I know many of you don't like seeing mocks with trades, so I included a warning. I am also assuming that we make the Revis trade, however, we do not make it until the Bucs are OTC. I will mock all teams until the Jets latest 1st round pick to show who I think is trading up for and why. This is my first real attempt at a mock while watching a lot of film on players, so please be constructive but not too harsh! Thanks! 2013 Round 1: 1 (KC): Luke Joeckel, OT 2 (JAX): Dion Jordan, OLB 3 (OAK): Sharrif Floyd, DT 4 (PHI): Geno Smith, QB First real surprise of the draft. QBs always go early, and this one just makes too much sense. PHI has a desperate need for QB, Geno is the best on board, and he would be perfect with Chip Kelly's system. Sometimes it's best to not over-think things. 5 (DET): Eric Fisher, OT 6 (SD): Lane Johnson, OT TRADE: SD needs an "elite" LT, and trades up to grab the last remaining. CLE wants a CB, and hopes Milliner can drop to them at #11. Also picks up a nice package in return for trading out. Most CLE fans on CLE boards want to trade down, so this makes sense. 7 (ARI): Ezekiel Ansah, OLB This pick may also surprise some. ARI is bummed that SD jumped them for Johnson. They could go guard here, but their HC has come out saying how impressed he is with the depth at guard and at center in this draft, so I don't see it happening. They do need pass-rushing help and TE help, and I doubt they go Eifert this early. This pick could go Jones, but I see Ansah going first. 8 (BUF): EJ Manuel, QB I firmly believe EJ will be the second QB off the board, and I see him going in the top 10. BUF needs a QB, so they take the second best available. Makes sense to me. 9 (CAR): Dee Milliner, CB Carolina needs a CB badly, especially playing in the same division as Julio Jones, Roddy White, Vincent Jackson, and the entire NO Saints passing attack. They see CLE and TB ahead of them (we haven't traded Revis yet at this point), and see two CB hungry teams. With Milliner on the board, Carolina can get the best CB in the draft for a second round pick. They pull the trigger. 10 (TEN): Chance Warmack, OG 11 (CLE): Xavier Rhodes, CB 12 (MIA): DJ Fluker, OT After losing Long, MIA needs another OT, so they take their guy here. 13 (NYJ): Cordarelle Patterson, WR The Bucs realize the two CBs worthy of the #13 are gone, and finally cave to Idzik's demands. In this situation, I don't put it past him to get more than the 1, 3, and 5, but for conservative's sake, that's all I'll mock with. The Jets take Patterson for a few reasons. The two QBs they like (as a first rounder anyway) are off the board. They do not want to go defense with their first pick, nor does Idzik want his first pick to be a guard in Cooper. Jets take arguably the BPA here, and one that will be a position of need for us next year when Holmes is gone. 14 (MIN): Tavon Austin, WR The Vikings trade with the Jets here. They absolutely NEED another dynamic playmaker for Ponder, especially now that Harvin is gone. They see Patterson off the board, and panic to get who many believe to be the best WR in the class. They give up a second to move down nine picks. 15 (NO): Star Lotulelei, DE/DT Star's fall ends here, as NO needs players to fit their 3-4. Take the by far BPA here. 16 (STL): Kenny Vaccaro, S 17 (PIT): Jarvis Jones, OLB 18 (DAL): Jonathan Cooper, OG 19 (NYG): Alec Ogletree, LB 20 (CHI): Tyler Eifert, TE 21 (CIN): Matt Elam, S 22 (STL): Eddie Lacy, RB 23 (NYJ): Barkevious Mingo, OLB Now, I am not a superhuge fan of Mingo. I would HATE to see him drafted at nine. I wouldn't even jump for joy if we took him here. At the same time, Rex loves him, and I feel he is a realistic pick. I'd take Mingo and two seconds over a Jarvis Jones/Warmack/Milliner anyday. A notable slip here is Sheldon Richardson. I think he'll be scooped up quickly after 23. Now onto the rest of the NYJ draft: 2 (NYJ): Zach Ertz, TE Idzik loves Ertz (reportedly), so I can't see him not being the pick if he's available here. 2 (CAR): Larry Warford, OG Warford is an athletic OG that will be perfect in our system. It's time to bulk up our OL. 2 (MIN): Giovani Bernard, RB Gio is going under the radar, so I can see him slipping until the end of the second. If he falls there, it would be foolish not to pick him up. 3 (NYJ): DJ Swearinger, SS Swearinger would bolster our safety corps after losing Landry. A definite bruiser with coverage ability, he would provide good value at a position of need. Will compete