yeah, I'm appoaching it like this as a fan, although everything is so unpredictable..... gotta win one of next 2 on road (Buff & Balt) to be 6-5, with 5 to go. gotta go 3-2 in final 5 (I'll mark down Carolina as a loss, and one to Miami)...so that leaves beating Cleveland, Miami & Oakland. I think this gets us in the playoffs (my oversimplified analysis)
I believe we need to win the next two games to make the playoffs. We're 2-1 in the division and the Fins are 0-2. If we split the two with the Fins that leaves us 3-2 and them 1-3. One more win against the Bills and we have the tie-breaker against the Fins locked down. If we beat the Ravens we have them at 6 losses and with the tie-breaker. Any other loss by the Ravens basically knocks them off our tail. If we lose either of the games our prospects against one of the teams chasing us becomes much more nebulous and our margin for error shrinks a lot.
We essentially have 3 losses to work with. The rest of the teams can only afford 2 if they want to get to 9-7. If the Jets beat the Ravens they are pretty much dead, same with the Browns. If those teams beat us, we are still alive. Its even possible that we lose to the Browns, Ravens and Pins yet beat them out because we have 9 wins. It doesnt really matter who we beat at this point, its just about getting 4 wins. Our next 4 are against the Bills, Ravens, Dolphins and Raiders. If we can win 3 of 4 of those that would give us 3 chances to seal the wild card either against Carolina, Cleveland or Miami. I wish I would have bought tickets to the Browns game week 16, they were going for $18 on stubhub last sumer. That game has the potential to be the clincher.
if they win the next 2 I'll go so far as to guarantee they'll make the playoffs, just don't see them winnig 2 consecutive road games.....not this season.
2 Losses that I am penciling in for these teams Ravens potential losses: @Chicago vs Jets vs Steelers @Detroit vs New England @ Cincinnati Chargers @ Dolphins @ Chiefs vs Bengals vs Giants @ Broncos vs Chiefs Titans potential losses Vs Indy @Indy @Denver Vs Cardinals Dolphins potential losses vs Chargers vs Panthers @Jets @ Steelers vs Patriots vs Jets Browns potential losses: @ Bengals vs Steelers @ Patriots vs Bears @ Jets @ Steelers
I wouldn't guarantee anything if the Jets were 8-3 after the next two games, because we've seen how that can turn out. I believe winning the next two games gives the Jets openers in the playoff conversation. I think they probably then have to win 3 out of 5 to get in. Tiebreakers are a real bitch to deal with at the end of the season when you already have 5 conference losses and several of them are at the hands of people you are going to be breaking ties with. If the Jets lose to the Ravens that's where they'll be most likely. Put another way: lose to the Ravens and split with the Fins and the Jets are 6-6 in the conference with losses to the Titans, Bengals, Ravens and Steelers. That's like a prayer for their wildcard opponents to be the Fins, Browns or Chargers.
The thing though is, these (4-5) teams have absolutely brutal schedules down the stretch, while we have much weaker opponents. If the Chiefs, Broncos, Patriots, Colts continue to beat up on the AFC then we are in. Like week 16, ill be cheering for a Ravens loss when they play New England, no regrets either.
Just to be in the playoff discussion should be enough to satisfy this year. That said there is a real chance that after week 12 they could be tied with the Pats for 1st in the division. That's incredible given initial outlook on the season. Nothing should make a Jets fan happier than seeing Patriots fans wondering how the hell the Jets are tied with their team after week 12 : ) Now they just have to take care of business the next two weeks.
when i see these other teams schedules, I would feel pretty good about it if they won the next 2. some of these teams are going to be knocking each other off as well. but again i don't see 2 road wins in a row here
The only team that I expect to keep playing well down the stretch is the Patriots and that's just because they have a pattern of getting much better in the second half of the season. KC and Denver don't intersect well with the Jets playoff chances at this point. They don't play any of the AFC North teams down the stretch. They do play the Chargers (x3) and the Titans (x1). This gives them an excellent chance of knocking the Chargers, one of the teams we want to tie-break against, out of the picture. The Pats weigh in on that AFC North race with games against Baltimore and Cleveland. They have a game left against Miami. Thankfully the Baltimore game is week 16 and the Pats probably won't be resting anybody with the 2 seed likely in play.
