So we have conflicting reports at this point on the draft ahead of us. Some seem to think that all the teams in the top 10 are looking to trade out of those slots. Others believe that there are only 13 to 15 players with a 1st round grade. Both can't be true, because in a draft deprived of 1st round talent the last thing most teams would be doing is trading out of the only slots guaranteed a 1st round player. So which is it? Historically bad or worth trading away from the top talent to get more picks? Now if we heard that a lot of teams in the bottom half of the 1st were looking to trade up but there were very few takers for that kind of deal? Then you'd think we had a historically bad draft with only 13 to 15 real 1st round players.
I really don't think the draft is historically bad. Maybe a little lean in certain positions at the top. Some of the teams ahead of us may be looking to trade down because the strength of this draft is supposedly from the end of the 1st round to the beginning of the 3rd rd. However Jets need impact guys from Day 1 which is why they stay put at 9 and 13.
isnt it the same pretty much every year? You always hear way more about teams wanting to trade down than up because the teams at the top tend to have the most holes and want the most picks to help fix them. this draft just looks really bad simply because there are no top tier QB prospects, in some other areas its a really strong draft, so if you are sorted at the QB position this is a good draft for you.
This would explain why there isn't a market to trade down into. It's the teams at the top that need a QB that don't see plus value in the draft unless they also need an OT.
It has been said that the 1st 25 or so picks is very weak. The draft is lacking in blue chip players. But from rounds 2-4 it is very deep. Which is the reason why so many teams want to trade back as there is much more value in the late 1st round to 4th round range than in the 1-20 area. The Jets 9th pick has been compared in value to the value of a normal years 25th pick. Which is why many people expect to see 2 guards go in the top 12 who would not normally be picked in the top 25. Outside of the 3 OTs, Jordan, Floyd, and Star there is very little value in the 1st round.
I think it is actually a historically DEEP draft ... especially at Oline, Dline, Safety, WR, and the secondary. I think the lack of elite QB & RB talent ... or a monster WR (in this case i suppose it is 5' nothing Tavon Auston) has made this a difficult draft to grade out. I think this draft, more than last (in which you had monsters Luck, Griffon, Blackmon, Richardson and those "playmakers" had everyone buzzing), holds the ability to help the Jets restock. It would not bother me one lick if the Jets decided to avoid QB & RB in this draft all together, and instead worked to draft towards the strength ... Oline - take a Guard & Tackle by the end of the second day. Take two OLB prospects, (i would prefer Jordan/Jones/Mingo and then a later project type later in the draft). They should draft a Safety & Cb - (Swearinger in the 2nd gives a hard hitting safety who can actually cover in the slot if needed). I think the draft is deep at WR as well, and i think everyone would love to see a player like Ryan Swope. TE seems the other logical need that should be addressed this year - I have seen Gavin Escobar & Travis Kelce as possible mid-round selections. Obviously this is my opinion, but I think its an opportunity for the Jets to strengthin areas that were weaknesses ... and to put them in a position to add a QB & RB in a season that would help a rookie QB succeed. BTW I am one that is not sold that Rex is a goner, in fact I am fairly confident he will be returning as the Jets head coach if they can at least accomplish last years 6 wins.
There were some harsh words that were said today by the media. Their "GM sources" claim this will be the worst draft in the past 10 years. Personally, I think this is more canon fodder for the media. With the media's paralysis by analysis over every little detail, we should expect this to only get worse in years to come. Each draft class is going to be severely dissected, and every tiny detail will be reported. Future draft classes will all be marred by flaws per the media. 10 years ago we had Kiper, then we got Kiper, Mayock, and McShay. Now we have 100s of "draft experts" and social media/Internet. Let them say what they will. We will see how it turns out in 3 years.
i think this draft is deep with NFL caliper prospects but only has a few potential Pro Bowlers. Milliner Jordan Fisher Joeckel Warmack
Perfect example of what I just said is Milliner. I had him going to the Browns at the very lowest, and now today their are reports that he had 5 surgeries and won't be ready till training camp cause of his latest shoulder surgery. I honestly don't remember such a scrutinized draft class.
