If the top high school QB in the nation was 6-5 235 pounds with a rocket arm, laser accuracy, and mobility better than Vick with incredible intangibles, team leader, Eagle Scout, invented the cure for Lupus, 4.0 GPA, 2400 on his SATs, and in college threw for 4000 yards a year for 4 years, 8:1 TD to INT ratio and 4 national championships. But went to USC. Would you not take him because of Marinovich, Barkely, Sanchez, Leinart, John David Booty? History of a school DOES NOT MATTER. The PLAYER matters. _
I honestly hate when people talk about a player's alma mater as if ii will stop them from becoming a good NFL player. The player is the only guy who matters.
Yup. But folks will still say Mariota is a risk because he plays at the same college Joey Harrington and Kellen Clemens went to. But so did Dan Fouts. It's irrelevant. It's the player, not the laundry. _
Alma mater is not irrelevant. Some schools have the tendency to play a wide open brand of football over the years. Now and then a great talent goes through those schools but mostly the stats are inflated and don't translate well to the player's ability to succeed at the next level. Other schools tend to play a buttoned-down style of football that projects fairly well to the NFL. It's easier to see where you can take a guy when he is playing decently in something that resembles a pro set. Still other schools play in warm and sunny climes with a laid back atmosphere that doesn't translate well to the Northeast and the heavy media pressure that accompanies a stint here. There's a reason that USC QB's disappoint. Marcus Mariota is coming out of a system that inflates his offensive stats significantly and is also fairly laid back with very little external pressure on the program. He's young and he hasn't faced high level competition very much. He has a very high bust factor based on all of the above if he comes out next year. Now he has control over one factor there. He can stay in school and get more seasoning and be a stronger actual candidate as a franchise QB after his Junior or Senior seasons. If he gets hurt he's lost a big opportunity, but how often does a college QB get hurt like that? If on the other hand he's worried that waiting will cause his draft stock to drop for other reasons? Well, that's exactly why he is a bad top 10 gamble next year.
Mid-season roundup: Scouts Inc (11/7/13) 2. Marcus Mariotta 3. Teddy Bridgewater 13. Brett Hundley 30. Johnny Manziel CBS Sports (11/5/13) 1. Teddy Bridgewater 2. Marcus Mariotta 7. Johnny Manziel 28. Zach Mettenberger 31. Brett Hundley Walter Football (11/6/13) 1. Teddy Bridgewater 3. Brett Hundley 13. Johnny Manziel 14. Tajh Boyd 17. Derek Carr CNNSI (10/22/13) 2. Teddy Bridgewater 3. Marcus Mariotta 13. Tajh Boyd 17. Brett Hundley 24. Johnny Manziel 26. Zach Mettenberger Bleacher Report - Garrett Baker (11/2/13) 3. Teddy Bridgewater 6. Marcus Mariotta 10. Brett Hundley 27. Johnny Manziel 29. Tajh Boyd Just listing the easily accessible sites. Add other sites if you have access. Looking for QB's ranked 1 to 32 in the 2014 NFL draft.
Good stuff. That Mettenberger could be a real wild card. Interesting to see what he does against the Tide. And no McCarron anywhere. Interesting. I know some guys hate him, he's overated, no arm, game manager, surrounded by talent, etc. I'm not so sure. _
Those are just the 1st round picks from those sites. Murray is 2nd-3rd round on all of them. McCarron is 2nd-3rd round. The FSU QB, Jameis Winston, is not mentioned on any of them because he has come on too quickly. This is going to be a very tough draft to evaluate for QB value. There are too many highly-touted sophomores and the odds are that most of them would fail if they landed in the NFL after just a couple of years in college. There are too many other questionable prospects who are coming on in their junior and senior seasons after undistinguished careers. There's a reason that 3 year starters are prized in the NFL and starters who keep improving season over season. The 2014 NFL draft is likely to remind us of that fact in a big way.
