11 days to go, my top plus 4

I would be upset if this is how it happened.

If we get the 13, I'd want to snag a combination of Jordan/Jones/Ansah/Top OLB and either Vaccaro or Cooper/Warmack with the other pick, and then take either Elam/Warford depending on who whether we took Vaccaro or the G in the first.

 

Cooper/Warmack on the 9th followed by either Jones/ Ansah would be spectacular. If the Jags and Bills both go QB then there is a chance that Star, Fisher or Johnson would drop to the 9th spot in which case we have more options. Dream situation is Floyd drops to 9th and we grab him, giving us the best DL in football.
Can't wait for the draft.

 

Again, why are two guards in the top 13, and why is the guy not seen as a unique prospect being taken over the guy who is?

Warmack and Cooper are not worthy of top 13 picks. Not because they're not good prospects but because they play a position that is best filled with a solid journeyman not an expensive star.

Why is guard not worth the star power cost?

Because the job of a guard is less challenging than the job of a tackle. They don't have an exposed edge that they have to cover. Quickness is not at the same premium because the players they are blocking, defensive tackles, are not as quick or fast as the defensive players who play on the edge. They have potential help on both sides of them for the occasions when a really good defensive tackle is lined up on the other side.

Given that guards have a less challenging role in the offense they need to also take less space against the cap. You need to have good tackles or the edges become porous and everything breaks down from there. So you pay tackles well, with the left tackle on the QB's blind side paid the best, then the right tackle and so on.

Taking a guard on the 9 or 13 would be solidifying the grasp of supporting positions on the Jets salary cap moving forward. The Jets would then have an expensive center and a soon to be expensive guard tying up a lot of money against the cap. It stands to reason that it would be hard to retain a topflight right tackle in that scenario. The edge would be weaker than it ought to be.

If the Jets really want to make the line better this year the answer is probably to trade down some and get one of the top 5 tackles to play right tackle for them. They can move Austin Howard, who is still fairly cheap, inside to play right guard and see how he does there. If he's decent they can sign him to a reasonable extension.

If not, or if he is unwilling to sign an extension at favorable terms the Jets can draft a guard in the mid to late rounds next year and plug him in between their high pick right tackle and Nick Mangold.

Throwing their hands up and surrendering by drafting a guard up high is just giving up future competitive advantage to fill a hole for a long time with a player who will always be trouble on the Jets cap.

 

The reason Warmack and Cooper could both go in the top 10 is that the top end of the draft is amazingly weak. Scouts have commented that in a normal draft both would be drafted at the end of the 1st round but because this draft is so weak they are both top 10 possibilities. It is more about the lack of of talent in the 1st round than how good Warmack and Cooper. Although they are bot considered to be great prospects and very good compared to guards taken in previous years. They are both almost sure things when the rest of the 1st round is filled with question marks and risky players. Not to mention they would fill a huge need. A Guard at 9 and the a safety (in a very strong safety class) in rounds 2 or 3 would provide 2 starters, fill 2 big holes and provide 2 immediate impact players.

It is just our bad luck that when we get a top 10 pick it ends up being equivalent to a normal 25-32 pick. We really do not have a #9 pick, in comparative value our pick is only a #25.

 

It doesn't matter if Warmack and Cooper are the BPA's on 9. The Jets can't have a guard coming to them in 3 years and saying $9M a year or I'm leaving as soon as I can to go look for that.

If the Jets need to reach for a more impactful position, one that they could justify paying like a superstar if they hit on the pick, they should do that instead of setting up a showdown with a superstar guard that they lose even if they get the guy signed when he comes due.

David DeCastro was more pure talent than half the guys taken above him last year. he was also a guard and so he fell to the Steelers in the mid 20's. That's as it should be.

Maybe Chance Warmack is a once in a generation talent who should be taken in the top 15. In a weak draft that's always a possibility. But Jonathan Cooper clearly is not in that class. The only reason people are talking about taking Cooper up high is because Warmack has opened up the conversation and Cooper is the 2nd best guard behind him.

 

cooper over warmack? this the first time i have seen that. i thought warmack was the top g. personnaly i'd rather take a pass rusher at 9. i like vacarro at 13 but i'd rather see austin there.

jones/ansah at 9
austin at 13
gives both sides of the ball a much needed weapon

 

I'm not a big fan of Ansah on the 9 because of his lack of experience but I'd take him every time over Warmack or Cooper. At least if Ansah works out he's a great pass rusher eating cap space instead of a guard doing the same.

The conversation in the NFL is really changing though. QB, LT, WR. Those are the huge money positions at this point. Everybody else is going to be fighting for what's left of the cap after that.

 

based on this,you take austin at 9? or maybe geno at 9 and austin at 13?

i wouldn't hate that, the rookie cap lets you swing and miss with less repercussions than in the past but we are not in a position to gamble on 2 picks either. i think austin is a gamble where one of the lb's will at least be b.thomas at worst

 

The way I'd look at it in this situation is: the pick hits and the guy is a star. Ok, it's 2016 and it's time to look at extending him and he comes to you with an offer for a 5 year $50 million extension with $25 million guaranteed.