It all falls on if the right guy goes to the right franchise. If that happens, you know you'd get a HoF production out of the player. If not, you get a bust. I personally think, each draft is roughly the same in terms of the player quality. It is just that, teams don't realize that they are still drafting [prospects] and do a piss-poor job at coaching them up. Unless you are talking about those work-out warriors and kids with no desire (Dslob/Ghost come to mind) you are talking about good kids, willing to put the work into the job and learn the position. All that remains is how the coaching staff raise them up. (Or that's my two cents.)
No top tier QBs, no top tier WRs, no top tier RBs. Sooo the 3 positions we need the most pretty much.
Your hypothesis is false. Let's assume that both of your clauses were true where most teams wanted to trade out of the top 10 but there were only 13-15 real 1st round players. You say that both can't be true at the same time, but they can of course. You have a top 10 pick, but you can't get a franchise QB or explosive offensive playmaker. But there are only 13-15 players with a true 1st round grade. So obviously you look to trade back to 13-18 (since a few players always get overvalued so you can still get a 1st round player) and pick up extra pick/s in the 2nd/3rd/4th where the draft is deep and you can get a lot of value for the extra prospect. If true it would obviously create a buyers market for teams 13-18 but that only underscores how fallacious your entire premise is due to the extreme imbalance of supply/demand created by top 10 teams competing to sell their pick off to a few select teams. Interesting discussion otherwise.
I think everyone gets hung up on who "Grades" as 1st round talent when it comes to draft day. It's nice to rank players and everything running up to draft day, but when draft day comes it's a horse of a different color. to me the stone cold fact is on draft day if there's a player you want and you think he'll be gone before your turn in the draft then you trade up for him. Same as any other draft. It all depends on your board and how the team has them ranked. If you believer Player X is noticiably better than the next player on your board it doesn't matter if in any other draft he'd be a 2nd round talent, what matters is his talent in THIS draft compared to the others in this draft. So in that regard there are about 15-20 players who stand well above the rest of this draft class. so what if in any other draft they'd be second rounders, that's irrelavant since you can't save draft picks for next year, they have to be spent now. So personally I think we will see a lot of movement in the first round. But we will see few, if any, Picks traded from next years draft to move up or down, though maybe some late round picks in next years draft. Fact is if you think Player A is your guy and you think Player A will be gone before your pick and you believe he's substantially better in your eyes, either talent wise or how they fit in to your teams scheme, then you trade up for him just like any other draft....You just don't trade future picks (especially day one or day 2 picks) to move up....
Speaking of which, there is an unbstantiated rumor the Saints may be open to trading up to draft Mingo.....no links for it, heard it on local radio, but it would be interesting if true...though with the Saints lack of picks this year I find it somewhat hard to believe... though maybe they'd offer a 3rd, Ivory and a 6th or 7th from next years draft ....Just a thought.
Almost every team in the top 10 is there because they need a QB. Not all, but almost all. This draft is historically terrible at the QB position which is why everyone is looking to trade down. Their biggest need is QB and there is no one there worth taking that high. It's funny though because I actually think we picked a PERFECT time to rebuild. This draft is extremely deep with talent at all the positions of need. TE, OL, Pass Rusher, RB, WR, etc. Yes, we need a QB, but we can get some great talent through this draft.
It's historically lacking in game changing talent. On the other hand the players from pick 15 to 75 are closer in talent than normal. It's shallow in top end talent but deep in guys who can start at the next level. It's why guys like Warmack, cooper, and Austin are mentioned as top ten players, because you don't have the game changing talent that should be there. It's a perfect draft for teams needing a lot of players to try and pick up an extra second or third rounder. I also makes good sense for teams late I. Round one to move up and get that one guy they think they are missing. I think we will see a good deal of movement Thursday night.
I think, as said above, that it's a good class, but no sexy/superstar top picks available. There's no obvious can't miss prospect like Luck or RG3 or Megatron that everyone is clamoring to get on their team. There are many very good players who will become All-Pro level players, but no one that jumps out at you and says "I'm a future HOF player. You'll regret passing on me."
Smoke and mirrors. Teams are trying to drive down the cost of trading up by flooding the trade down market.
