Jones and Jordan have the production though. They've both actually played at a very high level in college ball. Ansah has the one year. He's like Whitney Mercilus last year and should probably go in a similar range in the 20's. Mingo just doesn't belong in the same group as the first two guys above. He doesn't have the skills they do and the numbers don't really stack up either. If you get into a Mingo or Ansah conversation that's a tough place to be. Both of them are boom or bust for different reasons and neither of them is solid enough value to take in the top 10. The Jets need to get a player out of the 9 pick. They can't afford any more projects at this point. They've spent too many picks moving up for solid players and trading for vets and on projects. They need a player. The 9 pick this year will have about the same impact on 2015 that the 6 pick in 2008 was going to have on 2011. If the Jets get real value on the pick they've got a cornerstone on that window-opening team. If they draft a bust there then 2015 is going to be a lot less than it would have been otherwise.
That's where he needs to improve. I doubt the jets would be asking him to do much of that early on. He'd be the "speed rusher" this team has lacked over the last few seasons. Meanwhile as time goes on he adds bulk to that long lengthy frame & learns the proper leverage to set the edge.By year 2 he starts weak side & can hold his own.
If they project that Mingo has the frame and skill set to be a dominating pass rusher then they should draft him but it's a tough projection to make. They really can't afford to screw this pick up even if means taking one of the guards.
The only guy who doesn't worry me is Jordan. At the very least you're getting a plus athlete who can cover in the flat & set the edge. Pass rush remains a question mark but he has all the tools. Everyone of the other guys including Jones has red flags. Problem is, there is such a premium on dynamic pass rushers that they are no longer making it out of the top 15 regardless of the risk they present. My only point that I've been trying to make on many threads on TGG is that Mingo is really no different than Jones,Ansah,Werner,etc. ALL of them are boom/bust. Mingo makes some sense over the others due to the fact that he is the purest SPEED RUSHER. Speed rusher has been a need for the Jets since 2006 when John Abraham left. At the very least, if he doesn't properly develop as a 3 down player..he can still contribute as an edge rusher & in sub packages. He can STILL be a difference maker in such a role. I'm not sure the same can be said from the others. Jones has all kinds of red flags including size,health & triangle while Ansah needs work in the weight room as well as major work w/ his technique.
As a pass rusher Mingo needs as much or more work as Ansah. All the scouting reports say basically the same thing: he's a speed rusher with one move around the corner and if it fails he's got nothing else at this point. And as to the Jets not having a speed rusher the last couple of years, that's inaccurate, they didn't have a good speed rusher. Maybin was pure speed and nothing else.
Mingo is a better athlete than Maybin and he keeps his balance a lot better than Maybin. Maybin couldn't keep on weight and slipped around everywhere. He would go flying if he was pushed by someone on the o-line. Mingo holds his ground a lot better. If the Jets can't get Jordan, the pick has got to be between Mingo and Ansah. Jones will flop hard in the nfl. Undersized and ridiculously unathletic. There have been plenty of players who produce in college, but don't have the size or athleticism to make it in the NFL. Jones will be the next on that list unless he goes to somewhere like Baltimore or Piitsburg
Why would Pitt & Baltimore be places for Jones to succeed but not the Jets? Pitt & Baltimore are franchises that do a lot of things right (especially winning). But Rex has shown that he's also very capable of developing young defensive players. Coples & MoWilk both have shown development. DeMario Davis is an unknown but he's going to get his shot to start this upcoming season. Rex being able to get production out of Maybin is also a big plus. Idzik is GM but he's not gonna draft an OLB that Rex isn't onboard with. If Jarvis Jones is drafted by the Jets then it means Rex thinks he can coach that guy into something productive.
I agree with Kurt that Mingo is one of many boom/bust pass rushers. It's hard for me to project Ansah, Moore, Jones, Werner as significantly better or worse, which pains me since Jones has just been so bad in workouts. Mingo would absolutely fit a need on this team as a speed rusher. But I wouldn't touch him at 9. Trade down first, then go for him, I wouldn't complain. But he's too much of a risk at 9. I don't trust him to be an every down LB, which we need after losing our starters last season. Plus, at 9, I don't want a one-trick pony unless he's elite at that one trick, and Mingo wasn't that good this year. There is the occasional flash of WOW this guy is a great athlete but not enough production. Not lifting is another red flag.
Does this also mean that you wouldn't touch Jones, Moore, Ansah or Werner at the 9 since they are all boom/bust pass rushers? I think to say that they are all equal as of now is too simplistic. In my opinion Jones will be the BPA at the 9, while Mingo won't be the BPA until the mid 20s.
I think they're better, but not significantly better. If I had to rank them, I would say: 1a. Jones 1b. Ansah 3. Werner 4. Mingo 5. Moore But I'm not confident in that order at all. Not convinced Jones is a good enough athlete to translate his production in college to the NFL with below average size AND athleticism. Not convinced Ansah can be a 3-4 OLB, though I love his potential outside in a 4-3 if we go that route. Not convinced Werner is a smooth enough athlete to play OLB. Not convinced at all Mingo is strong enough to hold up on the outside for 3 downs. Not convinced Moore is a good enough athlete or skilled enough to be a dynamic OLB. Very tough year to project this draft. Makes guys like Austin and Patterson more appealing. Even Jonathan Cooper and Chance Warmack. Would love to trade down... The good thing is I trust Rex to mold front 7 guys, so if the Jets choose any of these guys, I will think they're in good hands, at least for one season.
