Since this is more or less about all of the QBs in the draft, figured it didn't need to get buried in the Geno thread. From Bleacher Report (Btw, did they merge with some major media company? They were crap like a year ago, I remember not even bothering to click on links to their site, because their writing was some of the worst out there. But nowadays, they seem to have a lot of coverage, their app is very useful, and even saw like a TV ad for them, lol). http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...arterbacks-to-free-fall-in-the-2013-nfl-draft Anyway, deals with why the QB's fell in this draft, which is something similar to what I mentioned in the Geno thread in the last two days I believe. It was a case, where the teams that had inept QBs were tied to first round picks in the last two years, and thus reluctant to give up on those guys. Also about natural supply and demand as well. How last year's QB run, filled a lot of teams with QBs (some promising, some not so much) that the demand just wasn't there. Also, the teams that could have picked say Geno Smith or EJ Manuel may have overplayed their hand. Let's examine the teams that had a shot at picking a QB in this draft as a matter of need, rather than luxury. The Kansas City Chiefs: They made the trade for Alex Smith, while Geno Smith was almost certain to be picked in the top ten of the draft. At that time, there were rumors that Nassib might be gone in there as well. They probably didn't rate Geno as the No. 1 player in this year's draft, and saw value in waiting. They traded their second for Alex Smith. Now that's a team that does have some holes, so it's not wise for them to now waste their first two picks on a QB in this draft. They passed. They only had one pick (The No. 1 overall) before Geno was off the board. The Jacksonville Jaguars: This is one of the teams mentioned in the article, about how they are just 2 years into a first round QB. It's admitting a colossal mistake to give up on a top 10 pick after two years. They are also admitting to the fact that the team he has taken over is devoid of talent, hence why they have drafted a WR and an OL with top ten picks the next two years. I mean, Sanchez in year 4, and we have people getting a heart attack as soon as you mention that it might be time to move on. This is most likely the make or break year for them. They picked twice before Geno was off the board. Philadelphia Eagles: One of the most rumored places for Geno Smith or EJ Manuel to go. However, they already have a QB that they are paying dearly for in Vick. A 3rd round pick in Foles as well. And they acquired Taylor from Baltimore too I believe because he was a stud at Oregon. Adding a first round QB there just might not have been worth the money. They needed help on the offensive line big time, because last year they were really hurting to protect Vick. And adding the TE helps as well to protect the QB. They obviously think Vick will thrive, otherwise they wouldn't have brought him back at the salary that he is making. Barkley makes perfect sense as a backup QB. It's the same idea as the Ryan Mallet pick by the Pats in the past. They picked twice, but again, understandable why they passed on QBs in the first three rounds. Cleavland Browns: Invested first round pick in a QB last year, and lost their 2nd round pick to find a WR for that said QB. Weeden had an up and down year. There were a couple of games where he looked very good, some duds. But pretty much anyone of significance on their offense was a rookie or second year player last year, so it makes perfect sense for them to wait one more year atleast and see if things gel. They picked once before any QB was gone. Arizona Cardinals: This is the one team that had a legitimate need for a QB and the one that most blatantly passed on a QB. They traded for Palmer, and gave him what is essentially a 2 year 16 million contract, with an opt out clause after year 1. However, this could also be their thinking that, they need OL help as much as any team in the league. Last year, their QBs were getting killed and it wouldn't matter who they picked, if they couldn't protect them. So they most likely saw Palmer as a stopgap until they can fix the OL problems, and then try to get a QB. They only picked once before Geno was gone, and they addressed OL with that pick. Remember, they also made that trade when these QBs were projected to go in the top ten, so they already showed their hand by the time the draft rolled around. Oakland Raiders: They traded for Matt Flynn, with his money involved, they were heavily invested in at the QB position as well. Also having Pryor there as a backup QB that seemed atleast passable