Who would you be willing to pay that kind of money too to secure their star level services for 5 years?

When you can answer that you also know who the Jets should be willing to take on the 9 pick. If the answer is "hell no we'd never pay that for a <fill in the blank> then the odds are really good that person cannot be the pick on the 9.

 

I wouldn't take a Guard in the top 10 no matter how good he seems to be, and its not like either of these guard prospects are without flaws.

 

so its got to be the pass rusher or a qb. the problem with this is you can end up reaching for players instead of taking bpa.besides what is to stop decastro(for example) from saying he wants the 5 yrs 50mil in 2 years if he is a all pro player at the time.
i always respect your opinion but i think you are heading to the "paralysis by over analysis" ledge with this.

 

What's going to stop DeCastro is that he wasn't a top 10 pick.

One of the things that comes with being a top 10 pick is that if you work out and become a star you get paid through the nose on your next contract. That's always been true and it's probably gotten worse with the advent of the rookie wage scale - which has seriously depressed top 10 contract values on the first contract.

Other players, particularly QB's, WR's and pass rushers also do very well on the second contract but getting taken in the top 10 makes the huge money deal just a formality if you turn into a star.

 

that is the past. top ten picks were getting paid on the 2nd contract because of how big their rookie deals were.they performed and had to get a raise in their second deal.the rookie wage scale is going to restore order to the 2nd wave of contracts. a guard coming up on his 2nd is not going to get a deal that much over the top in that position because his first contract will be significantly lower,leaving room for an increase.

 

I'm at a loss in your logic. If a guard is not that great of a draft position in terms of value, why would another team give them the big bucks 3 years from now? I agree that an OT is a more critical position, but BPA is BPA and it would instantly improve our team. So I would take an immediate contributor, albeit a guard, than a prospect player unless is a QB with some real intangibles than is worth betting on, and neither Smith nor Barkley are in that category.

 

The rookie wage scale is not going to drive down prices on the second contracts for star players. It will drive down the franchise tag a bit but star players are still going to get paid. Star players who were taken very high in the draft are going to continue to get disproportionately compensated on their later contracts.

The rookie wage scale is going to drive down prices for players who are good to average. They previously signed second deals that were improvements over their rookie deals, and while that may still be the case the rookie deals are going to be lower and so salaries will come down.

The basic rule of thumb is going to be that if you are very valuable you will be able to negotiate favorable deals and if you are not very valuable you will not be able to.

Part of being very valuable is where you were taken at the start and how that has created the perceptions that people have of you. Under-rated is not a term that applies to top ten draft picks.

 

Typically being drafted higher means teams think you have more ability/more upside. I don't think that's really the case at offensive guard where you would get paid out the ass just because you were a top-10 pick.

Being a high pick just means you have more exposure, and the perception is you have more talent. But I think the idea that you can't take Cooper or Warmack because of what their contract demands might possibly be 5 years down the road isn't the right mindset. 5 years from now, Mangold may be a shell of himself and we can afford a big money OG.

Normally, I'm opposed to a guard in round 1. But if we get the 13th pick for Revis, and we grab a guard with one of those picks, I have no problem. We've drafted 1 offensive lineman in round 5 or higher since 2007 (Ducasse). Cooper and Warmack are largely considered better prospects than DeCastro, who himself was considered a very good prospect.

It's not like we're passing up on players who are both good value and address needs.

 

IMHO, the Jets need a safe pick at #9. Chance Warmack is not only safe but most player evaluators have him as the 2nd player in the draft. A few years ago 90% of this board were rooting for Gholston (sp?)to be the pick. How did that work out? Ansah and Mingo are risk because you just don't know how they will play in the pros. The Jets cannot screw up the #9 pick. Warmack is a future HOF player.

 

agree VK with respect to jets have to be safe and conservative here (1st idzik pick) recall tangini's 1st pick - brick - u could have awoke from a 90 day coma 1 day before the draft and made that pick.....

if warmack is the one - that is a potentially very expensibe 3/5ths of ur OL. that leaves the remaining 2/5ths in the bargain bin and likely not very talented.

and of course picking a guard at 9 is blasphemy- but i agree that warmack may turn into steve hutchinson and be a stalwart for years to come.

its a tough call with multiple factors. i keep going back and forth between OL and another front 7 pick on D. once again the jets defense is 1-2 players away from being top 5 and carrying this team. do they go for it and take a less safe name in hopes of putting the unit over the top?

or do they make a splash with the O and take a receiver, or dare i say it QB in the top 10.

my bias will always be defense but warmack is that good - would be a helluva lot easier if he could swing out to tackle at some point after a year or 2. but this is the jets - its never giftwrapped like that.