Here are the last 10 years of Quarterbacks drafted in the first round. I wanted to take a look back to see what kind of success rate teams have drafting QBs in the first round. I started judging QB's a success from 2010 back. I have them listed as Successful QBs/QB's Taken. The overall success rate of drafting a QB in the first round appears to be 40%. 2008 and 2004 were the only two years of the 8 I measured that had more than one successful QB in the draft. I measured success using a few factors: Did the QB stay with the team that drafted them (ie, were they good enough to be resigned). How are their completion percentages, turnover ratios, etc. Obviously this is subjective (One could argue that Palmer wasn't a successful pick , but I listed him as one). 2012 - 4 #1: Andrew Luck (Stanford), Indianapolis Colts #2: Robert Griffin III (Baylor), Washington Redskins #8: Ryan Tannehill (Texas A&M), Miami Dolphins #22: Brandon Weeden (Oklahoma State), 2011 - 4 #1: Cam Newton (Auburn), Carolina Panthers #8: Jake Locker (Washington), Tennessee Titans #10: Blaine Gabbert (Missouri), Jacksonville Jaguars #12: Christian Ponder (Florida State), Minnesota Vikings 2010 - 1/2 #1: Sam Bradford (Oklahoma), St. Louis Rams #25: Tim Tebow (Florida), Denver Broncos 2009 - 1/3 #1: Matthew Stafford (Georgia), Detroit Lions #5: Mark Sanchez (USC), New York Jets #17: Josh Freeman (Kansas State), Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2008 - 2/2 #3: Matt Ryan (Boston College), Atlanta Falcons #18: Joe Flacco (Delaware), Baltimore Ravens 2007 –0/2 Rd # Player College Team 1 1 JaMarcus Russell Louisiana State Oakland Raiders 1 22 Brady Quinn Notre Dame Cleveland Browns 2006 –1/3 Rd # Player College Team 1 3 Vince Young Texas Tennessee Titans 1 10 Matt Leinart USC Arizona Cardinals 1 11 Jay Cutler Vanderbilt Denver Broncos 2005 –1/3 Rd # 1 1 Alex Smith Utah San Francisco 49ers 1 24 Aaron Rodgers California Green Bay Packers 1 25 Jason Campbell Auburn Washington Redskins 2004 – 3/4 1 1 Eli Manning Mississippi San Diego Chargers 1 4 Philip Rivers North Carolina State New York Giants 1 11 Ben Roethlisberger Miami (Ohio) Pittsburgh Steelers 1 22 J.P. Losman Tulane Buffalo Bills 2003 – 1/3 1 1 Carson Palmer USC Cincinnati Bengals 1 7 Byron Leftwich Marshall Jacksonville Jaguars 1 19 Kyle Boller California Baltimore Ravens 1 22 Rex Grossman Florida Chicago Bears 2002 – 0/3 1 1 David Carr Fresno State Houston Texans 1 3 Joey Harrington Oregon Detroit Lions 1 32 Patrick Ramsey Tulane Washington Redskins
Yep. Crapshoot on QB's in the 1st round, except when they were seen as clearly excellent prospects with little chance of failure (David Carr, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Andrew Luck). Carr failed because the Texans flailed around a lot in their expansion era. One interesting historical fact that gets lost is that Ben Roethlisberger was seen as the #2 QB in the 2004 draft. Philip Rivers hovered in the late teens and early twenties for most of the pre-draft period.
geezus there are some scary names on that list...... very very iffy and the main reason i have posted a few times about the risk/reward just not being there with the current QB draftees in round one.
There's only been one "surprise!" QB drafted in the 1st round since 2002, that being Aaron Rodgers, and he was a long slow surprise. Flacco is what he is and last year that was good enough to win a Super Bowl with when he got on a roll at the end of the year.
Yeah, I did this because I was thinking the Jets had to draft Smith if he was there because QB is such a need. I'm not so sure now! On the other hand, what do the Jets do..wait for next year and hope for a high pick? Try to pick a guy later and get lucky?
