Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

GFS came north and this now has to really be watched. One more trend tomorrow night and we are looking at a spring snowstorm with model agreement.

This storm is one of the more southern models and still gives CMAN over 6 inches of snow. Gives NYC 3 to 6...south jersey over 8. South Jersey would get more than cman because the storm hits the coast and blows up..but what does it do after that? We are talking about a swing of 50 miles that would give LI...NYC...All of NJ....Eastern PA a big snow storm. Again, this is going by the most southern track model. One more trend and boom.

This really has to be watched and hopefully by tomorrow night there is even more agreement.

 

and amazingly the euro went south so you have the best model saying south of the area and mostly all of the other models north to some extent. If the Euro is right, nyc would be getting light snow max.

Soo....no agreement.

 

lol. MURRELL..how fitting would that be that he gets dumped on again.

FLAJETFAN: Timing looks to be very early morning Monday and all day Monday..which is now very important.

Accumulations have to be looked at because of the timing. Temps will be above freezing for most...although almost everyone east of LI will see mostly snow. But because its mostly during the day...numbers could be down. Now Monday night is a different story but I think the heavy part will be done by then.

Just read the National Weather Service discussion and they had a few interesting tidbits also. Ratios for this storm will be around 5 to 1. Meaning the ole 10 inches of snow for 1 inch of rain will not be the ratio.

If you get 1 inch of rain/ 5 inches of snow..big and i mean huge difference.

Those that remember the blizzard of 96 is a perfect example. We only received 1.3 inches of precip with that storm but ratios were close to 17-20 to 1. very cold...which lead to the huge numbers and over 2 feet of snow for many.

Anyway..Im blabbing here. You get the point. This will be an annoying wet snow event that could be much greater if the storm produces its own cold air pool like the last storm. If its just a bit weaker than modeled, you get 1-3. Right now, I would think EAST OF NYC gets more than that...say 3-6 and cman could get even more than that.

 

Oh...and the NAM just put down over 2 feet of snow for most everyone west of I95. Just put that in there JUST IN CASE it hits...and then we can say we found our favorite model. Just that no other model agrees with it now.

 

lol...yeah..cman should get awards for that avatar.

Models trending south continues..breaking news. I for one would be ok with that. Lets see what happens tonite. Actually shows a decent storm for DC and philly...A.C. TOO.

 

Real quick update on this storm. Its amazing how close this is to being something huge for NYC and north jersey...but the cutoff line is incredible.

Example..and Im just using cities so you get the point..this isnt how it will probably end up...but like Trenton NJ could get 8 inches of snow...and Paterson NJ could get 2. Where the cutoff is the numbers go down dramatically but right now..many models agreeing that some areas down the Jersey shore could end up with their biggest snows in years...perhaps as much as 8 to 10. Can that be in March? Perhaps.

But the bottom line is the models trended back north tonite but perhaps not enough to give NYC and north jersey huge snows. But it will not take much for that to happen.

A 40 mile swing could be the difference between 10 or 2. Running out of time for agreement with models though...so again..its nowcast time starting tomorrow night.

 

Oh...and are Conn family looks to be out of the woods totally with this one...again...dramatic cutoff in precip as of NOW.

 

Nah Drew...dont think so...i really think the numbers that are being put out on the weather channel etc. are overdone and Im a bit of an optimist.

Had a negative write up for cman but just looked at the NAM staying consistant with the high numbers...so CMAN..hope you get it..but I would think a bit less...Hope Im wrong!!

North jersey and CBG to a larger extent is really pushing it to get over 3 inches...it just hits a wall this far north..again..lets see tonight. My sons 17th birthday for the older one today! Wont be on until later tonight.