If your STL or MIN....why take that chance. The higher pick you get, the less teams you have to worry about trading up. Its why despite if we get 13, teams want the 9 more to have a better shot to secure someone like Austin. Of course Buf can present a better pick than us in a deal, which is why I see them and STL striking a deal......STL gets Austin and BUF gets Manuel or Nassib. Its just a matter of if teams wanna trade up or if BUF wants Austin or someone to keep the 8th pick. Ultimately I see Austin gone before we pick at 9....just to which team idk.
There's a pretty good chance Austin is gone before #9, really there are only 3 or 4 chances for the Jets to make a substantial trade down from #9 and gain enough picks to make it worth moving down. Basically it requires one of the following players to be available at #9, and one or 2 of them the Jets would take at #9 unless they were blown away with an offer. The scenarios: A) Austin is on the board and a team below feels there's a good chance that that a team in 10-12 range will draft him or the Jets lay a good smoke screen making teams think they'll take Austin (which might not even be a smoke screen). After all last year the Vikings got paid to move down one spot by the Browns because they laid a smoke screen about drafting the player the Browns wanted...so it does happen. 75% likely Austin is on the board at #9 B) One of the 3 prime OT's are still on the board at #9. There is a substantial drop off after those 3 and there are a number of teams in serious needs at LT. 10% chance one of the OT's is on the board at #9. C) Dee milner is still on the board at #9, if the Jets don't trade Revis there are several teams in the 15-25 range that might pull the trigger to move up for him. If the Jets do trade Revis there is a real chance the Jets would draft him and need to be blwon away with an offer to trade down. 50/50 chance Milner is still on the board there. D) Star is still on the board, The Jets are likely to have an interest in Star, but there are a number of teams that might make a very solid offer to move up for Star, any offers would have to be considered, but to be accepted it would have to be a fairly strong offer. Odds of of Star being on the board at #9 are about 70%.
Good scenarious. Here is my take on each one A) if Austin is there at 9 and a reasonable trade is offered, take it and run B) if an OT from the top 3 is still there, then draft him and we almost instantly have a top OL by moving our existing tackle to OG C) if Milner is there, Revis trade or not take a trade if advantageous D) I have a hard time not drafting Star if still there at 9
The only tackle that could possibly fall to 9 is Lane Johnson, but it's not likely. If that does happen, what tackle moves to guard? Can Howard play there? If he's above average then Brick-Colon-Mangold-Howard-Johnson isn't too bad.
There is a fifth scenario, but I didn't mention it because it's only about 1% likely he's still on the boards when the Jets pick at #9 and a team would basically have to give the Jets their first 3 picks this year and their #1 pick next year in order to get the Jets to trade down. So between the unlikely event that he's still on the board and the extremely unlikely event a team would offer enough to get the Jets to trade down instead of drafting him themselves I didn't list the possiblity of Dion slipping down to #9.....but has about the same chances of occuring as me winning the lottery this Wednesday, Marrying my Dream Woman, AND getting hit by lightening all on the same day....aka it aint happening.
The dream scenario where Jordan falls to 9 requires a bunch of teams following specific needs and taking risks above the Jets. Geno Smith needs to go on 2, 4 or 6 to the Jags, Eagles or Browns. Another QB likely has to get taken above the Jets, either Barkley, Manuel or Nassib. Chance Warmack needs to get taken in the top 8. If all of those things happen then Jordan probably slides down to the Jets. If two of them happen it's probably 50/50 he gets down to 9.
The only reason Fluker isn't considered with Johnson is probably because most think Fluker is purely a RT.
Is RT really that big a need though? Howard is no pro-bowler but I think he did well enough to give him a second year. I don't see why we'd get Fluker in the second when we can address safety, guard, OLB, or WR which are bigger needs. I think we do need a guard though.
The next time you watch Gronk and Hernendez dance through our backfield on the way to the end zone, please remind me of how TE is not worthy of a first round selection. I would like to see us trade pick 9 to the Vikings for both of their first rounders (they can have Santonio Holmes too for all I care). Keep pick # 13 and take Cooper if he is there. After that following the value board should land us starters that can: A. get open in space and catch the ball B. rush the passer C. fill other holes If we get Chris Ivory I would not worry about QB or RB until 2014.
Howard is a scrub. Unless we put a Warmack / Cooper type next to him at RG we will not win a SB with him starting.
He was underrated and an improvement over Wayne Hunter. And even when Hunter was starting we didn't draft OL until the end of the 6th round. We got a lot more holes than last year so I don't see us drafting a tackle early unless we get a steal.
Sorry I didn't make myself clearer. I was not suggesting the Jets draft Fluker, but that he is a quality OT worthy of first round consideration. Everyone was talking top three and if Fluker was a LT prospect we would be talking about top four OTs.
Look, I understand your position here. Can you tell me what rounds Gronk and Hernandez were drafted in?
Look where that got us. We might make the playoffs with Howard at RT but to win it all we need an upgrade there in the next year or two.
Well QB is a position that you usually spend a 1st round pick on if you are hunting for a starter. That's kind of the point. Spending a mid 1st on a TE is giving away value unless the guy is going to be very, very good and by very, very good I mean borderline hall of fame or better.
One of your scenarios will be in play unless all of the above plus Dion Jordan and Sharrif Floyd go in the first 8 picks. In a draft as unsettled as this one the odds on the 8 players above all going in the first 8 are pretty low.
If we traded down with Minnesota, I'd bet big that #25 would be Ertz. If you like him as much as Idzik supposedly does, you don't risk losing him in between that pick and the 2nd round.
You think Idzik takes Ertz over Cooper? I'm guessing Cooper is there at 25 and the Jets jump on him because the chance to plug in a great LG at 25 is too much to pass up. The other interesting thing at this point is that there's lots of smoke being blown around the concept of Austin at 9, Geno Smith at 13 and Steadman Bailey at 72. That's likely just designed to increase the pressure on teams to trade up for Austin though.
