Aaron Hernandez Football Implications

Lining Hernandez up at tailback was always something that was talked about more than it was actually done. Nearly all of his snaps came while lined up at TE or WR.

I'm not saying it is a slight drop-off. I am just taking into consideration that Brady doesn't need top talent at every position to thrive. Having two of the best TEs in the league was a luxury. Hernandez's versatility was a luxury. Brady has survived without these things before, and he is capable of doing it again. If having "just" the best TE in the league and another above-average one is our biggest concern (which I argued it isn't), then we are very well off. Ballard is a solid player even though he isn't Hernandez, so it is fair to talk about his as being such.

 

I agree with you that the Pats are going to be just fine on O minus Hernandez but it is definitely a bigger blow than it would have been the last couple of years since welker is gone too. You guys could have ran a 2 TE set with Gronk(if healthy) and Ballard and then split Hernandez out at WR to make up for the lack of talent at WR.

I expect the Pats to lose a couple winnable games at the beginning of the season while they figure out the new O but I think Brady and company will have things sorted out by season's end, and by the time we play you guys, unfortunately

 

Losing Hernandez along with Welker, and the questionable Gronk status definitely has an impact.

The big key will be the health of Gronk, Ballard, and Amendola. If they are all healthy, i think they'll be fine.
I also think they are crazy if they don't re-sign Lloyd, or another WR tho as insurance.

Belichick is not married to a 2 TE set, and has plenty of time to prepare for TE's not being available.
The team will be well prepared as always.

Also no other team in the AFCE is ready to challenge for the division, so the timing is not terrible for the Pats. They still win the division, but with less wins than recent years, shrinking the competitive gap.

 

If Hernandez is out, I see the Pats still cruising to an AFC title, but maybe not getting a bye for the playoffs. They will have to play WC weekend, and they will run into a struggle against the better defenses in the playoffs. Gronk being healthy will be key for them in the playoffs.

Bill and Brady will adjust and get through the AFC East just fine, the playoffs are where I think they will need to be able to rely on their D and run game more than they have in the past several years

 

if hernandez is out, and gronk misses considerable time for injury, the pats are definitely going to be hurting

those types of players are safety nets along with commanding attention from defenses. without those elements, the pats have little to worry about, ridley and amendola maybe, but amendolas an injury risk as well. i like our chances to sweep the pats, especially if we can get after the qb. i just dont think the pats will have that guy for brady to bail out to when hes running from our blitz.

fan optimism aside, i think a lot of teams are thinking the same thing. everybody was talking so much about how beli changed the league again with his tight end emphasis, but without guys like gronk and herandez, its going to be difficult to get that kind of production from the position again. of course they will adapt, and probably do so pretty well, but i really think a lot of the pats offensive success the past few seasons has been because they had guys like welker, gronk and hernandez. i mean come on thats a pretty good group of receivers right there, its hard to be bad if youre throwing to those guys on a regular basis is all im saying. with gronks health in the air, and hernandez likely going to prison, the pats need some talent on offense

 

I think you nailed it, Gronk's health along with Amendola are the real factors here. I still think Brady is good enough and smart enough to lead them to at least 10 wins. The Chicken understands the game enough to make the adjustments he needs to. Now if this happened in say September it would be a whole different situation but I think that it isn't even July gives him enough time to develop a new game plan however I don't see them being as explosive just more of a possession style team especially if Gronk is hurt. If they do that though they'll need the running backs to step up quite a bit.

 

I think losing Welker is going to be a huge impact. just my opinion.

 

If Gronk is hurt for any significant amount of time, I think the team's explosiveness can still come from a number of other areas. Our rookie WRs Dobson and Boyce are both potentially players who can give us explosive plays down the field and on the outside. Vereen has great pass-catching ability for a RB, and has the potential to be a Sproles-like threat in both the running and passing games. Leon Washington is another player who could surprise everyone and become an explosive threat on our offense, in addition to his return game contributions.

Also remember that Amendola is a more explosive player than Welker was, although his health is just as much a question as Gronk's.

 

I don't see anything to lead me to believe Amednola will be healthy. That being said i also don't see the loss of the production Welker gave you being that huge of a loss though as Edelmen has shown in the past he can fill that void. I think the health of Gronk is a worry though as Ballard isn't going to step in and replace Hernandez. The fact that the Pats signed Washington gives me nightmares, he's much better than Woodhead and you know he'll bring it against the Jets, years later and the way tannenbum handled that is still haunting us, as if the wasted draft pick on John Connor wasn't enough.

 

I might get scoffed at for saying this, since I'm a Pats fan, but Amendola's injury history actually isn't as bad as it looks. 20 games missed over 4 years in the NFL, 15 of which were caused by a single injury in the 2012 season opener. For comparisons sake, Darrelle Revis has missed just 3 less over that span of time. It isn't at all unbelievable to think that he will play 11+ games and be healthy going into the playoffs. In fact, he has already accomplished those things in 3 out of his 4 years playing.

Ballard is actually a better replacement for Gronk than he is for Hernandez. If we end up losing both of our top TEs, we will just end up running a more vanilla offense with Ballard as the lone TE. As you said, our slot WR position will be fine one way or another. We have multiple running backs who can contribute to the short passing game. The outside receiver(s) are really where the big question mark is IMO.

 

One of these years the Pats are going to get out to a 2-3 start that becomes 3-5 and then 5-7 and then we'll know the Brady Bunch is toast. Given everything that has piled up on them this year, with all of Brady's weapons from last year going away or degrading some, this could easily be the year.

 

I don't see that happening with Bill/Brady together. Maybe when one of them leaves, I see the other struggling and then them finally dropping.

 

That option too of them both leaving. So yeah once one of them, including both of them at the same time, leave, I see them falling off. Although Bill with Matt Cassell, I hope that was just an outlier. Cassel has struggled recently, but the year with NE and then the 2010 year with KC are good to great years for a QB.

 

You never know. The Colts just went from Peyton Manning to Andrew Luck. While the book is certainly still open on Luck, it looks good so far.

I do think right now it's Dolphins, Jets, Bills in order of who is most likely to take advantage of a Pats slide down or off year.

Yeah, lot of IFs for the Jets though. That QB position is the key. We need someone to step up, it could be Jeremy Kerley for all I care.

 

Obviously the Patriots counted on having Hernandez, but it's not like anything with Gronkowski's health is a surprise at this point. They also let Welker walk away so that's not catching anyone off-guard.

Point being, from a football standpoint, losing Hernandez definitely hurts them, but it's the only thing that's happened that wasn't either already known or part of some kind of plan.

Brady had terrible receivers in the '06 season. Even with what they have left for this coming year, they're still better (on paper at least) than that squad.

 

That could happen now if Brady goes down again. Last time they had a much better team around him..not now.