So I'm going to go into the 2013 season with an open mind in terms of the Jets prospects. I think the team is clearly in rebuilding mode but I also see glimmers of upside here and there. There are a few things in particular I'm going to be watching for over the course of the next few weeks, the keys to the season for me. 1. Is the defense coherent at the start of the season? This is the biggest factor in terms of where the Jets go this season. The Jets still have some issues at LB. They're replacing their best player in the secondary with a rookie. They're playing a question mark at NT whether it's Snacks or Kenrick Ellis. If the defense is coherent from the get-go and the Jets win a game or two they shouldn't then the chances of an upside season go up. Key players to watch today: Snacks (starting NT today), DeMario Davis (must step up), Dee Milliner (lots of weight on his shoulders). 2. Do the Jets have enough good skill players on offense to really threaten a defense or will teams be stacking the box to shut down the run? This is one of the main areas where the Jets failed last season. None of the WR's were capable of handing tight coverage. Everybody had difficulty getting open. People dropped too many balls and made too many fundamental mistakes for the offense to function well. Key players to watch: Stephen Hill (needs to stretch the field), Jeff Cumberland (has to catch a few balls up the seams), Ryan Spadola (must step up and make a play or two when he is on the field). 3. Is Geno Smith capable of holding up his end if both of the two cases above go in the Jets favor? Forget the fantasies about Geno coming out firing bullets and the Jets being good from the start because of improved QB play. That doesn't happen in the NFL. Rookie QB's take a beating and hopefully learn from it. There's no reason to believe Geno will be any different. If the Jets have a solid defense and the playmakers are good enough then the question will become whether or not Geno can play well enough to put the Jets over the top. Keys to watch: Reads (can he use half the field well or is he locking on his first read?), good decision-making with the ball (throwaways, check downs, throwing to the 1st down marker or beyond on 3rd down), comfort level in the pocket (is he pressing? Does he have his head up under pressure?). This season is going to be fun to watch because we're going to get to see a new philosophy at work on the field, both in Marty Mornhinweg's pass-heavy WCO and in the Jets commitment to real competition for playing time. It could be a lot of fun if two out of the three cases above turn up positive.
I give us about a 30% chance of winning: What I'll be ok with: Losing this game because Geno couldn't generate anything What I wont be ok with: Losing this game because the defense is still getting ground and pounded to death.
One of the interesting things for us today will be our run game. I want to see Bohanon, Ivory, Powell, and our O line do it this facet of our offense. Ivory never got a chance to show much this preseason but I'm hoping he becomes the angry runner he was when healthy in NO. I like Bohanon and think he is a perfect fit for our west coast offense. Still I want to see how he takes on LBs in the regular season. Then I want see Ducasse specifically in the O line. The guy is a monster and has flashes where he blows people up in the run game but with his strength he should do that more consistently. Its time for our 2nd round pick to become an asset for us.
I can boil this down to two things to watch. Can the Jets stop the Buccaneers running game WITHOUT having to put 8 in the box leaving the secondary in man to man coverage. Can the Jets Run the ball forcing the Buccaneers to bring 7 or 8 in to the box to stop the run. With these two teams and the shaky QB situation for both teams the running game will be key, the team that runs the ball be best will win this game. Though if it turns in to a passing match up because neither team can run the ball it favors Tampa, they have the better secondary IMHO. The Jets HAVE to be able to run the ball effectively to have a good shot to win this game. Unfortunately the Buccaneers are VERY good against the run.
I feel like we have already won because I get to watch a regular season game without the worst QB in the league under center. Hopefully this feeling of hope rubs off on the offense and we score at will today. I am excited, fuck this gloom and doom shit!!!!!!!!
The only key in this game are the 2 QB's : Josh Freeman & Geno Smith, that is it. I know for sure that if the Jets had an experienced, solid QB leading the way, the Jets win this game. But this is not the case. You have to watch this game for many many years to realize that teams with a proven QB have better odds to win than teams without one. Smith is totally unproven - and judging by his preseason performance - a bit wet behind the ears. Josh is an implosion waiting to happen - but he does have experience. If Smith is having a poor game , does Rex leave him in? Another key factor.
Control the line of scrimmage both defensively and offensively. No stupid penalties. Get our running game going enough to force them to stack the box. blanket their WR and pressure Freeman with our front four.
The key to this game will be to force Tampa to make mistakes. Play a safe game and watch Tampa beat itself.
Quite frankly that is the opposite of the philosophy of the WCO. The question really is, can the Jets with Geno PASS well enough to force more in coverage and open up the run game. Your thought is correct for the Schottenheimer and Sparano offenses but completely wrong for the WCO. You do not establish the run to pass, you pass to establish the run. I expect to see a ton of pistol and shotgun and lots of passing. It is what MM is.
They replaced their best player on defense a year ago and it wasn't with a rookie, it was with fuckin Kyle Wilson..I'll take the rookie any day.
The key to this game is: 1. Can we stop and contain Doug martin It begins and mostly ends here. He is the type of back that has given us fits in the past. If we can contain him then we should be able to shut down Freeman. If we do that then we do not need Geno to do a lot except what we have asked of Sanchez and that is not lose the game for us. If we cannot contain Martin it could be a long game and it will force our offense to match Tampa bay which could end up in forcing Smith into mistakes and that could end in a rout. I am very nervous about containing Martin. His ability to reach the perimeter and stretch our defense and his big play threat are the kind of attributes that has torched our defense in the past. All the focus on this game has been on Geno but I think Doug Martin is the key. This game is not about Geno. Martin really scares me quite a bit. This is a very winnable game and it is such a huge game in terms of the rest of the season. Hopefully we will all be happy 5 hours from now.
Snacks is starting over Richardson and Ellis? That's odd. I figured those 2 would be the lock to start up front with Mo Wilks and snacks would back them up. Agreed about Doug Martin. Stopping him will be key.
Ellis hasn't been able to play in the pre-season while Snacks has. They'll be rotating plenty (assuming Ellis' back holds up). As for Richardson, they play different positions
Good call on this one. The Jets run defense was exceptional today and that caused the Bucs offense to be overly dependent on shots up the seams to Jackson. That will never kill you if it's the only thing that's working.
I'm very excited about the run defense this year - let's not forget that this was a Pro Bowler who was pretty much shut down the entire game, except for a few critical plays at the end of the game (that thankfully weren't enough.) He almost broke away for a TD if not for (I think) Davis making a diving tackle. But overall, this bodes very well for the run defense. Hopefully Mangold's elbow is okay. I know he went back in the game, but he had a look of agony on his face when he got hit and I hope he wasn't playing with something broken and that he'll be healthy for Thursday. Winslow was great, and Smith does show promise despite making some rookie mistakes. That said, he will have to be better, because Freeman is an awful QB and we had a bunch of luck helping us out. Now if only Buffalo could've held on and beaten the Patriots, it would've been perfect! But I'm just happy to see the Jets start off the season the right way- one step closer to a good season record!
