Jones vs. Mingo.

That's all there is to it. Production and upside. Jones has both. Mingo has one. Mingo would have to be a prospect similar to JPP to be in the top 15. Both freakish athletes that didn't do a WHOLE lot in college but had skill-sets to make it in the NFL. Mingo doesn't have that strength leverage to go against offensive lineman - he's going to struggle mildly and add the fact that I want a player that can play on all 3 downs. JPP had an amazing blend of the two. I see Mingo as someone only on passing downs at this stage of his career.

Jones is a 3 down OLB

 

I don't follow college ball. If the neck condition is a non-issue, the impression I get is that it's Jones all the way. How concerned should we be about the neck condition?

I want Chance Warmack at 9. Then passrusher at 13.

 

I've never watched Jarvis Jones on film and thought to myself "man, he'd look really good in Green and White". Now there have been times when watching Mingo that I have thought that but his size really, really bothers me. If I had to pick one I'd Mingo only because I think Jones doesn't have much potential. His sacks seems to come on broken protections.

 

Dion Jordan is 6'6" not 6'4" and he was widely seen as a unique athlete in the system Chip Kelly ran at Oregon. A DE who slides out to cover a slot receiver is almost unheard of. Chip a guy? Sure. Stay with him across the middle on a slant? Are you kidding me?

I do think projecting Jordan as a big pass rusher is iffy though. Again, he didn't do it in college and until you see him raise his play in the pros the assumption should be that he is not capable of that.

 

And NFL LT's are quicker than SEC LT's. He's going to have issues when he runs into a good LT because he cannot use leverage at this point to defeat the block.

Jones, BTW, is also an elusive pass rusher more than a power pass rusher but he has also shown the ability to drive into a blocker when he needs too and then move off of that.

 

Here is a breakdown of the top pass-rushers. I've included some excerpts that pertain to Jones & Mingo.

A Statistical Breakdown of the Top Pass Rushers (Pt. 1, Sacks)

How Quickly Did They Get to the QB?

I decided to measure the amount of time it took each player to get to the quarterback. With data on ten prospects, I have a good feeling for what these numbers represent.

Generally, times greater than 5 seconds are coverage sacks. Times between 3.5 and 5 seconds are the majority of sacks and what you would call “average sacks”. Sacks faster than 3.5 seconds are speed sacks which result from a good jump off the line or just great burst.

Jarvis Jones
Sack Time: 4.35
% Cover Sacks: 30.77%
% Avg Sacks: 38.46%
% Speed Sacks: 30.77

Barkevious Mingo
Sack Time: 3.63
% Cover Sacks: 0.00%
% Avg Sacks: 60.00%
% Speed Sacks: 40.00%

- Mingo, of course, had one of the fastest times in getting to the QB. You could have predicted it by looking at his athleticism on tape or at the combine, but it shows up on his sacks. Even though his number of sacks was limited, none of them were coverage sacks and he got to the QB in 3.63 seconds on average. (unfortunately there was no writeup on Jones' numbers for this)

How Did They Get There?

This is a breakdown of what moves they used to get to the QB. I simplified it down to three categories instead of having a million different moves and counters.

Jarvis Jones:
% Outside: 61.54
% Bull: 15.38
% Inside: 23.08

Barkevious Mingo
% Outside: 40.00
% Bull: 20.00
% Inside: 40.00

How Did Their Opponents Contribute?

I created a really quick and dirty strength of schedule for the pass rushers. Part sacks allowed by each team’s offensive line and part Sagarin ratings, it’s not perfect but it should give you a relative feeling for the quality of teams/ offensive lines each pass rusher got their sacks against. Thus, the higher number means tougher opponents.

Jarvis Jones
SOS: 45.00
% Blocked: 84.62
% Unblocked: 15.38

Barkevious Mingo
SOS: 51.23
% Blocked: 100.00
% Unblocked: 0.00

- Mingo, with a similar SEC schedule as Moore, got his sacks against a difficult schedule. Is this the reason for his lack of production, is it an excuse, or does it have absolutely nothing to do with it? I’m leaning towards little to do with his lack of production, but the fact that he was able to produce good speed rushes against that schedule is impressive.

How Did Their Team Contribute?

I’m not going to comment on this, just explain and post. These are the average amount of rushers and blitzers their teams sent against opposing offensive lines. The idea being, the higher the total rushers and blitzers, the more each rusher was helped by their teammates.

Jarvis Jones
Rushers: 3.69
Blitzers: 0.62
Total: 4.31

Barkevious Mingo
Rushers: 3.80
Blitzers: 0.40
Total: 4.20

Sacks By Down

Jarvis Jones
1st: 38.46%
2nd: 15.38%
3rd: 46.15%
4th: 0.00%

Barkevious Mingo
1st: 20.00%
2nd: 40.00%
3rd: 20.00%
4th: 20.00%​

Unfortunately, in the write-ups after the numbers breakdowns, the author did not go into Jones' numbers. So while it may look like I was cherry-picking stats and blurbs, I just picked everything that had Jones or Mingo in it and applied it here. Also, part 2 didn't have Jarvis Jones included in it for some reason

 

Funny that you should throw that first comment out after years of throwing physical ability in peoples' faces when talking about project picks that...