Just beat Buffalo and win their home games and they have a great shot to be in. 4-3 gets them in at 9-7 if it shakes out the following way: Wins vs. Buffalo, Miami, Oakland, Cleveland. Losses vs. Carolina, Baltimore, Miami. Miami is currently 4-4. They would have the tiebreaker over them if it plays out like above because of a better divison record. Beating the Bills means just splitting with the Fish. It also means the Fish can afford only one loss against the rest of their schedule consisting of @TB, @Buf, NE, CAR, SD, @Pit. Tenn is 4-5 with Fitzpatrick at QB the rest of the year. They can certainly fined 3 losses amongst their sked of Indy twice, @Den, ARI, @Jax, @Oak, HOU to finish 8-8. Cleveland is 4-5 and if the Jets beat them Cleveland needs to win out to finish better than 9-7. Pretty unlikely. San Diego is 4-5 with a murderous schedle. Need to go 5-2 against NYG, @Mia, @KC, @Den, KC, OAK, CIN with at least 4 wins vs the AFC. The tiebreaker with them is conference record and both the Jets and SD are 2-4 in the AFC. I say root for Miami next week when these two teams play. A Miami win and it's very unlikely they win 4 of thier 5 games remaining in the AFC with that schedule. Baltimore is 4-5 and similar to San Diego with an even more difficult schedule. If they beat the Jets and gain the tiebreaker advantage they need to go 4-2 the rest of the way. Schedule is @Chi, @Det, @Cin, PIT, MIN, NE.
Ravens have tough games ahead even if they beat us......CHI/NE/DET/CIN/PIT. Lone layup for them is MIN. The problem the Jets face is that 3 of their wins are vs the NFC, which does not fare well come tiebreaker time if it ever comes to that. We are under .500 at the moment vs teams in the AFC so it is vital to try and get 4 wins out of 6 games vs the AFC. Even then going 6-6 vs the AFC might still not be enough so we don't want to get into tiebreakers As of now: Jets are 2-4 vs AFC Ravens are 4-4 vs AFC Titans are 3-3 vs AFC Dolphins are 3-3 vs AFC Browns are 3-3 vs AFC Chargers are 2-4 vs AFC The Jets vs Ravens game is somewhat vital nevermind for the head to head tiebreaker but if it gets to a point of a 3 way tie for the 6th seed. It sucks to be a game back of TEN/CLE/MIA as far as AFC record goes at the moment but you have to do damage on this stretch. That Carolina isn't must have and will be difficult so if there's a game to lose(You never want to lose admittedly), that'd be the one. Miami losing tonight and next week vs SD would be a huge help....that way the Dolphins don't get over .500 vs the AFC. Obviously you want IND to take out the Titans on Thursday, the Browns to lose to the Bengals to drop them a game for the AFC Conf. record. Baltimore plays Chicago so their AFC record won't get effect regardless but it is no brainer who to root for.....Chicago will be desperate for that game given the Lions beat them and now might have to try their best to latch onto a wildcard spot or hope the Lions just fall off.
Cincy still hosts the Ravens and Browns. You do bring up a good point though, the Ravens game against New England week 16 and week 17 Cincy do have the potential to be meaningless similar to the 09 Jets. That would a nightmare scenario, so just hope they got something to play for, especially New England.
@Chicago - Cutler is hurt with a pulled groin muscle. @Detroit - very tough game right now. @Cincinnati - Division game, who knows? Pittsburgh - Division game, who knows? Minnesota - Rollover. New England - Tough game and we're lucky it is not week 17. The week 17 game is @Cincinnati and we'd like the Bengals to have some trouble down the stretch so they can't pull a 2009 and rollover for the Ravens.
Conference record won't matter against Tenn, Bal, Miami (probably), or Cle. It really only matters against SD who probably have the toughest schedule.
McCown is the better option than a hurt Cutler. McCown has done a nice job in his 2 games, even if the Skins and Packers defenses are lousy. I can see McCown have similar success to what Campbell(CLE) had 2 weeks ago vs Baltimore. Might even be a high scoring game knowing those two defenses.
Its a game of "Who Knows" if there are 3 9 win teams tied. Especially if the Jets and Phins are of those two and the season series is split.
Conference record is irrelevant against everybody but San Diego. Ravens, Titans, Browns, Chargers and Miami tiebreakers are head to head matchups. Miami will come to division record before conference record if they end up splitting with them. San Diego is the only team to worry about when it comes to conference record. Currently, both teams are 2-4 in AFC play
