Will answer both you and BROOK here... The 3rd/4th storm looked to be a rain event but the latest EURO model shows snow now. It no longer looks like a bomb..more of a 1 to 3 inch event but that could change because the latest model just changed about 10 degrees. Will have more info tonight when I sit down and check all the models. The 10th is also looking like a rain or snow event..so those dates are very alive. Now snowing in NW jersey..so a changeover to light snow could be had for all in the next 2 hours. I mentioned earlier around sunset...that could still happen.
Just checked the lastest radar and still a lot precip needs to come through our area tonight..not real heavy..but its still in virginia so we have perhaps another 10 hours of lighter precip. The importance for that is that this night might be a cool one outside...might have a decent time period of light snow falling all night. Not much in accum..but still a nice site.
Changed over here in SoCen PA to light snow. Quick period of sleet and pellets before. 39F with no accumilation expected tonight. That's good because I got two turkeys outside in the brine to be cooked tomorrow starting at 0600. Can't smoke frozen turkeys..
Thanks Jay I will keep you buys come December time. Many flights for me and family between December 18 and December 31. Cman55 Enjoy your turkey day. Please post pictures once you are done cooking.
if the turkeys are frozen in the morning drop them in the deep fryer frozen turkey + boiling hot peanut oil = thanksgiving fun for all :metal:
LOL..FJF...Did that one time years ago...man..let me tell you something..you havent lived until you try a nice deep fried turkey..now the peanut oil is a twist that just entered my bucket list..not that I need one yet! Around midnight tonight, I will be doing a 10 to 14 day long range search on models and forums to see whats up. The latest thing I did see is some interest as mentioned on the 3rd and 4th. As that stands now, a weak cold front comes through Monday..and sets up just off the coast. The Euro model then has a storm form off the mid Atlantic and ride up the coast but not really bombing out until off the coast of Cape Cod. Now that has changed...the Euro had no storm and now has a light storm hitting us with 1 to 3 for Monday night and Tuesday and I wouldnt be surprised in the least if the Euro shows even a stronger storm overnight..the setup is there. The setup is actually everywhere for the next 30 days...lets get one thing on the table...we will have precip every 4 to 7 days from now until New Years Day....the questions are twofold....strength and precip type. Now following the 4th...the 10th...the 16th...and bingo...the 24th.
first thing I just picked up on models is the possible brief burst of snow overnight Saturday with the Lake Effect snows making their way down here for a some snow bursts. Not much..but its going to be blustery and a probably dusting. Also..the storm is still on radar for Tuesday/Tuesday night...not a bomb...but a decent event that is on 2 of 3 models..so lets say around 66 percent chance? lol...followed by another smaller storm on Thursday night Friday. Still checking. Light event for Sunday...and then a possible noreaster on the 10th. This is just going by forum talk..I will check out the GFS model in 10 minutes and then the Euro at 1am and give my own twist. Will have a write up later tonight.
Not much to add. The Euro model has the storm for Tuesday...the GFS..American model points it out to sea. A couple disturbances starting with this saturday that can produce a dusting...then Tuesday...then a small disturbance on Thursday...then possible noreaster next weekend. None would I put in the category of huge...or definite....YET!! So far, keeping track of models in which I will put in my sig. next week so we can keep score: Euro: 1 GFS: 2 Both have called for a storm that went away 4 days before the date. GFS has an early lead but if there is a storm of some kind on Tuesday, it will be all tied up. Will have a better idea by late tomorrow night!
Jay,,,,,,go enjoy your time with family and turkey,,,,,THEN GET BACK ON HERE with updates :rofl: Keep us posted Jay,,,,,enjoy the day all
lol..come on SS..this is a family thread...lets keep it clean please. Speaking of smoking Turkeys..my 18 year old nephew invited me "outside" to get some fresh air with him and his girlfriend..next thing I know...turkey...I told them I get tested every 3 months and gave it up a while back...but if I found out I had 24 hours to live....turkey. Ok..SS..i was being sarcastic..good one. Will be checking models later tonight...something has to give as we have 4 storms on board in the next 16 days. So my prediction of snow being on the ground Christmas day is over 80% right? Screw it..lets make it 100%. See ya in a bit.
