i said the same thing last year at this time and 2 weeks later, bang. here's to NOT making it 3 of 3.
usually at some point payback is a bitch..but man...talk about a quiet year. Unheard of. This is the month but there is nothing long term...YET.
terrible bush fires near Sydney now http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/ne...-rage-across-nsw/story-fni0cx12-1226741839454
That's true, but to be fair to him he was talking about the Florida tropical season, and Sandy didn't affect Florida at all. More to the point, no one claims that they can predict where (and whether) a storm will make landfall when it first forms, so the fact that Sandy, which by the time it made landfall was not that intense, happened to hit at just the wrong place at the wrong time doesn't make a seasonal forecast any better. On August 8 NOAA issued their report predicting 6-9 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes this season (above average numbers), and as of now there have been 2 hurricanes and 0 major hurricanes. Whatever happens in the rest of the season, it is very unlikely that we'll come close to the forecasted numbers. The fact is that seasonal tropical forecasting is remarkably inaccurate, and I would argue that a report issued by NOAA during the months before the start of the tropical season that it will be an active season can do as much damage (because of people's attitudes when it doesn't happen) as a report that it won't be an active season (and people are shocked, like in 2005). 2009 was also way below average, yet NOAA predicted an above average season of similar intensity to what they originally predicted for 2005. The problem is that the forecast needs to be something like "We predict 6-9 hurricanes this season, but wouldn't be surprised if it is as low as 2 or as high as 13," but the general public doesn't like it when uncertainty is demonstrated to them. People are very uncomfortable with randomness, but it's everywhere, and we need to accept that.
GG - no need for the kudos but do appreciate ur comment. and to be fair statjeff is correct in saying that particular poster was zeroing in on the state of FLA at the time. the storm last year was quite an experience as well as the rebuild afterwards. there is an inherent psychology and excitement that goes into predicting and observing these hurricanes, blizzards, etc etc, regardless of ur meteorologic background. the force of nature combined with current technology is quite an attraction to the scientific mind. sometimes a dangerous one. i remember it - literally 17 days before sandy hit up here i was running on the boardwalk in long beach in 73 degree weather. the furthest thing from everyones mind was getting an 11 ft surge and having 3-6 ft of water in 75% of the houses here. as of a few days ago, there is an entirely new boardwalk, and i have yet to run on it. cheers
were going to have overnight lows in the low 40s here on the sc coast this week . That is Jan/Feb weather for us
Yep....the cold weather is leaking south now...most people in the nyc metro area will have their heat kicking on by the middle of the week at least. 30's for lows almost every night after Wednesday. Still...no storms in sight as Halloween grows closer...still going with the no big crazy storms around this time returns us to a classic normal winter.
Ditto Jay. I need some coastal info for the first weekend in November. Accuweather is calling for a storm. Dang it..
Thats quite the ways out for them to be calling for a storm...you are talking about the 1st/friday 2nd/saturday of November right?
just checked accuforum and there is not even a thread to follow for a storm. Now they lately are trying to keep threads starting more than 10 days out but if one of the major models had a storm...a thread would be opened. I will see tomorrow...if there is a storm on any of the models...it will show up tomorrow with either the GFS or Euro. Will keep an eye out cman. My gut tells me its a front...not an actual storm but lets see tomorrows GFS at 1030 am and the EURO at 1pm.
thanks cbg...this is going to be a fun winter!!....hopefully...and I appreciate the kind words but again...anyone could follow this crap...Im the only one with a backward enough mind to look deep into this stuff. Not sure if thats good or bad. cman...the GFS is showing a front coming through on Halloween with a possible storm forming along the front that could turn showers into a storm along where the front stalls...probably the atlantic coast. Probablility? I would say less than 50% but something to watch out for on the weekend in question for you. Lets see where we are out by Thursday. And Brook...we can start to follow your weekend of the 8th by the middle of next week...probably around the 28th. Right now that area is in its typical chance of a shower everyday with highs in the mid 80's and I doubt much will change but we will follow it.
That is correct. According to the Farmer's Almanac, I should be able to fish into early December though. I'm hoping to stock up during November on Sea Bass and Porgy.
cman..something to keep an eye on...both the euro model and the gfs both had a pretty big rain storm next weekend....the weekend for you in question. Last night, the Euro model lost the storm completely and for me that is a huge red flag that this storm will not come. The GFS american model still shows it but we have seen this movie before...the Euro loses a storm and then the GFS loses it as we get closer so right now Im sticking with less than 30% chance of a rain storm that weekend. Brook...will start tracking that weekend on Monday.
hey cman..as you can see no storm for the period this weekend except showers for Thursday night which could bring about half inch of rain...lower 70's for Friday!! Brook: The weather for Miami for next week leading up to yours...so far so good!!..here is a link to keep hitting as the week goes by for Miami that will keep you filled in Link:http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClic...ap=1&searchresult=Miami, FL, USA#.UnGKqtjYFKg weather: Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Breezy. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 73. Windy. Tuesday A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 83. Windy. Tuesday Night A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. Breezy. Wednesday A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 85.
