And judging by how the 8 teams in front of us have acted recently, it not only looks as if Geno will be there, but also that the "premium" pass rushers might be gone when we're on the clock. Call me retarded, but I seriously hope for a trade with TB, so we can have the extra pick to get Geno and a BPA.
It's not so simple as just taking a chance on one. If the Jets spend their 1st rounder on Geno this year then it's at least 3-4 years before they can move on. This is why the first 5 picks aren't QB every single draft. Geno is not this great can't miss prospect that so many are pushing. He generates so much of his stats against non-ranked teams. Everybody in front of the Jets (except Lions) is overpaying big time to get retread, backup QBs to avoid Geno Smith. How can that not set off alarm bells? The more I watch Geno Smith, the more I realize Tavon Austin is worthy of the #9 pick. I'd rather see Tavon Austin in the first & the best QB available in the 2nd or 3rd round.
That's simply not true. Before rookie salary cap rule that may have been the case due to the financial investment high 1st rounders warranted. It simply is not the case anymore. Drafting Geno would not preclude the Jets from selecting another QB in the near future.
Generally a 1st round QB gets 3 bad years before a franchise moves on. In Sanchez's case its 4 and counting. Gabbert has gotten two and it looks as if he might get a third this year. But I do agree with you the rookie salary cap change has made it much easier to move on from taking a bad QB. But in all likelihood if we took Smith with the nine we would be waiting 3+ years before we move on. But if we take a QB in rounds 2-5 and he flops its very likely we will be looking for one in round one next year. Round 2+ QBs simply do not get the same margin of error or time to develop as a 1st rounder. This is one of the reasons I would be against taking Smith with the 9. If he is another Sanchez then we are in all likelihood stuck with him for 3+ more years. I don't see Smith being a better prospect than a Ponder, Gabbert sanchez, Freeman, Locker or Dalton type prospect. Very hit and miss. If we are going to take a risky type QB I would much rather it be a round 2-5 guy that we can kick to the curb faster and move on our search for a franchise type QB. It seems a lot of other NFL teams are taking this approach with the 2013 QBs and are looking ahead to 2014. Which scares me as there may be a lot of teams wanting to trade up for a franchise QB in 2014.
You tell me how realistic this scenario seems to you: 2013 - Geno Struggles ... Well he wasn't surrounded by enough talent. As a rookie QB, the Jets were asking him to do to much. Give this guy more help. 2014 - Geno struggles ... Well it's only year 2. Eli/Drew/etc... all needed 3 years to finally put it together. 2015 - Geno struggles .... well it's only year 3. List of all these great HOF QB & how they needed at least 4 years to put it together. There's also that logic that Jets don't want to release him & have him turn successful elsewhere. So let's just give him one more chance. 2016, It's time to consider drafting a young QB. ==================== Is that scenario so impossible to believe? To me it's very believable. I'd like to grab a franchise QB. We've gotta be careful though to not want it so bad that we don't reach blindly. It's a mistake that takes years to correct. I don't believe in Geno Smith enough to just blindly give him 3-4 years. However, I do acknowledge he's the best QB prospect in this draft. I'd love to grab him in the 2nd round. Since that's impossible, I'd rather pass & grab another QB prospect who I don't think is much further behind in 2nd or 3rd round.
You worded it so much better than myself. Bolded sentences is exactly what I'm trying to say. Haven't seen enough in Geno Smith to take him & blindly wait 3+ years.
And what equally scares me is that the only way to get a true franchise QB prospect in the '14 draft, we'd have to tank this season (one win tops), as there is virtually 0% chance of the bottom three teams letting go of their 1-3 picks next year. Only way would be to trade the world for it, which would get us nowhere for a looong time.
Let the year play out. Even after the top 3 picks, there's a possibility of solid QB prospect appearing. Not the elite can't miss prospect but there could still be something solid. ==== Also, Redskins traded a ton of picks for RG3. There's no way they regret that trade.
Totally agree, just the homer in me wanting Geno to be solid and him having a year of growing pains in '13 rather than '14. While the pessimist in me isn't too sure we'd be better off with QB X from '14 needing equal amount of grooming, who could be ready to deliver in '15-16. Bah, it's a fookin hornet's nest of scenarios. In Idzik I trust.
So take a QB outside of the top 3 picks next year, not on a can't miss prospect, but someone solid with upside? That is no different than taking chance on Geno this year, which is my entire point. Drafting a QB does not at all mean you are blindly married to a guy for 4 years. If value and the right talent presents themself in future drafts, you still pull the trigger.