last year influences them to wait. Another team that had major holes elsewhere, so it wasn't wise for them to invest that much money into Flynn, and then invest money into a first round QB. They also made the Flynn deal when the QBs were supposed to go in the top 10. Buffalo Bills: The one team that picked a QB, when in need of a QB, and passed on Geno. A pure projection pick, and to be honest, these two guys are pretty close together. I remember liking Manuel as a possible second round pick or third round pick early in the draft process, but he obviously moved up. His physical talent is better than Geno, IMO. It's really the mental aspect that is a problem. I watched a bunch of tapes of him back when I thought we might take a shot on him, and he never stood out as an elite guy on the field. His team was superior than most of the teams they faced in terms of talent, but he never looked like he was setting the scoreboard on fire or was unstoppable. It also didn't help that people covering FSU think he was incredibly limited on the field as to what he could run, and that they really simplified it out there for him. They also mentioned that, he stopped running the read option after injuring his shoulder, and that his effectiveness decreased exponentially after the injury in regards to the read option. But the guy has the highest potential in the draft, so I can't blame them for picking him. He just has a high bust potential as well, IMO. Also, the Bills traded for Kolb, and I don't think they pick a QB if they stayed at 8. I think they address other needs at 8, but once all the QBs made it to them, they knew they would get a shot at Manuel or Geno at 16, and getting the second to address that need pushed it over the edge. I read that they were afraid to trade back from 16 because of the fear that some other team might trade back into the late first and pick off the QB, a sign that they feared other teams valued these QBs somewhat high as well. In retrospect, they could've waited. But still a good pick for them, IMO. Have to get an elite QB to compete, so might as well take the shot with Manuel. So this wasn't like, teams were avoiding these guys like the plague. A good number of them had their arms tied because of first round picks in the last two years. Or, they overplayed their hands when these QBs were projected to be top ten, and invested either a high pick or a good amount of money into veteran guys. It makes sense for them to then not pick a QB high, because otherwise it looks like an idiotic move to sign or trade for someone to be your starter and then pick a QB high. And it payed off for the teams that waited it out like the Bills and Jets for a change.
Also it should be noted that the top talent in the draft was going to fly off the board early in the 1st, Joeckel, Fisher, Johnson, Jordan, etc... Kansas City is in win now mode with the addition of Alex Smith and they have a shot to challenge for a WC Jacksonville has Gabbert who isn't terrible just needs proper coaching, ask Alex Smith Philly had 2 QB's already Oakland should be good with Flynn who their GM is familiar with Cleveland just drafted a QB Buffalo was going to pick one we knew that every other team was already tied up with a QB so went another direction which is understandable I cant wait to see Geno develop under Idzik and MM
Root cause is simple. No one was that caliber or luck, tanny, and my boy bob Griff. Never reach for anyone otherwise you will be like the raiders and cowgirls. And look at where they r? Cap hell and an average roster.... Stay the corse and let the draft come to u.
So you believe that Jim Harbaugh can make any QB into Alex Smith 2012. You gotta give Alex Smith some credit.
I wish we had been able to get a veteran QB like Alex Smith... If I were GM, that's what I would have done (if the salary cap allowed me to, doesn't seem like it was possible for Idzik and the Jets). Even Palmer would have been okay. Instead of trading for a veteran QB who would allow us to compete right away, we (most likely) squandered a pick on Geno Smith... we'll see how that works out. But the chances of him becoming better than Alex Smith are slim. Based on where Geno was rated, you can't blame the Jets for not trading down, especially if they were trying to trade up to get him. But I think the Chiefs did well to get Alex Smith, meanwhile, we will be relying on another inexperienced QB.
Gabbert is fucking garbage bro. He has no positives to his game. You can't coach someone whose a pussy in the pocket. He's worse than Sanchez.
Just another Jet fan who's only worried about next season. Think about the future buddy. Don't count Geno out when he hasn't even put the damn pads on.