If I were to give you my best bet...just now...while so full I can barely move..just sifted through every model run for every potential..anyway...if you were to ask me the best chance for a true huge snowstorm..I would go with the December 10th to 12th range. While this Tuesday has still a shot...these are all thread the needle type stuff. That long range storm on the 11th? Both models have a true blizzard now for 2 days in a row. Chances are slim because we are about 2 weeks out...but interesting to see the models all have it.
As I mentioned several times...the greatest snow storm in my opinion was the blizzard of 96..and here..I bring you some great old stuff. The weather channels local weather for our area just as the storm is about to hit. A few things that made the blizzard so great will be obvious right off the bat. First off, the temps...17 degrees as the storm started...unheard of. Second you can see the old local radar..just a wall of precip heading our way. 3RD you can see the winds...30-40 and gusting to 50...and 4th...the predictions..just check it out. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEZKaSKiggk and then a weather channel update later on..incredible: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yq1UNLolnd8 This video was almost 30 hours after the start of the storm. Local ny news as the storm has just started. Storm started around 11 am and this is the 6pm news and already many with over a foot of snow: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=veWyA5CrcgQ And the weather channel/local news..check out around minute 4 and change the snow coming down in washington dc..that is 3 or 4 inch an hour stuff. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xx6gyavdwUI OK...WHY ALL OF THIS? Because this is the goal for this year..we want one storm just like this to prove to cman his ariens can beat the crap out any storm. To lock CBG up in his house for days...and to give Brook some well deserved time off...lol..enjoy!
will never forget that storm. i was home on leave from the navy. that storm bought me 2 extra days of leave time. took me hours to dig out to get on the road when it was over though. i love snow but that was a bit much
Thanks for keeping us informed Jay. You rock as always. I started living in USA after 2004 so I didn't know about the 1996 storm. It was interesting to watch the videos.
Yes exactly :up: but Jay why only one of these storms ? Can't I get greedy and ask for more than one ? It is the holiday season and time for granting wishes,,,,just sayin:rofl:
lol..cbg...i would love to live through a 40 inch storm..love it...it has to happen once in a lifetime!
just watching the weather channel back then..I can remember it like it was yesterday. My wife was pregnant with my first son..due in March so she was closing in. It was before we bought our first home..we lived in a condo. It was a newer condo but the cold air that was blowing under the door..and through the windows if felt like..I mean..I can never remember a snowstorm when the temps were in the lower teens. The old saying too cold to snow..well not this storm. I remember waking up on Monday and we had close to 18 inches on the ground and the storm was supposed to end during the morning but the weather channel announced that the storm had stalled..and predicted another 6 to 12 inches for Monday. It just kept snowing...by monday night we had over 2 feet..and it was still snowing..not heavy..but still snowing moderately. By the time we woke up Tuesday morning, still light snow falling outside,the search began for our cars. We knew about where the cars were parked but the drifts...nobody could just find their car..so people started to dig and would announce "black car..toyota camry".....Silver honda accord...etc. We found my car in the first hour but took another 3 hours to find my wifes car...and then just dug them out. By Wednesday, everyone was dug out but schools were still closed...3 days in a row. Highways were open but you couldnt get down smaller roads because cars were dug out..but there would be a very narrow single lane open and you couldnt fit two cars down a road until Thursday. The amazing thing about that winter is we broke the record for most snow in a winter...the storms kept coming..but 2 or 3 weeks later a major warm front came through followed by a rain storm. The flooding was incredible from all the melting snow. After that it just kept snowing into March. Crazy winter to say the least...a winter that no matter how much snow we get can never be matched.
congrats to you FJF for the navy bud...very proud of you. Great job. Exactly though...that was one of the rare storms where everything just shut down for days. Even big storms now...within 24 hours things on roads are back to normal...but not that storm. It was just sooo cold. Even after they plowed finally after 2 days...the roads were just ice for another 3 or 4 days. Yeah...that was a bit much...but if you want a storm to just shut stuff down and watch a bunch of movies...thats kind of storm you need.
Okay,,,,,,lots of leftovers but turkey day is over,,,,,,,,,what's going on with these maybe maybe not storms ? You know the 4 of them that might only be one ? Where's the latest update :rofl: Lets get back to the chances are,,,,,,probability is ,,,,,,,,,up the coast,,,,cold air in place,,,,,,phasing nonsense :up:
