Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Right now CBG...other than the 11th..which really has my hopes at a high level..there is nothing greater than 40 percent.

The Tuesday storm is a very close miss on the American model but the Euro has it way out to sea.

Then another weak disturbance on around the 8th..then the possible biggie on the 11th.

Unless the Tuesday storms comes into a more possible scenerio, we will be tracking a storm thats 12 days out..which I will begin to do figure around Sunday or Monday.

Tonight is a night after a quick outing I will sit down and really study stuff bud.

 

Just took a look at the short range models and Saturday might bring us a dusting overnight....the NWS has a chance of showers for Tuesday but they do not say how close we are to having a storm...they are buying the EURO which has it out to sea. Still a long shot..but a shot.

 

Although not huge...the Euro just showed a possible 3-6 event for Tuesday/Tuesday night..might want to keep an eye out for this which I will do tomorrow night..temps might be a problem with some rain mixed in there but this is pretty nuts considering the models had it..lost it..and found it again as we get closer.

Tomorrow night around 1am will have a write up on all the potentials.

 

lol...the euro gives..and takes away. This storm WILL form..it WILL come up the coast...it WONT hit us. This will be a couple hundred miles off the coast and will miss us and brush cape cod and Maine. This was always a long shot...but not happening.

But things stay busy..and while there is a bunch of bad news..no tuesday storm...the storm for Friday/Saturday mostly rain...the storm for next Tuesday probably a near miss...that December 11th/12th storm is still a monster on the models. Been that way for 4 days now.

While we discuss all the chances...that is the first real chance we are looking at in the next couple weeks. It would be a Wednesday/Thursday storm..love those...so this what we are looking for.

STILL WAY OUT AND PLENTY CAN GO WRONG...but its great to see the models showing this every single day..the big question and date is this..do the models still show a monster storm on December 7th? That is a Saturday before the storm...5 days before the storm..the crucial time to start the countdown?

Or on around December 4th...do I come on here and post...well the models lost the storm.???????

December 11th and 12th guys....

 

I will tell you this...starting next Saturday..things will become a bit unhinged around here

Storm next weekend ends as snow..and perhaps a bit more than we thought.

Followed by the 11th/12th storm which I have been harping about for 3 or 4 days now...love the setup...followed by the 14th/15th.

 

lol..will try brook but something..looking at these long range models..something is about to give..big time. I have not seen these kind of alarms going off in the least several years..at least.

It might be around the 12th..if that storm forms less or rainy..then a bit beyond that...but a few huge storms are coming..and it might be when you are away. Something is about to give here finally.

We will have several huge storms..and I mean memorable storms between the 10th of December and some time mid January.

I believe there will be much more than several storms...but I think, with the setup we are about to enter, that it will be as easy as it gets to get the right timing for big storms.

I think you might miss at least one bud!!

 

add the 9th of December to the list we are following..what the hell was that just now on the models? Shows a snow storm switching to rain at the end.

Will have a list of all the storms later tonight.

 

12-2/12-3 Possible freezing drizzle overnight for inland areas..nothing big..but could get icy for a few.

12-8 Warm front rain...followed by cold front ending as snow..nothing big but cold air sets the stage? Maybe

12-9/12-10 Storm comes up the coast and starts out as snow for everyone and actually keeps it snow for most of storm but transitions to ice for inland areas/rain for the coast. Some models show quite a bit of icing. Then rain to finish for most..not sure about this scenario....but a storm to watch out for.

12-12/12-13 Storm forms in the Gulf of Mexico and on many models is a pretty huge storm. Sometimes in the long range, models like to develop fantasy storms..and people that see it post about fantasy storms. The reason I like this time frame is because of the great setup..and the models have now had this storm for 5 straight days...still...a long way off.

12-15 Another noreaster

12-18 Another noreaster

Now is all of this possible? No...is some of it possible? hmmm..doubt it. Is there a big storm in this mess? Yes...I really believe there is.

And the pattern continues like this until New Years Eve.

CBG or Brook mentioned awhile back that because of the drought..can you play catch up in the winter...because lets face it..we have been in a huge drought..and there has never been a drought that didnt end. The answer to this is yes...and it could happen in the winter.

The only fly in the ointment is if there is enough cold air to feed all of the storms that are coming our way? Big question.

 

So much going on starting end of this week...smaller storms come through as rain to start...ending as Ice and snow by next Sunday..and then more storms next week..will give details tonight

 

Whether storm comes in a bit later or earlier will determine whether the Jet game is a snow game because one storm at least for now has come in common agreement and thats a storm for Sunday/Monday.

Starts off as snow and may end as ice or rain..will end as rain probably for those south of I80 but not before dropping at least 6 inches of snow.

We have our first real tracker..and have about 4 more on the heels of this storm.

 

quick update from the euro model and it shows mostly a rain storm for Sunday/Monday...sooooo..its wait and see. Still love the 12th...but the euro is the model of choice..lets hope for some changes overnight!