Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Discussion in 'BS Forum' started by jaywayne12, Dec 25, 2010.

  1. Brook!

    Brook! Soft Admin...2018 Friendliest Member Award Winner

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    How does Ridgedale trees look? I say let more leaves shed before another snow storm. Put me down for rain.
     
  2. jonnyd

    jonnyd 2007 TGG.com Funniest Poster Award Winner

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    Well Jay, at least you didn't snow me out this October. I thank you. I wish you idiots who love the white stuff ONE storm this year. That's it. You can frolic like grown maroons through that freezing bullshit like you love to do and then it melts away never to be seen again. That's my offer.
     
  3. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    I would think this early it would be rain. Many point to the halloween storm but that was one rare bird.

    The American model had a few ensembles that showed the storm now too..but it also had a few that just showed a passing cold front instead. The latest Euro showed the storm but not as intense...there will be some back and forth until this weekend.

    One thing to always keep in mind is that models early in the season are adjusting to temps. The Ocean temps are still VERY warm....there is no ice pack to the north. A lot has to happen to make this right...now way up north...VT/NH/ME? Thats another story...they could get their first snow...down here? Have to be patient.
     
  4. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    lol...you are too much jonny.

    You might be dead on Jon..but perhaps a few storms off. This could be the winter of not much but when they do hit..big ones. Tough to get a feel yet...a few more weeks and we can get an idea of the pattern.

    If you go by the pattern so far, this winter will be above average temp wise for the most part but will have major cold fronts come through that last a few days before warming up. That is the pattern we have seen for 30 days or so. Does it continue through the winter?
     
  5. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    Jay,,,aren't we well below moisture /rain totals as of late? I thought I heard the weather guys saying that,,,,,if true then that has to come back around at some time in this cycle also,,,no ?
     
  6. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    we are in a near drought situation cbg...very close. Yep, what comes around goes around.

    For the snow lovers..and I know you are one bud...root for the American model because 2 runs in a row...spits out a blizzard for the north east...lol. The Euro has a storm but a day later and bit warmer.

    Euro/Rain storm/ thursday friday
    American model/ blizzard/ Wednesday Thursday....all next week of course!

    Lets start tracking baby.
     
  7. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    Nick Gregory got on the wagon last mite and was talking about this,,,,,,,,,Jay if the euro starts talking snow again let us know because I don't have a lot of faith in the American model,,,,after last years fiasco it has to win back my trust lol:up:
     
  8. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Euro model is onboard!...will be on in a few to talk about it.
     
  9. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    I think we might have to change winter from the end of October until Jan 1st.

    Bottom liine is the Euro now brings a snowstorm 15 miles inland from the coast for all of the big cities from Balt to Boston. The Euro dumps anywhere from 12 to 24 inches of snow.

    Do I believe that? This early out? Well, someone will get snow but we need to get to Saturday to see if the models show the same strength and track.

    The Euro was the first to see this storm about 3 days to ago and then lost it..when it lost it...the GFS American model found it....now both models have it.

    Sound familiar?

    Time frame:
    Starts Wednesday night as light snow and picks up in intesity all day Thursday and ends late thursday night.
     
  10. Brook!

    Brook! Soft Admin...2018 Friendliest Member Award Winner

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    Snow snow snow

    Still lots of leaves on the trees. I am concerned. Can't take another power outage really.

    jay is it time to invest in generators that hook up to your gas line and work automatically. It is too much money but if future winters will bring snow storms this early we might need to spend the money right?
     
  11. GQMartin

    GQMartin Go 'Cuse

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    It's a valid point Brooklyn.

    At the place in Madison, the leaves are pretty much down.

    At my mother's place in Bergen County, the trees have a lot of leaves (so much so I was getting frustrated because I do the leaves in the yard for her and I wanted to get it all done in 1 weekend not 7)

    This was a big issue with Sandy last year because the leaves were like weights once they got wet and froze.
     
  12. GQMartin

    GQMartin Go 'Cuse

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  13. GQMartin

    GQMartin Go 'Cuse

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  14. jilozzo

    jilozzo Well-Known Member

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    HOLEE SMOKIES. this would be an early one.
     
  15. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    I have that brook. Its actually a generator that converts the main items for your house over when you hit the switch. Generator runs and fridge..heat..cable etc..all good.

    Its a great great great investment.

    The only good thing is that MOST trees will be down by next week. If it happened today it would be borderline no good.

    STILL...ITS EARLY...but models agree there will be a storm..but where does it track..and where does the rain snow line set up.
     
  16. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    If todays EURO model shows it at 130 pm....I will go over 50% something is in the cards here. The American model back off just a bit...but thats normal for that model.

    Lets see what happens today at 130.
     
  17. GordonGecko

    GordonGecko Well-Known Member

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    Philippines to be hit with Supertyphoon

    For those numbers in MPH - 175mph sustained winds and gusts of just over 200mph, eye super well defined, crazy storm....
    http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/regions/11/06/13/super-typhoon-yolanda-stronger-pablo-us-military

    -----------------

    [​IMG]

    Super typhoon Yolanda (international name Haiyan) will be packing maximum sustained winds of around 268 kilometers per hour (kph) and gusts reaching 324 kph when it slams into the Samar-Leyte area Friday, the US military's weather bureau said Wednesday.

    In comparison, super typhoon Pablo had 259 kph sustained winds and 314 kph gusts when it hit Mindanao in December 2012, according to the Hawaii-based Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) run by the US Navy and Air Force.

    The JTWC expects Yolanda to reach peak strength today, November 6, and sustain its full Category 5 ferocity until it makes landfall.

    The weather agency said the super typhoon is already carrying 250 kph maximum sustained winds and 305 kph gusts as it barrels toward the Philippines.

    ----------------

    [​IMG]

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...5-an-extremely-serious-threat-to-philippines/
     
    #3877 GordonGecko, Nov 7, 2013
    Last edited: Nov 7, 2013
  18. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    It could be compared to a tornado GG but with the size of a hurricane. That is a record breaker right there bud. Cant imagine how many people will be affected. That is the type of storm weather lovers even cringe at. It will break records.

    As far as us..if the Euro comes true...Atlanta would even get a snowstorm...the big question with this right now is that its tracking a bit too far east to hit us with the big stuff up here.

    again...WAY TO EARLY...but something weird is going on again...very strange stuff.
     
  19. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    correction...the euro model has the storm a bit more inland. I was reading the latest canadian. euro model brings sleet and freezing rain to us changing to rain..but snow..big snows inland down to Georgia....incredible...and still too early to understand.
     
  20. GQMartin

    GQMartin Go 'Cuse

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    jay, just to clarify, you're in the NY/NJ metro area?

    Just want to know who "us" applies to.
     

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