This. I'd far prefer Geno then Smith given the current state of the franchise. If we were one efficient qb away Id say differently.
Alex Smith is turn 29 next month... it is not just thinking about next season. Alex Smith has 5-6 good seasons ahead of him, and he is a veteran polished in his craft. Having Geno is a lot riskier, and we risk wasting a lot of good defensive play due to the QB situation. These are Coples and Wilk's best years coming up.
Ask yourself why a team primed for a Super Bowl appearance made the decision to switch from Alex Smith to Colin Kaepernick. If Alex Smith had what it takes to win a Super Bowl Harbaugh wouldn't have replaced him after a concussion. He'd have found a way to get him back in there and maintain Kaepernick as a change of pace, at least until the end of 2012.
Alex Smith has confidence issues. He needs to be coddled and whispered to sleep. He outright lost his job in San Fran. Alex Smith is weak.
So your hypothesis is that all the teams with dire QB needs either decided to stay with garbage like Blaine Gabbert, or went out and traded high draft picks for old, broke, or mediocre QBs rather than take a chance on Manuel, Smith, Nassib etc... ? The demand was there, but simply most teams felt none of these guys were worthy of a first round pick or would amount to a franchise QB so they filled the void another way. It doesn't speak highly of this draft class. BUT I heard the same stuff with Matt Ryan and his class. And that produced Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Matt Flynn (jury still out on this guy, but he learned the league under the best, may be legit).
Every team that passed on the QB's had a good reason to do so that was independent of the QB pool's talent levels. The only decisions that I really thought were iffy were in Oakland and Buffalo. Oakland mitigated their decision to trade for Matt Flynn by taking Tyler Wilson in the 4th. Buffalo mitigated their decision to trade for Kevin Kolb by taking E.J. Manuel on the 16. I'm glad everybody made the decisions they did because I think those decisions are the only reason that Geno Smith slid down to the Jets as late as he did. Usually if a QB slides past the first few picks of the 2nd round his chances to be successful are probably exaggerated somewhat because so many QB needy teams passed on him twice and so many good teams passed once also. This year was a bit different because all of the teams in front of the 39 pick who were QB needy had resolved their needs before they got a second shot at Geno Smith. I think that gives the Jets a better chance at a positive outcome here. Looking team-by-team: Chiefs - were they going to take a shot on Geno Smith in the early 2nd? Not absent the 2nd round pick they traded for Alex Smith. Jaguars - were they going to take a shot on Geno Smith in the early 2nd? As pointed out by many that would have prematurely terminated their investment n Blaine Gabbert two years ago. They are a favorite to be in the top 5 next year anyway and that will be a shot at a QB if Gabbert fails out. Titans - 1st round investment in Jake Locker 2 years ago. No room. Eagles - had a starting QB in Michael Vick, had a drafted backup in Nick Foles. No room at the inn there, at least not this year. Lions - Matthew Stafford, no room. Bengals - Andy Dalton, no room. Chargers - Philip Rivers, no room.
Kaepernick has the look of a champion, but there is no telling it was the right decision to replace Smith. Maybe the Niners could have gone all the way with Smith, who knows? But moreover, Alex Smith doesn't have to be better than Kaepernick to play for the Jets. He is a major upgrade from Sanchez and would have likely been way better than Geno will be.
The Eagles took Nassib later on, and believe me, if these teams projected Geno to be a star, he would have been taken earlier. That doesn't mean it can't happen, though. But the fact that the area scout from Geno's terrain just got fired is concerning... maybe Idzik already is worried about the pick - the press sure is. But it is only a second rounder and if they hit on Milliner and Richardson it will still be a successful draft even if Geno fails. Would especially like the offensive linemen to succeed as well.
