Geno not ready...

I think there are some deep-rooted issues here cause this feeling:

1) Draft Position: If you get someone with a top 10 pick, you automatically assume this guy is a superstar, there is immediate hope for impact. No matter how rational you think the fan-base is, you assume this. If you ask anyone, if Dee Millner is going to be a very good CB from the onset, I'd think the answer is yes. It happens elsewhere in life as well. You pay $1500 for a laptop, you will most likely feel like the features are better than the one that is selling for $1000, even if anything that is relevant to you is exactly the same. Ditto with cars, house, anything. The acquisition price dictates the acquired quality, as far as people's perception goes. So with a second round pick, doubt creeps into your mind. Why did he get passed on? Why did other teams pass on him (I think I talked about this in the all Geno thread, as to why it was almost a perfect storm of events as to why he fell)? If Geno was picked with our 9th pick, I think half the people that want him to sit and learn would think otherwise.

By falling to the second, he also played into being thought of as a project. Since most years, QBs that are highly ranked usually go high, the ones that fall into the second and third rounds are projects or have some pretty good question marks about them. Be it size with Wilson, system with Kapernick, or just passing ability with Pat White, there are bound to be questions. So even if Smith wasn't supposed to fall, the fact that he did, causes us to examine his weaknesses closer than we normally would, because now we're looking for reasons to explain his fall. Our vision is narrowed as to explain the unexplainable.

Past Experience: When Sanchez first was drafted, the fanbase couldn't wait to let him start. There was no competition to speak of, and we threw him into the fire. For various reasons, that blew back in our faces the last two years. So it's natural for people to be gunshy.

Weapons: We don't have top notch weapons right now to surround the QB. So people are concerned that the QB might not develop properly because the lack of talent surrounding him may cause his development to stagnate.

System: The Air-Raid system hasn't exactly produced that many studs at QB, so people can be apprehensive about that as well.

When you combine all these factors, I think it's somewhat understandable as to why people are afraid to let him start. However, I'm of the feeling that I'd start him if he can beat Sanchez out in the pre-season. He has 3 years of very good experience starting for a high octane offense, and is a good pocket passer. His skills fit very well into the system that we are installing. And on the O-line, he might as well get adjusted to them, and grow with them. Geno is more mobile in the pocket and outside of the pocket than Sanchez, so I'd rather the O-line learn to protect Geno from the start than deal with two QBs. Even if Holmes is out, I'd like Geno to develop some chemistry with Kerley, Hill, Cumblerland, and whatever UDFA makes the team as a WR. Yeah, it may not work out that great this year and there will be growing pains, but I think we'll be better of for next year.

 

I don't fully buy the weapons argument, QB's make the weapons. Look at Seattle, Washington and especially the Colts over the past two seasons.
In 2011 the Colts were the #30 offense, in 2012 #10.
In 2011 the Seattle went form #28 to #17 offense.
in Washington they move from #16 to #5 offense.

The major difference in each case, especially the Colts, was a QB.

QB's make recievers stars, very rare is the reciever that makes a QB a star.

 

Sanchez hasn't progressed as we had all hoped not because he started right away or did not have to compete for his job, he hasn't progressed as we had hoped because he isn't very good.

if Sanchez doesn't inherently have the attitude and personality that he wants to be the best, there is nothing to indicate that had he been pushed he would have developed it. great players are driven from within from their own personal goals.

beyond that, from all reports Sanchez has always been a hard worker, so there is nothing to justify that his lack of development is due to simply being handed the starting job and he did not give his all because of it.

and there is nothing to indicate that Gino Smith isn't driven by his own desire to succeed and needs to have to sit so the same thing that happened to Sanchez, which is completely fabricated fan insecurity looking for an excuse or someone to blame other than the lack of ability, doesn't happen to Smith.

great QB's don't need to sit. if Gino Smith can't beat out Sanchez for the starting gig than he likely isn't the long term answer anyways, so no need to worry about him at all.