You and I disagree here. I don't think they are set up to fail, but one thing that is pretty assured, it's the most overdrafted position in football and I see a LOT of these guys going and going early. I don't think anyone is learning any lessons, I think if a GM sees a guy as a potential franchise guy, and they start coming off the board, other guys needing a QB are going to be aggressive and reach. _
2-3 rd QB not a bad idea.... If Aaron Murray or AJ Mccaron are available in the 2-3 rounds, that would be a pretty compelling value. While Geno has definitely surpassed most people's expectations (including mine), there are still enough questions IMO to grab a QB high in the draft. We have already made the mistake of skipping over guys like Russel Wilson and Kirk Cousins because we hoped Sanchez might still be our guy. We're in a position where we don't have to reach for a QB, but not yet at the point where we can say with certainty that Geno is the guy. Not that I think we would be if we took a QB in the first round, they'd have nobody to throw to....
Everybody is setup to fail. It's the nature of the competition. That's why half the 1st round QB's selected are busts in the end. If the field of guys listed now as probable 1st-2nd round picks are all taken there are going to be a few absolute flaming failures in the bunch. Half of them will wind up discarded by the wayside within just a few seasons. Most of the rest will be average QB's at best. That's just what it is. Now, the question is whether or not something has fundamentally changed about the NFL and the competition that would allow several talented sophomores to avoid the overall failure pattern the NFL has established over the course of the last 4 decades. I don't think anything has fundamentally changed in a way that would allow 3 or 4 highly touted sophomores to succeed if thrown to the NFL wolves. In fact I think the odds are that most if not all of them would fail in that situation. Johnny Manziel has never played against NFL caliber players. Everything that he's doing right now at Texas A&M is an illusion created by inferior opponents. When he gets to the NFL that illusion is going to fade away in a hurry. Then the question is whether or not he's got the right stuff to create a new reality once the illusion of greatness is gone. Doug Flutie did not. Great college QB that met the reality that in the NFL things change. Tim Tebow did not. Great record-setting college QB that met the reality that physical ability, particularly the ability to run the ball against slow guys, just didn't translate to the NFL. Michael Vick did not. Another amazing college athlete who couldn't deal with the speed of the NFL game very well at first and then started to get hurt regularly when he figured out what he had to do to maintain his edge. RGIII? We'll see.
I'm starting to believe Marcus Mariotta and Brett Hundley will stay in school. I think they absolutely need to, they need more experience. Bodies well for the Jets and kind of gives Geno another year to prove himself.
Manziel played two incredible games against Alabama--that's as close to NFL players an anyone in college football. By your criteria--NOBODY plays against NFL caliber players. He plays in the SEC which puts more players than any other conference in the NFL. Every team had cupcakes on their schedule, but he also plays a ton of NFL player stocked teams. _
I think you're being selectively negative. Sure, any draft could have a very weak QB class, such as last year, and GMs saw that and stayed away. And even with a strong class, it's possible for them all to flame out. But this draft could just as easily turn out to be like the 2004 draft which produced Eli, Big Ben and Rivers with Losman as the only stinker. History does not have to repeat itself, every year is independent. By all accounts this is going to be an incredible year for QBs. Shying away and missing out on the next superstar QB because of history is how not to win championships. Especially with the way the rookie wage scale is. Tajh Boyd could become the next Russell Wilson or the next Akili Smith. McCarron could become the next Matt Ryan or the next McElroy. Mariota could become a better Kaep or the next Dave Brown. Mettneberger could become a more accurate Big Ben or the next JaMarcus Russell. Manziel might become the next Steve Young or the next Flutie. You hit on one of those type guys and your set for a decade plus. You miss, draft another one next year. It's a stocked class this year, gotta roll the dice if you need a QB. _
Last point. LOL bringing Tebow into the equations. Every single one of theses guys can actually throw the football. That's the only reason I'm so high on them. Not one of these guys is Tebow. But nice red herring :grin: _
Eli Manning, 3 year starter. Ben Roethlisberger, 3 year starter. Philip Rivers, 4 year starter. J.P Losman, 2 year starter. Don't make my arguments easier.
We need our 2nd round pick next year. We can't waste such pick just for depth. We can easily get a starting WR in the 2nd.
To add to it, Cam Newton has passed the test as well. With that said, Im not a huge believer in Manziel's play translating to the NFL.