Why is that scary? Indianapolis did it. Ask them if they are glad they tanked. One terrible season is not too much to ask for a Pro Bowl QB. Hell, we've had plenty of terrible seasons that never amounted to an average QB. If I'm Idzik, I'm doing everything I can to set this team up for an epically poor season this year (which is just about the only reason I'm not flipping my s--- that Sanchez is still the QB).
I think that is definitely possible. But more importantly, I think its possible with anyone that we draft. I dont think Geno makes it more likely that the above happens. Quite honestly, you couldnt ask for a better fit, schematically. He's everything MM should want. Taking Geno at the 9 would not be reaching blindly. He's consistently ranked inside the top 10 and top 15, so if he was there at 9, he could arguably be BPA. Like many have said, if Geno is there at 9, it could likely mean that Jordan, Jones, and Ansah are all gone. Werner may even be gone also. Ive said this many times, but I truly hope that if Geno ends up on the team, the Jets would be smart and start Gerrard or a vet at QB. Like you said, the Jets currently do not have enough on offense around Geno, so it would be wise to try and build the offense through the rest of the draft and let them develop first while Geno is learning on the bench. If we got the 13, grabbing Austin would certainly give him a good comfort zone and take pressure off of him. Adding a RB like Gio in the 2nd or Franklin in the 3rd would also allow for more emphasis to be put in the ground game. A TE like Kelce in the 3rd, or Escobar could add a nice security blanket up the middle.
Looks like we disagree here. I really think franchises are blindly married to 1st round QB prospects for 3-4 years minimum. Even with the rookie salary cap, a coach & GM want to see their 1st round QB have maximum opportunities before moving on. As for Geno equal to the prospects next year? I'm not a believer in Geno. If you think Geno is just as good as anything coming out next year (outside the top 2-3 picks) then yes it makes sense to pull the trigger. Pulling the trigger this year does not change the fact Idzik is not gonna draft another serious QB prospect for at least 3-4 years.
They could if RG3 has injury problems his whole career. It was also a very unique situation because the Rams had their QB in place and had faith in him. The likelihood of a team next year not needing a QB in the top 3 is very unlikely.
I dont understand this "blindly wait" stuff... Such a negative connotation for something every team must do. For some it works out, and others it does not. It usually works out with the franchise that develops the QB correctly. At this point we have to put our faith in Idzik and hope that he can learn from our past mistakes. And its not like if he completely shits the bed, they are just going to let it be. If thats what you mean by blindly waiting, I dont see that happening.
If we draft Geno I want him to sit until the bye week or if until we're out of playoff contention However we do need to get him a clean pocket so the O-Line is a must fix along with the pass rush on defense, another WR after this year since Tone will be gone and a TE
You say this after one year. Let's let RG3's career play out a few years before saying that. They got an elite player but their team will have future holes that they can't fix and RG3 isn't the healthiest of Qbs.
Sure but injuries can happen to anyone, the pick itself is still worth it. Geno Smith could have a career ending injury during camp, so could anyone. Doesn't change the value of the pick. So what they are saying is still valid whether you take the Colts or not Redskins approach as long as you get an elite QB it is worth it in the long run. This is why I would prefer to either tank next season or get extra picks from the Revised trade and trade up to get a player that may be more likely to be a franchise guy than Smith. It might suck next year but I would rather have one season being terrible and getting a franchise guy we can build around for years and years than having a never ending string of mediocrity.
The Jets tanking. And that doesn't mean do poorly. That means completely making sure we lose every single game. In Idzik's first year as GM, possibly dictating his career reputation as GM. In the season Rex have a HC career to save. In a season where Woody is trying to remove the circus stamp. In the season the Super Bowl is held in our home stadium. And what if Bridgewater and Johnny Football for whatever reason shows signs of not being all that. Would it be worth losing face in front of us fans (it's not like Woody's having a jolly good time selling tickets as it is), or showing the world we're just as cunty as Indy (while they still had HoF Peyton) ? Personally, I wouldn't mind it if it guaranteed us a franchise QB. But let's just say I doubt it'll happen.
I bet the person RG3 is just as suited to survive an NFL career just as any other football player. What I do think though, is that the "double-threat" style QB will not be too long lived, once we all get to see the injury rates on these QBs will shoot thru the roof. That's the biggest thing I see when watching Johnny Football - heck of a player, but I just can't imagine him surviving long term with that playing style.