Was Rodgers that much of a surprise? Wasn't he projected to go in the top 10 but then dropped for some reason on draft day? I think I remember him waiting by the phone with the sad face...
Your 'success rate' formula is very questionable.... I don't see anyway you can include QB'S that have only been in the league less than 5 years. Why? Because typically it takes about long that for a QB to mature and be able to to use all the experience in understanding the playbook/his players/ the opposing defenses, the opposing teams stadium environment...and much more. Eli Manning is a great example of this. If you look at Eli's first 4 years in the NFL he had a QB pct average of 70.5 w/77 TD's and 64 INTs. Most would say it was a very disapointing career, not very successful at all. But after that well you know the rest of the story. If you don't think I'm correct or disagree, ask any NFL expert as how long it takes for a average NFL QB to 'get it' in the league. No one drafts a QB expecting them to be successful the 1st year or even the 2nd or 3rd.
This is why I didn't bother with the last two years. I'm well aware that there is a theory that QB's must mature. Are you aware at how much the trend has changed from grooming a drafted QB to throwing him into the fire? Are you aware of how much more successful young QB's have been in the past decade? You want to go back five years? Ok, here are the QB's I called a success: #1: Sam Bradford (Oklahoma), St. Louis Rams #1: Matthew Stafford (Georgia), Detroit Lions #3: Matt Ryan (Boston College), Atlanta Falcons #18: Joe Flacco (Delaware), Baltimore Ravens Here are the failures: #25: Tim Tebow (Florida), Denver Broncos #5: Mark Sanchez (USC), New York Jets #17: Josh Freeman (Kansas State), Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tebow, is no matter what a failure for the Broncos. Sanchez would be cut if Tanny wasn't a moron, and is a failure despite what forum trolls might think. Freeman has been struggling in Tampa bay. Both Freeman and Sanchez are on their last legs with the team that drafted them. They are close enough to failing that we can project failure. Maybe Freeman can turn it around, but it's unlikely. Ok, I'll keep that in mind the next time I talk to a "NFL EXPERT" but I guess I don't get to talk to them as much as you do, right?
Also, if you back this out 5 years, you still end up at 35%. The rate of success just hasn't been good lately. That's all I'm saying. This is in no way a scientific study, it's a forum post.
As a follow up, can you group, by round taken, the QBs that are considered "good quality starters" in the NFL today?
This is totally off the top of my head just by looking at last years passing stats, it may be wrong or I might have missed or included people I shouldn't (ie, I need a criteria for "good quality starter" other than my own opinion). First Rounders (15): Peyton Manning Stafford Ryan Luck Rodgers Palmer Eli Manning Newton Flacco Bradford Rivers Roethlisberger Griffin Vick Cutler Not First Rounders (7) Kaepernick 2 Dalton 2 Wilson 2 Brees 2 Schaub 3 Brady 6 Romo Undrafted This list is probably too generous, there are some young guys on here and we could probably argue against certain guys (Vick, Palmer, Dalton, etc)
Right up until 10 days before the draft nobody knew who the 49ers were picking with the 1 pick. The assumption was that the other guy might drop dramatically after that. The sad face on Rodgers was because 10 days before he might have been the pick but instead he got to ride the elevator down on draft day. Nobody thought the 2nd QB that year was going to be worth a high pick. The question was who the 49ers bit on and who was going down.
Sanchez/Freeman has been in the league 4 years. If you want to make a case well then at least learn to count. And BTW, if by chance Josh Freemn or Sanchez have a very good 2013, that really wouldn't matter to you as you've already made up your mind that they are failures anyway? Going by stats only doesn't make me an expert just hopefully enough to have an intelligent conversation, which you seem to be intimidated about. I questioned your 'success' thread simply because noone I have heard - which includes pro athletes, sports writers, GM's, coaches and such ever make statements that QB's should be judged as success or failures EVEN after just 3 years in the league. Care to provide a quote from an 'expert' that supports your argument? I have my opinion, you have yours, but your snide, obnoxious remarks was not called for.
