pinned down as it gets closer so let us know.
I live in AZ. We had one of the earliest frost I can remember. There is a huge deep bend in the Jet stream pouring cold artic air very far south. This cold air mass is also going to push east. It looks like this is setting up to be a very early cold winter. If you start getting early snow cover thermal heating during the night from uncovered land stops extending the cold weather later into the winter and the spring. This could be setting up for a very cold snowy winter on the east coast. Enjoy!
This is a very very very good point. Still has not happened to the north of us but its about to. The snow cover also allows cold fronts that warm up as they head down south to keep their mojo longer...allowing temps in the lower 48 to be below normal...great find Biggs. Good stuff.
Here is a map for the overnight storm tonight. You will see the graph on the bottom that says 0.2 0.4 0.6 etc...that is liquid precip. So 0.4 would be 4" of snow. In reality though, I would almost cut those numbers almost in half because a lot of that SHOULD fall as sleet..which really drops the actual numbers. This map is taken from the American models...the European models are a bit higher..but again, they do not differentiate between sleet and snow. LINK:http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_12HRACCUMSNOW_24HR.gif
weather guys up here have started talking 5" tonite. temps are dropping by the minute. we might be seeing snow flakes by sunset
I looked at the map but me geography blows,,,,,:rofl: What's gonna happen tonight ? Wifey has a girls nite out,,,,do I let her drive or should I get my chauffeur outfit on,,,,ice ? Snow? Rain? All of it combined ?
Awesome video. Yep, that's who we are. Bunch of warm weather and cold weather fans. I think we can call ourselves weather junkies. And jay is our dealer. Good stuff.
2 more hours cbg and you should be hearing the sleet pellets banging hard against the house bud!!..Brook...perhaps 3 hours...but its coming. FJF..you might get at least that..the radar is showing real heavy precip entering your area and our area in about an hour.
I got the goods guys...bunch of junkies! Storm is stronger than predicted...precip shield really exploding to our south and of course fly in the ointment is that the cold is about 2 hours behind schedule or it would be snow and sleet right now...2 more hours and bang bang outside..then turns to snow for about 2 or 3 hours at least.
The main part of the storm should be over by 7 am the latest cbg...maybe some left over flurries/showers. Yep FJF...the rain snow line is about a crawl right now....but very VERY slowly moving through NE PA and Central/southern ny state..moving south and east. Will give you guys 2 radars in a second. The first is the accuweather radar that shows the rain/sleet/snow line. The second is an intensity radar which you should save..it updates itself and is great for storms...very accurate where the heavy stuff is and its movement.
