So someone tell me if this accurate (very simplistic idea): -NK probably doesn't have the nuclear abilities to mainland US or even Hawaii -NK historically talks a lot about attacking and such -Having a new, young leader could be a reasoning for all this talk and such BUT if they fail to do anything it will just come off as more talk Is that basically correct? Then some questions I have: -If NK did attack SK or some neighbors, they would get demolished by non nuclear bombings correct? They would get one chance to attack then we would destroy them? -Is there any chance NK is really targeting the US or has the capabilities to hit us? -Would we have a problem or any reasons to hold back from unleashing attacks on NK if they provoke us? Is there any international downside from retaliating without nuclear weapons? Thanks for the help guys
Just think of it as a junk yard dog scenario and you're holding a shotgun but you can't fire until it has taken a bite out of you. Then the odds are pretty good you'll kill it but there's a chance it gets some more bites in and a very small chance there's a huge pack of junk yard dogs waiting to join in if the first shotgun blast misses. It's nasty. That's why the bluffing and bluster has made us very nervous in the past and is probably doing so again.
Good analogy. Thanks for the help. So we should be in control, but we can't be certain hence the worry.
I'd like to think the sinking of one of our warships is an act of war. It's ancient history now but "Remember the Maine". That was something I thought, this seems to be a little more than just sabre rattling. Almost an I dare you to do something tone. His father was a loon but I don't think he ever really pushed the issue this far. My theory is that he isn't the one calling the shots and it's his military leaders. He's just the mouthpiece because people know him. This is one of those cases where we better hope US Intellgence has their shit together because millions of innocent lives will be lost if they don't. Why Austin? It's a cool city but it's pretty random. I don't think they could reach Hawaii but if I lived in Anchorage I would be pretty nervous because I think that's about the capacity of their weapons reach.
I'm pretty sure China doesn't want nuclear bombs going off in SK, particularly if the wind is blowing their way. I'm not ready to believe this escalates. The North Koreans are posturing.
Below is just my read of the situation. I think Bradway's analogy is a pretty good one. 1) NK can't hit much US soil with their current demonstrated ballistic missile tech. Who's to say they use a ballistic missile? Why not load the bomb on a container ship destined for the US west coast and set it off before it gets into port? That'd make a heckuva mess. 2) Yes, the sabre rattling always happens, particularly when we're having an exercise. It gives them a chance to make news and shake the international community down for more cash. 3) Yes, more or less. They always talk. For some reason, the media's making a bigger deal out of it than usual this time. However, they've also closed access to their joint industrial park with S. Korea (Kaesong). That's something they haven't done as often as it's a cash cow. 4) Pretty much. However, don't underestimate how brainwashed their people are. Some can be pretty committed (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_Gangneung_submarine_infiltration_incident) 5) Doubtful, but possibly (see answer to 1). 6) I have a feeling that by and large there are lots of people out there that will criticize the US for whatever action it takes or fails to take.
Guys, North Korea is walking the Saddam path. You can bluster to a point. However, when you try to become a threat, and have a massive human rights issue...youre begging to get taken out. Trust me....china is backing North Korea now. Once China can turn a profit on newly found North Korean labor...regime change. As china develops its economy, it will need cheap labor at some point. Ever see a satellite pic of North Korea at night? You could annihlate the country in a day.
The Chinese strategy that makes sense is to wait until things start happening on the ground and then open their border with North Korea. Hundreds of thousands of refugees will come across the border into China and settle in refugee camps there. When the fighting is over the Chinese let them back across the border again, probably with resettlement assistance, and have a huge constituency in North Korea to make sure that China is welcomed with open arms as the new de facto ruling authority in North Korea. The Chinese have a dog in this fight but it isn't the NK regime, it's the North Koreans who will ultimately control the country after the fighting is over.
I saw on the news today that N. Korea has moved a missile to their East Coast. Japanese intellegance says this particular missile can hit the US however the US says it can't. I hope we are right in they decide to launch. I have a friend who teaches English in Busan and he says it's business as usual although he also said people are starting to get a little nervous but the feeling is S. Korea won't get hit until the US strikes back (or first)
Last time the US went to Korea they lost something like 30,000 personnel. 'Annihilating' a country just doesn't happen any more, look at Iraq, look at Afghanistan . Guerrilla warfare is what 'wins' so called wars these days, that and economic destruction.
I just want to put this here before it happens, so I can prove how predictable some people are: Brace for the first interviews with either Alan Alda or Mike Farrell. More likely, Farrell.
Shit about to hit the fan.... The Chinese are moving troops and tanks to their border with N. Korea. This is probably to prevent an overflow of refugees into China. http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/apr/3/risky-business-china-continues-military-buildup-ne/
What could NK possibly gain by nuking Hawaii, besides pissing the world off and getting destroyed? It's not like it would significantly weaken the US or anything close to that. If anybody was to launch a nuclear attack on the US, they'd have to literally nuke 10-15 major cities to even have a chance of takeover. It's also way more likely that if some country launched a random nuke, we'd be able to disarm it or shoot it out of the sky before it came close to us. Stopping 10-15 nukes, however, would probably not happen.
You ever see the pick of Iraq at night? You could annihilate the country in a day... Oh wait, it actually took 10 years due to guerrilla warfare. NK has a vast amount of underground bases and pathways. Discounting them because of their land mass size is silly. They are technologically advanced and have a very powerful military, the opposite of Iraq. Plus the majority of the land mass is occupied by poor starving people. Fighting them would be no picnic, unless they just decided to nuke the country, but that would have devastating effects on the water and would destroy the earth in that area for 50-60 years and probably only kill off the poor people, while the rich / military folk hide out underground.
^ North Korea isn't massively landlocked like Iraq. Plus it's Southern border is an ally and across the waters to the East is an ally. Iraq is a completely set of circumstances. US could set up ships and tee off day and night with Tomahawk missiles without putting infantry on the grounds. Also, NK is flat except for 1 major mountain range in the northern part which borders South China and if they take to the mountains, their southern cities will be sacked. Also, the US will destroy their bridges and maintain the waterways so they can't fish. It would be a wrap in under 1 year.
The US has major military bases in Hawaii. Pearl Harbor is still a significant base for the Navy although not as large as San Diego or Norfolk. There are also marine and army bases in Hawaii. It's also one of the few places that could and I stress the could be in the range of any weapons they have. I don't think they can reach Hawaii but they might be able to reach Guam, The Marshall Islands and Alaska.
You also have to think that North Korea has a standing army and you're not going to war with radical insurgents who have no uniform. The South Koreans as you said are an ally although I do think it could turn into a situation where your friend by day is your enemy while you are sleeping.