 

Absolutely agree. For every Sanchez/Joey Harrington/Tim Couch who got thrown into the fire as a rookie and failed, you can sight a Troy Aikman/John Elway/RGIII/Peyton Manning who found success either immediately or after some period of growing pains. The ultimate outcome has almost everything to do with the individual (and the coaching/support he is given) and very little to do with the decision to start as a rookie or not.

I don't know whether Smith is ready to start or not - I'll leave it up to the coaching staff to decide. What I don't understand is the chorus of "We're giving up on the season if we start Smith!" Did anyone actually watch Sanchez play last year? I started going to Jets games in the late 1970s and have followed the NFL pretty closely for the past 30+ years and Sanchez's 2013 performance was one of the worst examples of quarterbacking I've ever witnessed. Even as a mistake-prone rookie, how much worse could Smith possibly be?

I usually tend toward the dark-side, but I think the momentum has gone a little too heavily in that direction this year. This team was 6-10 last year with significant injury issues. The defense will be upgraded - the only real loss we saw was Landry as Revis missed the bulk of the season, the linebackers will be significantly improved and the D Line will be much better. I'm legitimately excited to see a Rex coached defense with some athletes who can get after the QB (Coples, Wilkerson, Richardson, Barnes). If the offense can improve even slightly from a very low baseline, things will look much brighter. I don't think this is a playoff team, but the talk of 3 wins is just ridiculous.

 

The jets were a deceptive 6-10 last year. There were 1 or 2 games you can argue they should have won but lost, but there are 3-4 games you can argue, 2 of them especially so, that they absolutely should have lost.

But the record last year was the record last year. This year the schedule makers did the Jets no favors. Last year there were, even in hindsight, say there were 4-5 teams the Jets were clearly better than on their schedule. This year if you look at the schedule there are only 2 teams you can say the Jets are clearly better than, and 3-4 teams that the jets are about even with, give or take abit. The rest of the games/teams the Jets are clearly underdogs against.

If teams play as their expected to on paper, and most teams don't peform as they do on paper they'll either exceed or fall short of expectations, but if things play on average as they do on paper the Jets are a 4-6 win team this year in my opinion.

Now if the QB play really steps up this season that picture changes, but regardless of who starts at QB I don't expect a good start. Sanchez is Sanchez and Geno may take awhile to get his feet on the ground.

 

That's exactly my point. IMO I think our receiving corp is alright if we can sign a vet (Braylon). Holmes and Kerley are two shifty underneath type receivers. Similar to what he was throwing to in college, then Hill and the vet (Braylon) can be the two deep threats. With an improved running game we might actually have an NFL caliber offense for the first time since 2008.

 

Well reasoned and understood, but Vegas has the over/under at 7 with people putting real money on either side of that line and I tend to agree.

Back of the envelope, I figure the schedule this year as:

Date Opponent Win Prob
1 Sun, Sep 8 vs Tampa Bay 50%
2 Thu, Sep 12 @ New England 20%
3 Sun, Sep 22 vs Buffalo 60%
4 Sun, Sep 29 @ Tennessee 40%
5 Mon, Oct 7 @ Atlanta 20%
6 Sun, Oct 13 vs Pittsburgh 40%
7 Sun, Oct 20 vs New England 40%
8 Sun, Oct 27 @ Cincinnati 40%
9 Sun, Nov 3 vs New Orleans 40%
11 Sun, Nov 17 @ Buffalo 40%
12 Sun, Nov 24 @ Baltimore 20%
13 Sun, Dec 1 vs Miami 60%
14 Sun, Dec 8 vs Oakland 70%
15 Sun, Dec 15 @ Carolina 50%
16 Sun, Dec 22 vs Cleveland 70%
17 Sun, Dec 29 @ Miami 40%

Projected Wins 7.0

 

Ive been making the first two points since the draft.

3 becomes moot, if the Jets are winning.

 

The real o er under should be 9.