I think the Alex Smith trade was terrible for the Chiefs. He had/has the same concerns that Smith had coming out of college (system QB in a high octane offense) without nearly the same amount of talent. His only calling card will be experience. But we're a team that is further than a reasonable Alex Smith performance away from the playoffs. Then have to factor in the money that would be involved, and that he is under less years of team control. He signed a 3 year deal I believe for 33 million. So we'd be paying him what I assume is 11 million this year, on top of the money that Sanchez is making, which would force us to shell out over 20 million for two mediocre to below average QBs. And by the time we will be good enough to really compete, Smith's contract expires, and we have to sign him to a market rate at best. As I mentioned in the post, I think the Chiefs made that trade clearly when they thought Geno and quite possibly Manuel weren't going to be available for that second round pick, so they made their bed with Alex Smith. But once Geno and others started to drop, they were already in too deep to go back on it. It's complicated though. A bunch of trades went down within a week of each other that filled a lot of the QB positions. At the time, Geno was projected to go top 10 for certain by pretty much everyone. Gabbert is garbage, but it's going to set a team back immensely if they cut a top ten QB pick, 2 years after drafting him. They obviously felt that, they can try and upgrade around him, and give him one more shot. I believe the new GM there was also 100% behind Gabbert once he got there, because I believe he said they believe in Gabbert when there were Tebow rumors, so maybe he didn't want to go back on his word. The class is definitely weak, but it's not historically weak as people would have you believe. The linked article mentions that, there were a ton of teams that got new QBs in the last two years that were pretty highly ranked, so there were much less openings to go around. Eagles took Barkley, but the point still stands. It's just that, taking someone in the 4th is a lot less risk than taking someone in the second. The second is almost an instant QB controversy unless you have a stud QB in place. By the 4th, even if the guy turns out to be a backup QB, you aren't really losing as much value as people would assume. That seemed like a risk/reward pick, where they could stash the guy and hope teams are looking for QBs in the next two seasons. Look at the teams that picked up some of these QBs. TB picked Glennon in the third, so he can be purely a backup for atleast one year in a make or break year for Freeman. If Freeman improves, Glennon is nothing but trade bait for future year's because he might look good in pre-season. Eagles mentioned already. Giants with Nassib. Dysert with the Broncos. All these teams could've used their picks elsewhere because they already had good to great starters in place at QB, but they saw the value of these guys dropping enough that they know they can either get a good backup for cheap or have them be possibly traded next year for a better pick. Just look at Ryan Mallet. Dropped like a rock, Pats pick him, does nothing but hold a clipboard, and the Pats were looking to get a second for him this year.
Alex Smith is a very solid QB and it would be the best choice for Jets. People give him less credit than he deserves, the season before this last one 49ers didn't make the SB due to that huge miserable shit that that punt returner did. Look what Smith did against Saints, that was one of the best playoff games of all times. This last season they had great chances to make SB even without the switch, the fact is that the opportunity was there and Harbaugh knew that was the right time for that shot. It reminded me Bledsoe/Brady switch. This is a big business, not charity. Sad for Smith, but Kaepernick is that kind of player that is out of statistics, his development, his skills are top level with just so little time on professional football. He was just the better choice, that doesn't make Smith a garbage all of a sudden. And all this talk about future, future, future, a rookie contract is 4 years, you don't know what will be the scenario there, it could be a total failure, and then? Start from scratch again? it's too much time buddy. All this talk about building a winning franchise all over draft, if you don't start to win games sometime there's no such thing as winning franchise, otherwise Browns should be in their Dinasty time by now... you gotta start to win games sometime, via draft or via trade, then you build around, you have value on the draft in any position, you don't need to be at the top every draft to rebuild. Look the job Steelers, Patriots, Giants, Packers do at the draft, but they are already winning franchises. You need to win and you need a decent core, and I believe Alex Smith would give Jets the best chances to do that, maybe not to win now (but at least 6/7 victories is very reasonable, and it's a better scenario than the current) but in next season, who knows? Just my 2 cents, Jets should have done whatever it takes to get a deal with Smith.