...wait for it...

... never panned out. Also funny that you were so quick to realize you were one of the people I was talking about.

Plenty of players who are productive in college are successful in the pros. Very few that aren't productive in college end up successful in the pros.

I challenge you to prove me wrong with more than five examples. Because I can prove myself right with dozens.

 

What you'd hope with this draft is that none of the picks are based on wishing. The Jets don't have enough talent right now to be doing a lot of guessing. They need to get players in here to compete and excel.

If Mingo actually projects to be a star player right off the bat then go ahead and take him early. If he's a project, well that's wishing.

 

You're on the money. You usually are.

Instant producers are the players you target in the situation the Jets are in.

Are we really looking at a project? Look at the successful teams that draft project players. They have depth in front of those players.

Project players are a luxury for teams that can wait for them to develop.

The Jets aren't close to that description.

 

I like Jones, but I'm going to trust Idzik and more so, Rex. I just think that Rex knows what to look for in a LB or DL. I know that many people before where saying that they hoped that Rex didn't have a say on the draft, but to me, when it comes down to choosing a guy in the front seven, I'm going to listen to Rex.

I've heard that Rex loves Mingo. I also read today that the Jets where liking Jarvis Jones. When it comes down to it, Im going to support the pick no matter who they choose. Hopefully Idzik and Rex can come up with a good choice to finally get us a good pass rushing linebacker.

At the end of the day, with our front seven looking the way it is, I think that any linebacker that is chosen shouldn't have it too hard to contribute. Our DLine is looking good. I think that Antwan Barnes is going to be solid and rack sacks up himself. Add in Quinton and Muhammad, and I think that coaches are going to have a tough time figuring out who to double team.

 

JONES!! Ball don't lie!!!

 

Two words: Spinal Stenosis.

 

What I want to see us bank on, is to make sure we acquire a havoc pass rusher, and not worry as much about if we're getting a 3 down player along with it.
And when it comes to solid pass rushers, I tend to emphazise on their instincts to get the job done more than physicals/stats/etc.

And that's where I see Jones being more of a havoc wrecker than Mingo.
Instincts and ability to read the flow = playmaking ability.
And that's why I see why Rex would rank Jones ahead of Mingo.

Hell, even if it turned out Jones get a short lived career due to his medical status, I would never blame the FO for gambling on him.
However, if it turns out we had a chance on grabbing Jones and pass on it, gets picked up by another team and becomes a pro bowler for a decade straight, then I wouldn't know how many buckets I'll need to spew into.

 

Having said that, I too would have zero problems with (even promote) going for offensive players.
At times, people seem to forget that possessing a productive offense grants a type of defense in its own, challenging the quality of their defense, controlling the ball and keeping your own defense fresh.
This is what's been the bane of this team for forever now.

We might have the best defensive mind in the league, and I will never be uneasy about how our defense will be as long as Rex is here, and we should use that to our advantage and I'd love to up the O-game with some high calibre pieces for MM.

If those pieces require 1-2 round picks is another question.

 

Get over yourself. I seriously don't care about conversations on here from several year's ago. If you don't like me or my posts..don't read them. If you choose to resort to bully tactics like normal...I'm gonna give it right back.


Never did I say that production wasn't an aspect. It's just one part of the whole picture. There have been plenty of college guys who jumped to the NFL & couldn't produce b/c they lacked the physical skills.

That said..the notion that Mingo doesn't have any production is absolutely ridiculous. He has 12.5 sacks in the SEC over the last 2 years to go along w/ 20.5 TFL. Jones of course has better numbers but is inferior in almost every single other aspect. Frame/ability to bend/first step/medical.

None of that stuff matters though,right?

 

Yet he never missed a down at Georgia for the condition. A condition that two experts claim was mis diagnosed and doesn't exist. I tend to think it probably does, but is very minor. This is a violent game and injuries happen to the healthiest players. Just look at former UGA DE David Pollack. Healthy star DE and breaks his neck in his rookie season. Jets under Hess had a history of avoiding talent because of potential injuries. I wonder if the Jets would have had such a poor history if they took a chance of Anthony Munoz? Jones' production is unmatched and Mingo's is extremely pedestrian.

 

Ability? I don't think so as ability equates to production and Jones produced more in each season at UGA then Mingo did in all three of his at LSU.

Mingo is also in the 230's. Whose to say that when he adds weight (if he can), that he doesn't lose that first step, etc.

Medical? Even if you believe the worst about Jones' stenosis, he has never missed playing time to injury. Mingo can't come close to making that claim. Maybe Mingo gets injured because of his long lean frame.

I believe Mingo will become a good NFL player as he was in college. Of coarse Mingo disappeared in LSU's biggest games. He made one great play in the Chick Fil A Bowl and then went down with injury. I believe Jones will be a great NFL player as he was a great college player. Jones has something you fail to mention, passion. Passion for football is something Mingo doesn't have and what make players like Ray Lewis GREAT.

 

Ahhh yeah!!!!:

Come on over Jarvis!

 

And that is the best part of the new rookie salary scale..if it forces him to retire early the investment has been minimal.