while the farmers almanac may be nonsense...they are not fools. They read the possible trend for the winter and act accordingly. They are actually very good at predicting overall winters..while not the best at actual dates. Lets see how they pan out this year.
I still think 78 was the worst storm I ever saw, my dad woke me up at like 2 in the morning and said he had never seen snow fall so hard in his life,,,,,and then we got a second storm like a week later. The drifts were unreal. I lived in an apartment house and I remember grabbing my shovel, getting my sneakers on,,, yeah sneakers and going out to make $ome ca$h after the first storm. When I walked off my 2 step stoop I fell into a 4 foot drift, I could not see the steps and had never ever seen snow that high. When I went back upstairs to put boots on my parents were laughing at me , and that I tried to go out in my high tops,,,,,,,,needless to say I did not need a shovel that day I needed C man and his Ariens ,,,,but I stray
78 had the two bombers of storms. Bother Miller B storms. 96 was a miller A...my favorite. Miller A's form in the gulf and just ride up the coast while Miller B's are secondary storms that form off the coast of North Carolina to New Jersey and hit hard and fast. I could see the argument. What I loved about 96 a bit more was the longevity of the storm. Sunday morning until Tuesday morning with no one getting out of their driveways until Thursday. Complete shutdown...as was 78 it just snowed about 24 hours more with the 96 storm.
Indian summer so enjoy it...peaking out on Wednesday where temps can get into the lower 80's. EDIT: Just saw the long term models for this week and wow...Indian summer starts Tuesday and ends Saturday with mid 80's from Wednesday till Friday. Cold front comes through on Saturday with heavy rains which we need badly.
nice for the start of october- may have to put in a day at the beach later this week. recall last year a few real nice early october days and of course 3 weeks later - bang.
Been up most of night 530 am here in melbourne aust, windiest 7 hours plus ever? Winds up to 77 knots reported . Lots of mess in streets is my tip . Lots of tired people today
Hey jay,,,,friend of mine was saying that some crazy storm is going to. Impact the west coast,,,,,,,,any info ? Ps does this thing die out or effect us ? Pass 30 days until we get snow I mean Halloween is just around the corner
yeah cbg...that storm is acutally going to miss us by cutting through the center of the country then head up through the great lakes putting us on the warm/windy but not much side. It also is VERY VERY ahead of its time..meaning the October surprises we have had here may have shifted west...shift in October pattern. Jet streams go north in the summer and come south in the winter..and if you would ask me what this early storm pattern for the west coast and north central part of the country means to me is that this winter will be different than the last two. I think our choices are storms that cut through the lakes..meaning more rain for us...less chance for this...or a correction in the jet stream that brings noreasters fast and furious starting in the middle of December..if not earlier. I think this will be a winter to remember....AND MUCH MUCH MUCH easier to predict with models grasping the pattern MUCH better.
Great question GG..and please understand..I dont mean for me...I just read models and NEVER take credit for knowing the future..lol. The reason I think it will be easier for MODELS to pick up whats going on is the trend of the type of systems that will hit the area. They are cut and dry..meaning...last year they would show a snow storm or storm weeks in advance only to completely lose them about 5 days away. It was the setup that the models could not handle. There have been years in the past when the models showed storms and were always right...but would get the temps wrong...showed snow but would be rain or change to rain instead. That you can live with. Thats expected...and will never be a 100% dead on. This setup for this winter looks familiar. I think the models will look smarter than the past two years when it was a disaster. This year you can look 240 hours into the future and say there will be a storm with 80% acccuracy....and just wait until 3 or 4 days before to be able to nail down the types of precip. Now the reason I believee that is because everything so far is normal. The midwest is getting the snow first....the great lakes will get their snow first. The only thing out of ordinary is the storm that will hit the midwest this wekeend..very early for that...but that happens there. Now if we get a halloween snow storm here again...then all bets are off..but I just do not see that kind of crazy weather hitting this year...everything looks pretty normal. The only thing to watch that would change the setup is if another Sandy were to come this way...doubt it..but you never know. And yes...I do believe this will be a snowier than normal time for our area. Not that we will have big snowstorms every week..but I think this setup will allow for an active gulf of mexico and a chance for 3 or 4 big snow storms...and perhaps 1 or 2 very big snow storms this year. HUGE GUESS...BUT...I like the pattern so far. NO GENIUS HERE...just love checking out patterns from past years and using them.
yep....good one gg. Two models completely not in agreement at all. The GFS model...american model has the storm blowing up in the gulf of mexico and hitting the Florida handle or a bit west..and the EURO model has it not blowing up but still formidable and hitting around New Orleans. Both models with different strengths have it then going through Georgia/SC and then NC and off the coast of Virginia which could swipe us up here with rain next week. Really needs to be watched for people along the gulf coast from New Orleans to the panhandle of Florida because it could be a decent CAT 1 OR CAT 2 storm if the GFS is correct. Weird weather with a hurrricane to the south and a snowstorm to the north..about a 1000 miles away from each other. October is a real weird month for weather in the USA.
brilliant baby..im friggin brilliant!! lol...not. Friggin Karen did not do what the American model said it would do so look for a weaker storm. With that said, for our area...looks like Monday/Tuesday could bring us 2 to 4 inches of rain...likely the lower number..but still thats a decent amount of rain. Track takes the center of the storm almost over NYC...not much winds...20mph or so..but rain rain rain. Now that snowstorm out west is something else..again..not coming close to us.
Looks like a pretty massive storm front about to smash into us this afternoon, if you have those emergency warnings on your cell phone it might be going crazy in a couple hours Big time flooding & tornado warnings right now in Scranton, this is heading our way soon
Yep GG...I have never seen this before but the entire state is in a tornado watch. This will be a hard hitting front that comes through and its in central pa moving very quickly towards us...here from the NWS: WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN- WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE- PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)- NORTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN QUEENS- 1008 AM EDT MON OCT 7 2013 ...TORNADO WATCH 543 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. TORNADO WATCH. A QUICK HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING PROBLEMS...WITH A LOCALIZED URBAN FLASH FLOOD THREAT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEET THE COUNTIES: NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND EASTERN UNION ESSEX GLOUCESTER HUDSON HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN PASSAIC SALEM SOMERSET SUSSEX WARREN Thats the entire state...when you start talking about an inch an hour rain...that would be like getting 10 inches of snow in one hour. This will be a huge downpour that may occur around rush hour which makes it even worse...will keep updating. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.
Timing looks like this.... Western NJ 230-245 Central NJ 250- 315 Eastern NJ 315-345 NYC 345-415 Long Island...west to east 415-515 When it hits your area its a quick hitter...half hour to 45 minutes and its over. Very strong winds and near 1/10th of mile visibility at most...some less than 100 yards. Get ready...because as you can see from this radar...its a wall of water coming this way: http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/pennsylvania/weather-radar?play=1 Hit the refresh button to get up to the minute radar.
