well up here we didnt get the 16-18 mr. weather man on channel 8 news said we get . kinda bummed out.
Jay ,,,wife just asked me " what does your jet friend say about Monday " :lol: I personally do not want anymore snow ,,,,,,I am in yard mode,,,,spring mode plus when it turns to mush the next day and is not around for long it sucks . I also have co workers and friends asking the same question as my wife,,,Jay you are getting to be big time my friend !
lol..ty cbg. I too have had it..in fact took the dog for a walk tonite and its freezing..and cant wait for it to end. Tonite the GFS had the storm a bit less strength but had the storm. Most every other model had the storm storm. The Euro model had the storm but forced it out to sea. Lets hope..but thats where we are tonight. Models all winter long have had storms only to lose them to some extent in the mid range and then grab them back 4 or 5 days before. Thursday will tell the tale of this thing. I feel a bit more positive that we will not have a full blown up blizzard...but lets give it 24 more hours to make that official. It still has a ton of potential.
Yeah..it really bombed north because the primary storm never let go. The secondary that was to form and ride up the coast never took off...so those south got more precip. Big bust up north.
checking now brook. As of yesterday, all the models show a storm but to different magnitudes. Will update in about an hour.
Storm as of now gets going a bit late for northern folks..north of central NJ...but thats not to say it will not change. I really do believe it will come more north only because that has been the trend of the models all winter long. They just come north as we get closer. With that said, right now, because the phase is too late this will probably not be a bomber. 4-8 for those that are in the zone. THIS CAN CHANGE. Its a great pattern...just that the models have been consistant for 48 hours now that the bomb of a storm they had 3 days ago will not happen. Lets see what happens to the later models tonight.
Models came back north. Do not think the weather tv guys will say anything but we have to keep an eye on it because that is the truth...my gut tells me its a possible 5-10 storm with even more potential. Have seen this movie before. Trends. Lets see where we are tomorrow night...and by Saturday night we narrow it down. Also, the models have moved the timing back to where it was earlier in the week...Late Sunday/Monday
Just checked every model except the Euro model which comes out in half hour and have to say...and this time with not much delight, that its looking like a pretty big storm Sunday night and Monday. Too much consensus right now except the Euro which has been south..if it moves north..we have a solution and I believe it will. Amounts? Depends on the models. Low models say 3-6 high models (not including the nam which is out of its mind with a over 2 foot storm) is around a foot. Somewhere in the middle with room to grow..or room to go down if the storm stays south and that is the only thing that could save this from not hitting. West of 95 is mostly all snow and east has a good chance too.
And the Euro model is still south. This is a red flag. Hasnt really budged. So here is a perfect example of the Euro USUALLY being the dominant correct model against the most every other model. Should be interesting.
Hey Jay do the models say anything about it warming up anytime soon? Don't know how far out they go but it's got to at some point, right?
Was watching some models last night and a discussion was going on that its possible for our area to break a record for not hitting 50? I believe for the next 10 days still. Its been showing up for a long time that temps will stay below normal and sometimes well below normal for at least another two weeks..and that truly sucks. Storm stays south for the most part on some other models now so it looks like this will not be a huge event. And the models show an EVENT next Monday..and and EVENT the monday after that...so lets just keep it simple. Some will still get snow this monday..and some will get snow next monday...but there is no reason to say anything other than that because the models keep showing these huge storms only to become more mellow as they get closer. If it changes..will mention.
I will tell you this...latest models are showing cman getting 4-8 and I wouldnt be surprised at all if thats a lock right now. His area has been in a good spot for the past 48 hours. Tomorrow night..dinner with the wife and firends so I will be on at arouind midnight...and at that time this will lock in for everyone. Will be on later tonite too but not sure much changes..we will see.
Good thing I kept the bigboy up front in the garage then.. Its been snowing here all week off and on with flurries and such. I think Punxsutawney Phil is about to be fired here in PA. He really blew it this year. :grin::grin:
lol..cman..if the models continue to trend the way they have the last 12 hours..you will have your biggest snow storm if at least a few years..so keep that big boy handy. And brook, there is no spring in sight...nothing. Horrible. BUT...HAVE TO SAY...startiing to lean to a very possible major snowstorm for those west of i95 and a pretty decent snow storm for those even east. The models are starting to trend that way. Pretty ridculous considering the time of year right now but even though many laugh at the NAM model..remember last storm I was saying the weather people were down playing this model because it does over due precip totals...but 2 storms ago when everyone laughed about it putting down 50 inches..when the storm got close...the NAM became realistic..and put down 2 feet of snow for parts of MASS and CONN. But everyone just through the model out. I really dont think you can throw it out..you look at it from this time frame and know that even though its calling for 2 feet of snow west of i95, it will come into its range better in the next 24 hours and all models are leaning towards its TRACK. Once the track is nailed down, then you can take all of the models and see what direction they are going in and get a decent shot at a number. I could be wrong but this storm has the look of over a foot of snow for many. It has everything the last storm had except it has a few things more in its favor. 1. Slower movement...there is a lot of blocking up north so it hits the coast and crawls for about 12 hours. 2. Colder air. Many that received rain will get snow. Those that got snow and changed over to sleet to keep numbers down will get all snow. 3. Much closer to the coast. It does have a very sharp cutoff line north. While some in NNJ could get 8 to 12...some in central NY could get a dusting. Mass too...might not get much at all. All I need to see tonight is if the GFS comes north and is a bit more powerful and the EURO comes north to lock in that there will probably be a huge snow storm for many. Will know in the next 2 hours. If the models stay with what they have been doing..a bit more south...then this turns into a huge question mark that hopefully gets cleared up tomorrow night. There are signs that this storm could be one of those shut down storms by Monday night and Tuesday morning.
