Hey Jay,,,,a guy posted on another thread that the farmers almanac calls for a blizzard around Super Bowl weekend and then I see that same story on the news. Is it true what the reporter said that the almanac is batting 800 and is correct about 80 percent of the time ? Hope you are well my friend
Considering that most days have no precipitation, and most of their predictions are for no precipitation on a given day, this is a completely meaningless statistic (you'd probably do at least as well by simply predicting that every day will have no precipitation). The base rate (how often a day has no precipitation) being high means that it is easy to get a high marginal probability (the percentage of being right). In any event, given that they have predicted a storm, the number that matters now is how often they are right when they predict storms, and I'm sure that is far lower than 80%. The marginal probability is no longer relevant; it's the conditional probability given they have predicted a storm that matters.
Bingo...I go with this CBG. I was a fan of F.A. when I was younger because it was the only one in the business of predicting weather WAY in advanced. With that said, if I were going to do my own F.A. this far in advanced, I would go with: A. This has no talent or merit to it. B. There will be a storm because thats what doing the unusual brings out. Just another story line for having the Superbowl in a cold spot...throw in a storm for controversy. C. The most likely...a 45-50 degree night with drizzle....lol. Again...getting close to Halloween..will it be 3 years in a row with a bizarre storm?
High-Pressure City? Jay, Is it true that we're going to have a nice stretch of sun and lower humidity over the next several days??!!
All 12,000 tropical cyclones / hurricanes in recorded history plotted on one map (1842-2013): http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2013/08/hurricane-tracks/
sorry I didnt not see that Joe...for here..after the storms tonight real cool down..big time. Yeah..as far as the game tonight we here will actually get the storms earlier then up there. This is going to be a problem tonight with most of the big storms hitting that area around game time and through the first half. There is no way this storm holds off until after game...just have to cross fingers that it will pass early on. My gut tells me at sometime tonight the game will be delayed. This is a huge cold front colliding with real humid air.
and now Hong Kong about to get smoked: LINK: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...6.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsThird
Okay,,,I am no Mr g or Alan Casper,,,,,,,help a brother out,,,,,,do those pics show us getting hit here close to home / do those pics effect us ? Ps I read the article about Hong Kong,,,,scarey stuff if u ask me . Ps jay Wayne 1 month and we start that snow conversation I mean it always snows for Halloween no ? ,,,,,,,,,,,looking forward to the posts :grin:
those are just tracks of previous hurricanes. They are so on top of each other it seems like many hit this area but if you magnify..most are out to sea..great pic though. YEP CBG..its countdown time bud! Early thing to look for is around Halloween. Will we, for the 3rd straight year, get a breakaway rare storm that throw the Jet stream for a loop to start the winter. Hoping not for many reasons...we want a nice normal smooth transition into winter. Things to look for: The greatest winter storm season on memory for me was 1996. We all remember the great blizzard of 96...BY FAR MY FAVORITE WINTER STORM OF ALL TIME..BY FAR. LINK:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_blizzard_of_1996 While that was the greatest snow storm I and remember (1978 had two beauties also) what may be forgotten was that the winter of 1996 broke records for the most snow. It snowed constantly...and most importantly...it started early. Not weird early like Halloween..but in early December. The storms began around the 10 of December and did not stop until about a week after the great blzzard...which was followed by a huge warm up into the 50's and 60's with massive flooding a few weeks later. Soooo..in a nutshell we want no crazy storms late October and early November...and for the storms to start slowly in early mid December. And of course for those that want nothing...you want mild temps to start the month of December with rain events all the way to around Christmas time to start that trend. One thing I also like to keep an eye out for is temps this time of the year that start to drop the ocean temps off the coast. Last year, if memory serves me correctly, I didnt turn the heat on until late October...very late...while this year we are below normal. So in the long list of check offs....early cooler weather is here so that would be a baby signal to start!!
Farmers almanac is calling for a brutal winter. I guess I should get ready to start cleaning up a mass of Acorns
Last year, I had to use a shovel to get all those Acorns up. The squirrels out there just gave up and switched to eating something else. Too many Acorns I guess.
I was in college in Boston during the Blizzard of '78. Shut down the entire eastern half of Mass. Had a solid week off. Hot chick living with me, Ounce of Panama Red, Yeah, I rode that sucker out in high style.. (no pun intended)
The thing I remember about the big blizzard was walking to work down Amsterdam Ave in the street because the sidewalks were completely covered by about 5 feet of snow. I remember passing buses that were moving about 2 MPH in the slush and realizing that they had no passengers on board they were just being staged off the streets so that emergency vehicles didn't have to deal with them. I walked 3+ miles both ways and I saw maybe 25-30 other people walking during that entire time.
oh baby....the ole panama red....brings back the good ole days cman! Yeah..the blizzard of 78 was actually surrounded by another huge blizzard that hit the areas in a two week period. I remember because the school I was attending closed 2 times during that period. It had never closed before that. That was a crazy winter.
Yeah brad..that was an amazing storm..I remember it like it was yesterday. It came in like a bomb. Started on a Sunday I believe around noon and by 2pm we had over 4 inches of snow...by night time there was over a foot. Then the storm did the unthinkable and stalled off the New Jersey coast....and it just sat...and spinned itself to death by Tuesday morning. While around 80 percent of the snow fell during the first 24 hours...the next 24 hours it continued and didnt stop until Tuesday morning. You are correct with those 5 foot numbers....the drifts were incredible. Amazingly, it was not a true blizzard under the correct terminology. I think that is bullshit because the winds were whipping the entire time but in order to be classified as a true blizzard....wind gusts must be maintained over a 3 hour period at at least 35 mph...non stop...which only happened in a city in N.J. which escapes my memory right now. Bullshit...it was a blizzard...and with all the great storms since then, thats how I measure every storm and no storm has come near since.