with Dawan Landry for playing time. 3 (TB): Phillip Thomas, FS Yes, back to back safety picks. I mentioned how this is a deep draft for safeties, and we choose here to set up our secondary for the next half a decade (assuming Kyle Wilson ever learns how to turn his head around). Leader in the FBS in INTs (if I'm not mistaken) and can also hit like a truck. Teams will be scared to come across the middle against us. 4: Brennan Williams, OT The Jets decide to go back to the OL to take a slipping Williams. Injuries have dropped his stock significantly, and is definitely a high-quality talent. Would start immediately at RT opening up holes for college teammate Bernard. This would also allow Colon/Howard to compete for time at RG, that way if Howard cannot make the transition to guard to be our long-term piece, we have a sure-thing in Colon to take his place. 5 (NYJ): Matt Scott, QB Idzik takes his developmental QB here in Matt Scott out of Arizona. A dual-threat QB, Idzik may see shades of Russell Wilson. Barring a huge surprise, will absolutely not start day 1. 5 (TB): Lonnie Pryor, FB/H-Back A FB/H-Back is important in a WCO, and we do not currently have a good one. Pryor can block, can catch balls out of the backfield, and run a bit. Very underrated player in my opinion. 6: Brad Wing, P Guy is an absolute beast. Nothing wrong with snagging a very good punter, especially with the often incompetent nature of our offense. 7: Philip Lutzenkirchen, TE Ah yes, our favorite round 7 pickup. Injuries killed his stock, would make a good developmental TE behind Ertz to potentially run a 2-TE set someday. TL;DR summary: 1. Cordarelle Patterson 1. Barkevious Mingo 2. Zach Ertz 2. Larry Warford 2. Gio Bernard 3. DJ Swearinger 3. Phillip Thomas 4. Brennan Williams 5. Matt Scott 5. Lonnie Pryor 6. Brad Wing 7. Philip Lutzenkirchen 2013 Roster: QB: Sanchez/Scott/Gerrard RB: Bernard/Goodson/Powell/McKnight FB: Pryor WR: Holmes/Patterson/Kerley/Hill TE: Ertz/Cumberland/Lutzenkirchen LT: Ferguson LG: Warford C: Mangold RG: Colon/Hunter RT: Williams LE: Coples NT: Ellis/Harrison RE: Wilkerson WOLB: Mingo WILB: Davis SILB: Harris SOLB: Barnes/Pace CB1: Cromartie CB2: Wilson Nickel: Lankster Dime: Trufant FS: Thomas SS: Landry/Swearinger K: Folk P: Brad Wing Strengths: D-line and secondary is set for a very long time. Offense is set for a very long time minus QB. Weaknesses: Need to replace Harris, OLB opposite Mingo, and a QB (in the future anyway, not necessarily for next year). Don't expect this team to be great this year as they will go through young growing pains, but this draft will certainly accelerate our rebuild. FLAME ON!
It's a little unrealistic to think we'll get two 2nd-round picks in two separate trade downs. That said, the players that are available at 9 and 14 are completely realistic teams would trade up for those guys. Manuel at 8 is a bit of a reach, but it's not completely crazy. Could definitely see someone trading to 6 to take Johnson ahead of the Cardinals. Patterson vs Austin is such a coinflip, it's hard to say which I prefer. Greg Cosell had a great article today talking about how Austin and Patterson have that rare explosive ability that causes matchup problems. That's what we need on offense. Hopefully, Hill can become that player, but he's a different player than Patterson/Austin. I'm fine with either selection. Mingo at 23, again, we need speed and guys who can make plays. At 23, Mingo makes all the sense in the world. I'm not in love with Ertz, but he should be a solid starter, and we need a tight end. Warford I like a lot. He's a great fit in round 2 at guard. I think expecting Swearinger to be there in round 3 is a little bit wishful, but if he's there, he's a great pick. Not sure we need to back it up with Thomas with Landry, Allen and Bush here, but I agree with you it's a very good safety class, and that would set us at safety. Giovani Bernard would be a nice fit in the WCO. Matt Scott in round 5 is nice value. He's right there with Dysert in that tier. I don't love any QB in this draft, but I still would like to take one at some point, particularly with this many picks. I like getting Brennan Williams in round 4 as competition for Howard/a developmental prospect. While I'd be very happy with this draft, my one beef with it is not picking up a cornerback. With no Revis, we're left with Cromartie, Wilson, Lankster and who, Walls? We'd be loaded at safety, but I'd be confused why we didn't take a cornerback.