6 wins, with shit on ofdense, and an aging slow front 7. New OC, youth,speed,and health..,barring catastrophic injury toSanchez..,the O/U should be9

 

They haven't practiced yet, of course he's not ready..bury this thread until August if he's still not ready then. Oh and here's a news flash..neither is Sanchez with this offense..now what?

 

all of this stuff will be sorted out in camp. If he shows he is ready I think they will start him even if Mark outplays him, I think Mark needs to badly outplay him and for Geno to show that he isn't quite ready to start for Mark to win the job. Geno is the future in all likelihood so they will want to get him on the field as soon as possible. I holed out hope for a Brees-Rivers situation though Brees probably never gets the chance to start for SD in 2004 if Rivers doesn't have a holdout. Geno isn't going to hold out.

 

Vegas sets their odds at points they feel they'll get roughly an equal number of over and unders. I'm more concerned where the team will wind up. I think 7 is optimistic, 6 more in line. If QB play is like it's been the past 4 years Jet Jets are looking at 4-6 wins, if QB play steps up and exceeds the last 4 years 7-9 wins isn't unreasonable.

There are just too many question marks on the Jets to seriously consider them a 7 win team this year.

Questionable QB situation, one career under performer and a talented but unproven rookie. The 3/5ths of the O-line is a big questionmark. The Running back situation should be okay IF the O-line plays decently AND the RB's stay healthy.
The Tight ends are a very questionable group.
The WR's have talent with huge upside, but are largely unproven and with a Questionable QB situation how well they perform is strictly on how accurate the QB is.

On defense the D-Line should be exceptional.
The LB corp is a questionmark overall.
The CB staff should be solid
The Safeties on the other hand are a huge question mark.

In short the team really only has 3 strong postions, DL, CB, RB. The rest are all big questionmarks. If they all step up yeah they could be good, but if your going in to a season with that Many questionmarks anything above 6 games is an optimistic projection.

 

I honestly hope Sanchez starts the first 9 games (before the week #10 bye). That way either Sanchez succeeds or Smith will see what a NY media shit-storm is all about.

 

lol What? Our o-line has improved. The RBs should do well (Not great, but well). TEs are laughable, I'll give you that. WRs have a lot more upside this year. And our defense will be dominant as per usual.

Our schedule is also relatively weak this year. Buffalo will suck like usual. Miami, despite signed a couple big names, really isn't a good team either. Tennessee isn't good. Pittsburgh is mediocre right now. Baltimore lost a bunch of their best players last year. Cleveland sucks. Carolina is mediocre.

The only super tough games will be NE (Who got weaker over the off-season) and Atlanta. New Orleans is good but just not nearly as good as they were a few seasons ago. Cinci looks like they have a good team, but that division isn't impressive right now.

 

@Baltimore is probably not a cake walk.

 

If we can score some points against NO and NE we have a chance in those games, albeit a small one. If our new D continues to whiff on covering their superior TEs we will not be able to score enough to win. Another big factor is if the O and ST can stop giving up points to the other team. Those things are possible but there are a lot of unknowns still (new offense, new ST coach, Sanchez, etc).

 

This is true but it's also a bit deceptive. The Jets did win two games last year against Miami and Arizona that teams don't usually win. They also lost a game against Tennessee that was in the same category. They got bad breaks against New England and Houston that turned potential upset wins into losses.

My takeaway from the year was that the days of 4-12 wipeouts are pretty much over at this point. The Jets lost their best players on offense and defense last year and still did not collapse totally. It would probably take a horrific injury run at this point to deep-six the Jets.

And I do think that if you had even an average QB on the Jets last year they probably win 8 games or better without breaking a sweat.

 

Any serious college fan would never ever have compared Geno to Russell Wilson. It's laughable. Who is your college team? Do you follow recruiting?

 

crap, look back at the great qbs tell me which one did not have a star receiver or rb?

The jump in Seattle and Washington had a lot to do with a pretty good running game.