I have a lot of friends in the Philippines mostly in Manila but most are from somewhere else that are going to be hit hard and I work with a lot of people in Cebu and Bacolod which are going to take absolutely punishing hits. To make maters worse the island of Bohol is going to take a direct hit which only a month ago suffered a 7.1 earthquake and many people are still homeless from that. My guess is we could be looking at 5000 deaths and that's a low estimate.
holy crap. I didnt not see about the earthquake last month. My God...that area is so prone to almost everything possible. So sorry to hear that Barry...prayers to that area. They could really use it. As far as this storm is concerned, amazingly Im beginning to side with the American model because it just makes more sense right now. I believe tonights EURO model will start to trend that way. Although the EURO is GOD as far as model accuracy...its having a horrible fall so far. It has shown 2 noreasters in October that made such little sense I never even posted them here. This one made more sense because the American model grabbed it for a few days..but has since said no. The American model is showing more of a progressive trend...west to east with no cut off low pressure. If the EURO tonight at 130 am still shows the storm..then we have a true model battle. We shall see. Right now...someone will get snow...but its looking more south than north and not the bomb all the models showed at one time. Again...things can change quickly in 24 hours but that change needs to start by this time Saturday night.
According to Rueters this is the strongest recorded storm in the history of recorded storms with sustained winds at 195 MPH when it made landfall. They estimate that 12 million people are at risk including 2.5 million in Cebu the 2nd largest city in the country. What is scary is right now it is 1 in the afternoon on Friday in the Philippines and they don't expect to exit the islands until Saturday where they expect it to strengthen again and hit either Vietnam or China. What you also have to consider is that the Philippines are a group of small island so not much weakening as it goes through. This has the potential to be one of the deadliest storms in recorded history although my guess it won't reach the estimated 500K that died in Bangladesh in the early 70's.
i was reading about the very small movement..very slow. Did not see the part about regaining strength over water and boom again. Amazing how the storms in that area have so much warm water to work with...elevations are minimal at best and there is nowhere to hide. Im sure by tomorrow night they will begin to give the ugly details on damage and death. Very sad situation.
Ok..its game on here. Game on. I have seen models go against each other but never quite like this. One model..the GFS has barely nothing at all...I mean nothing at all...and now I was truly expecting the Euro to back off...or show the same thing....but no...the Euro just showed a true bomb. A very solid meteorologist posted this after the EURO run: ** ALERT *** 0z FRIDAY EURO MODEL GOES BOOM! ** still has Major East coast Low NOV 13-14. HEAVY SNOW INLAND over western half of VA western & central MD much of PA nw NJ se NYC Interior New England There is NO doubt are are now in another GFS EURO model war and once again the GFS is sucking and the Euro correctly sees the pattern the euro has 2 500 mb low at 96 hrs in the Jet stream ..one over Manitoba the other over SE canada. This is IDEAL for East BIG low development BECAUSE the Upper Low over se Canada FORCES ( laws of physics at work here) the energy coming down from Canada DIG southeast into KY and GA The GFS does NOT do this. The Upper level energy on the GFS Models are again sliding out to sea. The GFS is wrong on this. Now this guy follows the EURO model like its God...and in the past its smart...but we are still a long way away. With that said...if you follow the EURO verbatim...a line of 20 miles west of I95 from Virgina to Boston gets anywhere from 10 to 20 inches of snow. That line goes west of I95 about 50 miles from NYC north...and about 100 miles west from Virginia to Phili.(I95 runs closer to the coast as you go north and the storm also begins to exit after Conn.) I was really ready to throw the towel in but even though the Euro has a bad summer and a poor early fall...you cant argue with the winter success it has had recently...and how it seems to kill the GFS in the Winter. SOOOO....I would say we are now over 50 percent that a very big winter storm will setup somewhere. The models will not get that bulls eye zone down till Sunday but we now have something to track. Incredible. And yes Jonnny....Conn is in play with this one.
Barry My prayers go to your freinds' families and all the folks that will be hit hard by this storm. God bless them and protect them. Me too. I am becoming weather junkie in winter. Love to follow Jay's posts.
More on the storm Barry has been talking about....good God...horrible: http://www.cnn.com/2013/11/08/world/asia/philippines-typhoon-haiyan/index.html?hpt=hp_t1
LOL....finding a needle in the haystack with this storm CBG....this is going to either get very interesting...or not. Still..its basically one model against 10 models..and only the Euro shows blizzard...today at 130 the Euro comes back out.
Holy crap..look at that eye..to the north of the eye is the danger point..and thats being kind with this storm..its more like to the north of that eye is total destruction..hopefully your family is not near that eye bud. THE EURO CAVES TO THE GFS..and right now there is no huge storm for us. GG...that is a hellluva picture there bud...just look at that eye.
Wasn't ready for it anyway Jay. I'm sure we'll see one before Spring '14. Hitting the Jersey Shore tomorrow!
all the weather weenies believe its the start of a correction..that future models will bring the storm back up the coast...Im going against that right now. Trying to keep it real. The worst part about that is the EURO is on a bad slide lately..and if we do not have the EURO to count on to help us out...we are screwed this winter and will have much less time to know if anything is coming a week in advanced. Lets see if the Euro comes back with the storm. On the TYPHOON front...my heart really goes out to that area of the world..right now people are getting punished with perhaps one of the storngest storms in decades. We talk about snow storms here and joke about it..but this is real life stuff. TALIS..and Barry who have friends and family there....keep us updated guys..please.
I feel for the families,,,,my prayers go out to those over there,,and the loved ones that are here . ricky williams
I have heard that the city my friend is from is gone....it is called Tacloban and they estimate it was hit with a 40 to 50 foot wave. The airport which sits on the water has been wiped out, last communication from the airport....airport destroyed, send help. My friends in the PI are relying on me to give them news as they can't get much there.
still cant imagine that area getting 40/50 foot waves. The direct inland areas are so low elevation wise...what a nightmare. Here is a link with video and updates: http://news.yahoo.com/over-100-dead-typhoon-onslaught-philippines-020149206.html