I like Bernard but using a high pick on a RB isn't ideal, imo. I'd much rather get Ivory and draft a RB in the later rounds like Stepfon Jefferson or Zac Stacy. I don't like the Mingo pick. there's something about him that screams NFL bust to me. I would also pass on Patterson. I like either Warmack or Cooper for our first rd pick. if we got an extra one like you have later in the round I would take either Ertz or Hopkins.
Overall, I really like it. There are some picks that I don't really like though. I don't like Cordarrelle. I used to like him a lot but then I started watching some tape on him and I couldn't help but notice some awful drops. I'd rather try to trade down from that pick again for a mid, or early 20s pick and take DeAndre Hopkins, who IMO is the most complete receiver in this draft. I like the Mingo pick at 23. I didn't really like him much before, but hearing how much Rex likes him has made me kinda like him a bit. Haven't really watched too much of Ertz but I've heard good things about him so I wouldn't mind. Like the Warford pick. Love the Giovanni Bernard pick. I also really liked the two safety's you took. Sweringer and Thomas are two of my favorite safety's in this draft and I think that they would compliment each other perfectly. We'd finally have a true FS and SS. I was about to say that instead of picking Cordarrelle at 13 you should take Vaccaro but then i remembered these two. I don't mind the Brennan pick, although I do like Howard at RT. I think that Howard is too big to play Guard. The guy is like 6"7'. It'll be hard to find a QB who can see over the guy. I don't know much about Matt Scott, but I wouldn't mind taking a QB this late, especially a dual threat QB. I'm kind of hesitant on taking a FB in the 5th, but again I don't know much of him so I don't mind. Overall good draft.
Thanks for the feedback so far guys! Seems like the consensus is Cordarelle isn't the best option at 13. Tavon Austin is another possible option there, or we could go Jonathan Cooper at 13 and Hopkins/Woods/Hunter instead of Warford in Rd 2.
We could pick up cooper in the 2nd there's no need to reach too soon, though I can't imagine us taking him over Lotulelei. I agree completely that if Milliner is there we take him, if he's gone and Lotulelei is there we take him. Either way Milliner is gone and it forces TB's hand to do something drastic like sale the farm to get Revis. Which is what I think it will take to get him. As much as I want Revis to resign at a reasonable price the fact remains that if TB is willing to give us multiple picks, a 1st this year and probably 2014 picks. We could be in position to get Bridgewater, and I'll take top of the draft talent and Bridgewater over Revis. Best case scenario is ATL does want to trade up and we trade back plus the Revis trade to TB, landing two 1st round picks this year.
If we take Milliner before trading Revis, that lowers Revis' value, as we almost have to trade him at that point. For those saying Star, where would he play? He is NOT a 3-4 NT. Our last two first round draft picks have been spent on 3-4 DEs, and there can only be two on the field at any given time. Also, we're not gonna be in position for Teddy next year. Say we pick nine again, and say we get TBs first at 13 again next year (and just for the record, I think both teams will be better). It will take quite a lot of picks to trade up to #1 to take Teddy.
I know there is a ton of love for Bridgewater here, but IMO there are better QB's in next years draft including Murray, McCarron and Boyd who have all performed better and in more years. Even if TB is the concensus #1, teams in need of a franchise QB will score next year.
It Star may not be an extremely fat Vince Wilfork NT but the guy certainly isn't a DE, he weighs 320 lbs. If we trade with TB and ATL we'll probably have 8 picks in the first 4 round. We would be very much in play to get Bridgewater with picks left over in the top rounds. Even if we just trade with TB we would still be in a position to trade up.
Haloti Ngata is heavier than that. Star would be best suited in that role, as a DE/DT hybrid jumping around the line creating mismatches. I think it would be a waste to just confine him to NT.
I'd prefer not to draft a WR with a 1st rounder. Let Hill get reps in this rebuilding year as a starter, and let him be a future pro bowler for the next 6. Kerley shows promise. I hope we don't take Austin or Patterson. I like the Warford pick, I hope we don't go for Warmack or Cooper in the 1st if we can get Warford in the 2nd. If we trade Revis, I hope a 2nd rounder is spent on Jonathan Banks (CB from Mississippi St.) I like the Gio pick, but I have a good feeling about Goodson being behind a good o-line and in a WCO. I'm not sure why we need to replace Harris. He's still young. But this draft would set us up well for 2014. Thanks for posting.
I know where you're coming from, and if I thought his talent would be wasted just plugging the A gap like a cork I would agree. Fact is Rex runs a LOT of 4 man fronts and if any coach in football could make it work it would be him.
